Sep 5, 2026 · 1h 47m
Buyback blackout leaves markets exposed to sharper volatility
With Buybacks Ending, A Market Correction Is Not Off The Table | Lance Roberts
With corporate support paused and market breadth weakening, investors face a more fragile path through economic, geopolitical, and election uncertainty.
- 1A stronger jobs report could reshape Federal Reserve expectations, Treasury positioning, and the outlook for interest rates.
- 2Weak breadth, seasonal volatility, and narrow leadership raise the risk of a pullback even if major indexes hold near highs.
- 3Lance Roberts argues that valuation, drawdown tolerance, and disciplined hedging matter more than competing with algorithmic traders.
Don't miss
Lance Roberts lays out how puts, cash, duration adjustments, and profit-taking can modestly defend a portfolio before midterm volatility.
The brief
Lance Roberts says the corporate buyback blackout could leave markets more vulnerable to geopolitical headlines just as breadth weakens and seasonal volatility rises.
A surprisingly strong jobs report complicates the Federal Reserve outlook, while Treasury operations and hedge-fund positioning could create opportunities in bonds.
The hosts question whether narrow market leadership can carry indexes higher into the midterms, especially as inflation, Iran, and congressional control add uncertainty.
Roberts argues that individuals should not race algorithms or treat buy-and-hold as automatic: starting valuations, time horizon, and drawdown discipline shape outcomes.
The conversation’s practical answer is modest defense—puts, cash, duration changes, and profit-taking—rather than a dramatic attempt to predict every market turn.
What was said on this episode
34 statements · 14 positive · 12 negative · 1 mixed · 7 neutral
The market could correct 3–5% toward its 50-day or 100-day moving average.
“a correction back to the 50-day moving average maybe the 100-day moving average which would be three to five percent certainly isn't off the table right now”
Listen at 1:35
Kevin Warsh will likely leave interest rates unchanged while awaiting more data.
“my expectation is I don't think he hikes rates. I don't think he cuts rates. I think he acknowledges the data and says we want to see a little bit more data first before we make a decision.”
Listen at 8:46
The Treasury operation initially involves approximately $4 billion.
“This is about $4 billion.”
Listen at 13:34
Approximately 50 hedge funds own 8.5% of the Treasury market.
“we've got basically 50 hedge funds that own 8.5% of the treasury market”
Listen at 14:19
Lance will buy long-duration assets if Treasury shorts begin covering.
“When there's a tradable opportunity and we start to see those shorts have to cover, then I'll purposely go in and buy some long duration assets to capture that short covering.”
Listen at 15:50
Current market breadth is weak, creating market concerns.
“Market breadth is decently weak. So there are certainly some concerns here.”
Listen at 17:09
Large options expiration may increase market volatility.
“there's definitely some bias there for a pickup in volatility”
Listen at 19:11
A 3–5% market correction remains possible despite ongoing consolidation.
“a correction back to the 50-day moving average, maybe the 100-day moving average, which would be 3% to 5%, certainly isn't off the table right now”
Listen at 19:55
Rapid sector rotations are making portfolio management difficult.
“there's really no rhyme or reason why. And we've just seen these very rapid rotations within the markets.”
Listen at 22:18
Investors should sometimes avoid taking action during market consolidation.
“Sometimes the best action to take is not to do anything.”
Listen at 24:36
Retail investors should not compete with algorithms and should wait after major headlines.
“do not play that game. If you're managing your own money and a headline comes out like today, wait and let the markets just react to it and then see where the market stabilizes”
Listen at 26:42
Frequent individual trading tends to underperform the market.
“if you trade often, you are going to wind up underperforming the market”
Listen at 31:55
Buy-and-hold investing does not work for most people over the long term.
“why buy and hold doesn't actually work for most people long term”
Listen at 37:05
Starting at 40-times earnings implies a negative 2.6% ten-year return.
“valuations are at 40 times earnings today. What does that tell us about future? If I'm 50 today and I'm going to retire at 65 and I'm investing today at 40 times earnings, that's a negative 2.6% rate of return over the next 10 years based on those valuations.”
Listen at 37:57
High-quality bonds may provide a locked-in 5% return over ten years.
“If I can buy bonds paying 5%. on average right now, either corporate or treasuries, and I can lock in a 5% rate of return over the next 10 years”
Listen at 39:29
Prudent portfolio management can beat a projected negative 2.6% ten-year return.
“I'm probably going to be able to beat that negative 2.6% rate of return over the next 10 years by being just a little bit prudent about how I invest and navigate the markets.”
Listen at 40:14
Buy-and-hold is attractive when valuations are around 15-times earnings.
“I'm a huge fan of buy and hold at 15 times earnings.”
Listen at 43:36
The market is currently inexpensive relative to forward earnings growth estimates.
“the market's actually the cheapest it's been in like 20 years”
Listen at 45:10
A recession-driven decline in earnings estimates would quickly make the market expensive.
“if something comes along like a recession and those earnings growth estimates drop? All of a sudden, that market becomes extremely expensive very quickly.”
Listen at 45:18
Lance’s options portfolio is adding inexpensive S&P puts as downside insurance.
“we've been dollar cost averaging a bit. And so we have one port. Again, I don't want my clients that listen to this show. as well as others, we run a lot of different portfolios. We have a portfolio structure that uses options in it. And in that portfolio structure, we've been adding S&P puts and we'll probably add some more on Monday just because they are so cheap.”
Listen at 52:46
Lance’s portfolios have increased defensiveness through duration shifts, cash, and profit-taking.
“we've kind of shifted duration within the bond portfolio. We've raised a bit of cash. We rebalanced portfolios a couple of weeks ago. It took in some profits.”
Listen at 53:30
Markets should advance strongly in November and December.
“the end of this year, November, December, we should have a fairly strong advance in the markets”
Listen at 54:01
Lance’s S&P 500 target is 7,900.
“we've got a 7,900 target on the S&P”
Listen at 54:26
Republicans will probably lose the House but retain the Senate.
“there's a decently high probability that Republicans lose the House. They'll probably keep the Senate, but they'll probably lose the House.”
Listen at 56:28
The House may change party control while the Senate remains unchanged.
“I think there's a decent risk that the House flips. The Senate remains the same.”
Listen at 57:35
A new Iran negotiation may begin within three weeks before the election.
“I think in the next three weeks, I would not be surprised to see a new negotiation starting to happen. to try to get a little bit of leverage going into the election.”
Listen at 58:15
The Democratic Socialists of America’s economic direction is undesirable.
“The DSA is certainly not the path that we want to go down economically.”
Listen at 1:00:20
Lobbies, PACs, and corporate campaign donations should be eliminated.
“We should get rid of lobbies. There should be no such thing as a lobby. There should be no PACs. Corporations should not have the ability to donate to political campaigns.”
Listen at 1:07:43
U.S. official gold reserves are statutorily valued at $42.22 per ounce.
“The gold stock that we have in the country is valued at $42 an ounce, right? It's $42.22 to be exact. And that's due to statute.”
Listen at 1:10:08
Revaluing U.S. gold to market prices would create roughly $1 trillion in accounting value.
“if you said the value is about 100 times what it is on the books, that's about a trillion dollars in value”
Listen at 1:11:35
Revaluing gold would change accounting but not the deficit trajectory or fiscal math.
“A one-time balance sheet markup doesn't touch the deficit trajectory. You revalued an asset that really you have no intention of selling because it's a reserve asset, which changes the accounting, not the fiscal math by any stretch of the imagination.”
Listen at 1:13:23
Gold revaluation could damage perceptions of the dollar’s reserve-currency status.
“what it potentially does is changes the outlook on how people view the reserve currency internationally”
Listen at 1:21:59
Planned cheat days can support adherence to diet and exercise programs.
“cheat days are a very important process within the overall dieting and exercise process, because you have to reward yourself”
Listen at 1:31:00
A person’s current friend group strongly influences their position five years later.
“your friend group that you have today is going to be where you are in five years”
Listen at 1:38:07
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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