Sep 15, 2026 · 32 min

AI spending and resilient growth keep rates higher for longer

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 15th, 2026

The episode connects public resistance to AI with a potentially durable infrastructure boom and a monetary-policy challenge that could keep long-term yields elevated.

3 key takeaways

1Ted Mortonson says investors should separate AI facts from hype while infrastructure spending continues despite public backlash.
2Guneet Dhingra sees resilient growth, fiscal support, and AI investment forcing the Federal Reserve toward multiple rate hikes.
3Harvey Schwartz describes strong private-market opportunities while warning that deficits, deglobalization, and security spending support structurally higher rates.

Don't miss

Guneet Dhingra lays out a projected range of three to six rate hikes as resilient growth and AI investment keep pressure on policy.

The brief

Ted Mortonson argues that investors should look past AI hysteria to liability rules, open-source competition, pricing pressure, and the durability of the infrastructure spending cycle.

Public skepticism and data-center moratoriums are testing the technology industry’s case for AI, even as Mortonson sees infrastructure investment continuing for years.

Guneet Dhingra links resilient growth, fiscal support, consumer strength, and AI spending to elevated long-term Treasury yields and a possible three-to-six-hike cycle.

Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz says portfolio companies remain resilient and investment opportunities are strong, while deficits, deglobalization, and security spending point to higher rates.

Schwartz also outlines Carlyle’s use of machine learning and its minority investment in the Seattle Seahawks, framing AI responsibility and sports as social questions.

What was said on this episode

15 statements · 5 positive · 8 negative · 2 neutral

Ted Mortonsonon Federal AI regulationNegative3:25
Federal regulation is not the best approach for the AI industry.
“I'm not a huge believer in the federal government regulating an industry.”
Listen at 3:25
Ted Mortonsonon Industry self-regulationPositive3:30
Cloud companies and AI investors should protect the industry through self-regulation.
“the cloud titans and even the VCs that have funded these companies really have to go forward and protect the industry and self-regulate.”
Listen at 3:30
Ted Mortonsonon Anthropic IPONegative3:59
Anthropic exposed its IPO to regulatory review through liability concerns.
“Anthropic opened themselves up for a review of their IPO”
Listen at 3:59
Ted Mortonsonon Politicians regulating AINegative4:14
Politicians are poorly equipped to regulate advanced AI technology.
“bringing in the politicians, I think, is probably one of the worst mistakes because, quite frankly, they're not equipped to understand this technology.”
Listen at 4:14
Ted Mortonsonon NVIDIA Nemotron and Palantir combinationNegative5:03
NVIDIA Nemotron and Palantir are affecting frontier-model pricing and availability.
“that combination is impacting the frontier model's pricing and availability.”
Listen at 5:03
Ted Mortonsonon Open-source AI modelsNegative5:23
Open-source AI models are driving token costs sharply lower.
“those token costs go right through the floor.”
Listen at 5:23
Ted Mortonsonon Frontier-model pricingNeutral5:28
Open-source token costs will strongly influence frontier-model pricing long term.
“that influences. to a great degree, what the frontier model's pricing model looks long term.”
Listen at 5:28
Ted Mortonsonon Open-source AI regulationNegative5:46
Regulatory efforts to constrain open-source AI are dangerous.
“that's very dangerous.”
Listen at 5:46
Ted Mortonsonon Artificial IntelligencePositive6:50
AI has produced major advances in healthcare and productivity.
“we have had massive strides in health care. massive strides in productivity.”
Listen at 6:50
Ted Mortonsonon AI infrastructure investment tradePositive7:56
The AI infrastructure investment trade will continue for years.
“this infrastructure trade is going to go on for years.”
Listen at 7:56
Ted Mortonsonon Semiconductor indexNegative8:00
The semiconductor index’s 5.8% decline was an unjustifiably negative reaction.
“the stock action you saw on the semiconductor index being down 5.8 percent-ish yesterday was a horrible reaction to what reality is.”
Listen at 8:00
Ted Mortonsonon Interest rates and energy pricesPositive8:52
Interest rates and energy prices are near their peaks.
“I think rates and energy are pretty close to a peak.”
Listen at 8:52
Ted Mortonsonon Market assets after selloffPositive8:56
Investors should quickly prepare to buy assets after the market decline.
“I would get your shopping list ready very, very quickly, because I think after yesterday, there's some incredible buys.”
Listen at 8:56
Guneet Dhingraon 10-year Treasury yieldNegative12:54
Ten-year Treasury yields may need to exceed 5% to slow the economy.
“you might need to see even higher yields from 5% 10-year to have some slowdown at some point.”
Listen at 12:54
Guneet Dhingraon Federal Reserve inflation policyNeutral13:54
The Federal Reserve must convince bond markets it has a credible inflation plan.
“the Fed needs to convince the bond market that there is a real plan to solve inflation.”
Listen at 13:54

Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.