Oct 8, 2026 · 1h 16m
Campaign spending reveals which Senate races parties fear
Are These Senate Races Widening or Tightening? The Most Expensive Midterms Ever (with Dave Levinthal)
With Election Day less than a month away, money flows and ad buys may expose strategic priorities that polling and campaign claims obscure.
- 1Republican prospects are worsening in Georgia and North Carolina, while Michigan, Kansas, and possibly Texas remain competitive.
- 2Republican groups hold more cash, but spending is concentrating in races where party strategists see genuine danger or opportunity.
- 3The episode links campaign finance strategy to broader debates over foreign policy and banning congressional stock trading.
Don't miss
Dave Levinthal explains why spending decisions may identify the races party strategists genuinely fear, even when polling and campaign messaging suggest otherwise.
The brief
Justin’s polling tour finds Republican prospects worsening in Georgia and North Carolina, while Michigan, Kansas, and possibly Texas remain competitive weeks before Election Day.
Dave Levinthal argues that money can reveal campaign priorities more clearly than public claims: parties invest where they fear losing or see a late opening.
Texas is emerging as the biggest Senate spending battleground, with ads reaching beyond local markets as campaigns exploit cheaper statewide and national inventory.
Billionaires including George Soros, Elon Musk, and Jeff Yass are helping drive unprecedented spending across television, streaming, gaming, radio, and entertainment programming.
The conversation closes on strategic retreat, a possible late Republican push in Minnesota, and the political usefulness of congressional stock-trading bans that repeatedly fail legislatively.
What was said on this episode
41 statements · 17 positive · 13 negative · 2 mixed · 9 neutral
The Texas Senate race cannot currently be classified as tightening or widening.
“I'm going to put this one out of Texas Hold'em. I don't know if it's tightening or widening.”
Michigan Senate race is essentially a toss-up within the margin of error.
“This is essentially a toss-up race. It's well within the margin of error.”
Listen at 5:59
The Michigan Senate race is tightening.
“My verdict, is this race tightening or widening? I think it's tightening.”
Listen at 9:49
The Georgia Senate race is effectively over and widely separated.
“This this race is over. I will say it is wider than the Grand Canyon.”
Listen at 10:21
The Georgia Senate race is over.
“I think this is over.”
Listen at 10:31
The North Carolina Senate race is effectively over and widening.
“you are done and this race is wider than a waistband on Thanksgiving”
Listen at 11:57
The Texas Senate race is not as tight as Beto versus Cruz.
“My gut being here in Texas is that this is not as tight as Beto versus Cruz.”
Listen at 13:57
James Tallarico is popular but not a cult figure.
“I think Tallarico is popular, but he's not like a cult figure.”
Listen at 14:09
A Democratic victory in Texas would be historic.
“And I think if you're a Democrat, To win, it's historic.”
Listen at 14:25
Ken Paxton is an exceptionally uncharismatic political figure.
“Ken Paxton is an absolute void.”
Listen at 14:31
The Kansas Senate race is tightening substantially.
“there's only one way to describe that, and that is tighter than new underwear.”
Listen at 18:36
Kansas is tightening while Texas is either tight or widening for Democrats.
“We've got tightening races in Kansas. We have a race that is either tight or widening for the Democrat in the Lone Star State of Texas”
Listen at 19:10
Mike Rogers is a strong Senate candidate in Michigan.
“Mike Rogers is a strong candidate in Michigan.”
Listen at 20:28
Republicans have few favorable developments outside Michigan.
“Everything else is thumbs down. for Republicans.”
Listen at 20:37
Ideas prominent since 2016 have become more popular domestically and internationally.
“Almost all of the ideas that were brought to the fore in 2016, first in the United States and now internationally, have been found to be more popular than they were back then.”
Listen at 25:27
Microsoft and Adobe will likely challenge the suspensions through government or courts.
“I would probably suspect that they're going to challenge this either through the government or in court”
Listen at 28:29
Iran currently has limited strategic resources or options.
“It tells you that Iran is, they don't have a lot right now.”
Listen at 30:58
Further escalation would harm Iran more severely.
“They've got further escalation, which they know will hit them even harder.”
Listen at 31:03
Republican super PACs and party organizations have more money than Democrats.
“you got to give the advantage to the Republicans in the sense that their super PACs have more money. Their party apparatus has more money”
Listen at 35:55
Many Democratic candidates in key swing states have ample campaign funds.
“a lot of Democratic candidates, particularly those in key swing states where races are really close, they have plenty of money”
Listen at 37:44
Candidates receive lower advertising rates than super PACs and party committees.
“they're going to pay a lower rate for that by virtue of them being the actual candidate.”
Listen at 37:58
James Tallarico has a financial advertising advantage over Ken Paxton.
“you have a big advantage over Ken Paxton, the Republican, because your money goes a longer way as the candidate and you have more of that money than Ken Paxton has.”
Listen at 38:12
Buying national advertising was cheaper than buying individual Texas media markets in this case.
“when it is cheaper, at least in this narrow case, to purchase the whole country as opposed to purchasing in Dallas and Houston and San Antonio and Austin and Beaumont and Tyler and in the various media markets within Texas alone”
Listen at 41:27
National ad purchases for state races may recur in this election cycle.
“it may not be the only time that we see this happen. This may not be a one-off. This may not be an anomaly.”
Listen at 41:52
2026 midterm advertising spending may be comparable to presidential-cycle spending.
“We're talking about money spend being comparable, at least when it comes to advertising, against presidential election cycles, too.”
Listen at 46:52
Some billionaires are contributing hundreds of millions to midterm political entities.
“You have you have billionaires right now who are not spending money or giving money away to different super PACs and different entities in the tens of millions of dollars. They are doing it in the hundreds of millions of dollars for a midterm election cycle.”
Listen at 47:03
George Soros, Elon Musk, and Jeff Yass are among those making such contributions.
“That is George Soros. That is Elon Musk. That's Jeff Yass.”
Listen at 47:17
Political campaigns and groups should spend all available funds before Election Day.
“You want to get to zero. OK, you don't want anything left over. You want to empty your clip”
Listen at 49:28
Texas will likely receive the most Senate spending.
“Oh, yeah, that absolutely seems to be the case.”
Listen at 50:09
Maine will likely lead Senate spending on a per-capita basis.
“But spending per capita almost certainly is going to be Maine”
Listen at 50:34
An unusually competitive primary season generated much of the election spending.
“what was... a bonkers primary season in and of itself, which frankly has generated so much of the spending.”
Listen at 55:33
David Trone spent $25 million of his own money and lost Maryland’s Democratic primary.
“You had David Trone in Maryland spending $25 million of his own money in a House race only to lose the Democratic primary”
Listen at 56:05
Campaign spending flows are more trustworthy than campaign claims or polls.
“You can believe where the money is going.”
Listen at 58:05
Republicans are reducing investment in several potentially competitive races.
“Republicans in particular are just kind of giving up on at least a few races where they might have been competitive.”
Listen at 59:12
Campaign spending reveals parties’ real-time priorities among races.
“It will tell you a lot about where the national mind-meld groupthink is for either party and how they are prioritizing those resources”
Listen at 1:03:46
Money can often be the best indicator of party priorities.
“money can oftentimes be... the best barometer”
Listen at 1:04:22
Dozens of members violated the STOCK Act during the past year.
“We've caught dozens and dozens over the past year violating the Stop Trading Uncongressional Knowledge Act”
Listen at 1:07:20
The congressional stock-trading ban proposal may return after the election.
“there's a big question as to whether it will come back.”
Listen at 1:07:35
Democrats had an opportunity to ban or restrict congressional stock trading in 2021–2022.
“Democrats had an absolutely prime opportunity when they had congressional control in 2021 and 2022 to do exactly this and pass legislation that would ban this practice or otherwise restrict it.”
Listen at 1:09:46
A congressional stock-trading restriction passed the House but failed in the Senate.
“It passed the U.S. House. OK, but that died in the Senate.”
Listen at 1:10:04
More than 80% of voters across parties support action on congressional stock trading.
“more than 80 percent of Democrats, Republicans and independents across the board want something to happen on this”
Listen at 1:10:10
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.