Oct 10, 2026 · 1h 2m
Canadian microcaps weigh takeovers against a muted IPO market
Canada, Cannabis, Tariffs, Takeouts and Toronto 2026 Preview with Mathieu Martin, Ryan Irvine and Teagon Murray
The panel explains how financing conditions, tariffs, management quality, and conference research are reshaping Canadian microcap investing in 2026.
- 1Takeovers are gaining ground as private valuations and acquisition activity outpace new Canadian public listings.
- 2Tariff uncertainty favors microcaps with limited cross-border exposure, including software, services, royalties, and cannabis businesses.
- 3Conference research works best when investors compare industries, question management candidly, and build theses beyond financial statements.
Don't miss
The discussion of promotional management teams turns conference networking into an investment filter: prepare carefully, ask informed questions, and avoid repeat meetings when credibility remains weak.
The brief
Mathieu Martin, Ryan Irvine, and Teagon Murray examine Canadian microcaps in 2026, where rising financings coexist with muted IPOs and a growing stream of takeovers.
The panel argues that tariff uncertainty makes business exposure matter as much as valuation, steering attention toward software, services, royalties, cannabis, and other less cross-border-sensitive sectors.
Their research process is deliberately human: conferences reveal overlooked companies, management conversations test financial-statement narratives, and writing forces investors to organize scattered market signals.
Thinkific emerges as a possible deep-value or orphan-stock situation, while the Aurora Cannabis–Curaleaf hostile takeover battle illustrates the market’s shifting corporate dynamics.
Ahead of Planet Microcap Toronto, the guests describe screening companies, comparing sectors, and preparing informed questions—while treating promotional management as a reason for caution.
What was said on this episode
25 statements · 18 positive · 4 negative · 3 neutral
Canadian chartered banks are increasing cannabis-sector lending facilities.
“a number of the Canadian charters are actively stepping up in these facilities”
Listen at 4:33
Canadian bank valuations are at decade highs, warranting caution.
“we'd be cautious on the banks generally right now because you're looking at 10-year uh highs in terms of valuations”
Listen at 5:28
VersaBank can compound earnings above 20–25% annually for three to five years.
“we think they can compound earnings at like 20 to 25% plus for a three to five year period”
Listen at 6:26
Group Dynamite is attractive enough for more aggressive buying at current prices.
“we would be more aggressive buying Group Dynamite in its current range”
Listen at 8:06
Cannabis holdings drove most of the fund’s year-to-date performance.
“the cannabis portfolio. The cannabis part of the portfolio.”
Listen at 10:55
Canadian microcaps have experienced more takeovers than public listings recently.
“we've seen a lot more takeouts than GoPublic the last few years”
Listen at 12:02
Canadian IPO activity will remain subdued until public valuations exceed private-market valuations.
“Until we see premium valuations in the public markets compared to the private markets, I think it's going to be less active, I guess, in terms of IPOs.”
Listen at 12:45
Microcap acquisitions currently outnumber IPOs.
“you're seeing more takeouts than you're seeing IPOs”
Listen at 13:23
Investors evaluating junior miners should favor companies with cash flow.
“look for the, if you're looking at miners, look at companies with cashflow, please, please.”
Listen at 13:57
Junior mining is unsuitable for long-term small-cap business growth.
“if you want a real business that you're going to grow in the small cap sector long-term, don't go to the junior mining sector.”
Listen at 14:18
Some Canadian microcaps remain overlooked despite material business improvements.
“some of these names despite pretty material improvements in the underlying business they're still ignored”
Listen at 16:11
Tariffs do not materially affect Ryan’s cannabis holdings.
“tariffs is a non-issue for that business”
Listen at 25:16
Canadian companies have been resilient in managing tariff-related disruptions.
“the companies... within the Canadian market have been remarkably, in our opinion, resilient”
Listen at 26:05
Group Dynamite’s margins increased after tariff-related pricing and supplier changes.
“margins actually increased”
Listen at 26:54
Tariffs create opportunities for ADF Group through Canadian diversification and backlog growth.
“I think it creates some opportunities because now they're diversifying and they're increasing their backlog in Canada.”
Listen at 29:09
Mathieu is positioning his portfolio to minimize cross-border tariff exposure.
“I've been trying to build my portfolio to avoid that cross-border exposure for the most part.”
Listen at 30:23
Thinkific’s stock doubled after announcing restructuring and cost savings.
“the stock was trading for all like basically it's cash value at the time of the announcement so you saw the stock re-rate immediately it went up 100% the next day”
Listen at 34:59
AI can help identify companies whose stock performance lags operating improvement.
“using AI to, okay, here's a list of companies. What's happening with the stock price versus revenue growth and EBITDA?”
Listen at 41:57
Keystone Financial screens every company presenting at the event.
“we look at every company at the event”
Listen at 43:10
The conference includes five of Canada’s seven largest cannabis LPs and its largest retailer.
“you have five of the top seven LPs by market share in Canada and you have the largest retailer as well”
Listen at 45:23
Rubicon Organics’ second facility should begin generating revenue within several quarters.
“they're carrying all the operating costs in GNA of two facilities while having zero revenue. So that's coming on stream in the next couple of quarters.”
Listen at 50:04
BioSyent’s fair value is approximately $20, supporting ownership at current prices.
“Our fair value is $20. And we still like it in this range.”
Listen at 53:01
Hammond Power’s backlog is primarily tied to AI data centers.
“The biggest percentage of their backlog is for AI data centers.”
Listen at 55:37
ADF Group trades at 5.5 times the speakers’ 2028 earnings estimate.
“we can buy it for 5.5 times our 2028 earnings estimate”
Listen at 56:29
Meeting more management teams increases the chance of finding attractive investments.
“meeting many management teams, you increase your chances of finding something that's attractive.”
Listen at 57:44
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.