Sep 8, 2026 · 6 min

China’s exports stay strong despite tariff pressure

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trading carefully'

The data points to resilient Chinese exports while revealing how trade-routing strategies may be reshaping the tariff picture.

3 key takeaways

1China’s July exports continued to grow, supported partly by re-exporting imported components.
2Chinese-reported exports to the United States differ sharply from US-reported imports from China.
3Trade-routing strategies may help customers avoid tariffs while sustaining China’s export sector.

Don't miss

Paul Donovan highlights the striking discrepancy between Chinese-reported exports to the United States and US-reported imports from China.

The brief

Paul Donovan’s morning briefing focuses on China’s July trade data, where continued export growth complicates the view that tariffs are weakening the country’s external sector.

A significant share of the picture involves imported components being re-exported, linking China’s export performance to the movement of goods through wider supply chains.

The sharp gap between China’s reported exports to the United States and US-reported imports from China raises questions about how customers route trade around tariffs.

The episode’s central tension is clear: China’s exports remain strong, but the reported destination and tariff exposure of those goods may not tell the whole story.

What was said on this episode

8 statements · 1 positive · 6 negative · 1 mixed

Paul Donovanon China-US trade dataMixed1:00
China’s export data is more accurate because US importers creatively minimize tariffs.
“The balance of probability is that the data from China is correct, or more correct, and that US importers are being creative in how they import product from China so as to minimise the tariffs that the importers must pay to the US government.”
Listen at 1:00
Paul Donovanon China’s manufacturing outputPositive1:19
Tariff avoidance helps Chinese manufacturing offset weak domestic consumption.
“This ability to help customers avoid tariffs allows external demand for China's manufacturing output to compensate. for the rather mediocre performance of China's domestic consumer.”
Listen at 1:19
Paul Donovanon Germany-China trade tensionsNegative1:49
Trade tensions with China and others pose a growing risk to German growth.
“However, trade tensions with China in particular and potentially other countries are a growing risk.”
Listen at 1:49
Paul Donovanon Economic nationalism in EuropeNegative1:57
Economic nationalism is becoming more influential across Europe.
“Economic nationalism is an increasing force across Europe.”
Listen at 1:57
Paul Donovanon Far-right electoral success in Saxony-AnhaltNegative2:16
Far-right electoral success signals potential for prejudice to spread.
“the electoral success of the far right is a signal of the potential for prejudice to take hold.”
Listen at 2:16
Paul Donovanon Blaming foreignersNegative2:24
Blaming foreigners is a convenient scapegoat in prejudicial political climates.
“Blaming foreigners is always one of the most convenient scapegoats to present in a prejudicial political climate.”
Listen at 2:24
Paul Donovanon Crude oil pricesNegative3:35
Crude oil prices are approaching $100 per barrel, while refined products are more problematic.
“crude oil prices now flirting with $100 a barrel and refined product prices even more of a problem.”
Listen at 3:35
Paul Donovanon Consumer economic behaviorNegative3:54
Consumers are not changing economic behavior because of inflation expectations.
“The evidence to date is that they are not.”
Listen at 3:54

Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.