Aug 31, 2026 · 1h 34m
Corporate battles heat up over Canva liquidity and Xero executive pay
Canva’s Investor Dumpster Fire, Xero’s Shareholder Smackdown, CTM’s Lifesasver Deal and GTA's $3.5bn Bet
As market conditions tighten, tech darlings and corporate mainstays are being forced to answer to angry shareholders and expensive lenders.
- 1Canva faces growing friction between early investors seeking liquidity and management trying to protect its valuation.
- 2Xero shareholders are revolting against high executive compensation and controversial stock sales by the CEO.
- 3Corporate Travel Management managed to secure a high-interest credit deal to avoid liquidation and plan its relisting.
Don't miss
The detailed breakdown of Canva's escalating valuation battle and the threat AI poses to its core freemium model.
The brief
Tech giants and established corporate players are facing intense pressure as liquidity dries up and shareholders push back against executive compensation and high-interest rescue deals.
At Canva, early investors are clashing with management over liquidity options, raising serious questions about the company's multi-billion-dollar valuation and the long-term viability of its freemium model.
Meanwhile, Xero is dealing with a massive shareholder revolt over executive pay and CEO stock sales, while Corporate Travel Management narrowly avoided liquidation through a high-interest credit deal.
The hosts also dive into the wild economics of the gaming industry, analyzing the massive development and marketing budgets required for the upcoming launch of Grand Theft Auto 6.
What was said on this episode
59 statements · 22 positive · 29 negative · 4 mixed · 4 neutral
Hardware investments generally require long time horizons.
“If you're going to fund hardware, the time horizons are long.”
Listen at 8:50
Zoox will improve while Canva deteriorates.
“this business will continue to get better, we think, and Canva's continuing to get worse”
Listen at 10:48
Zoox was likely to succeed technologically and commercially.
“I think Zoox was going to work.”
Listen at 10:54
Amazon or another hyperscaler could value Zoox at $100–200 billion.
“one of the hyperscalers, probably Amazon because they wouldn't own one, would pay $100 billion or $200 billion for this thing now.”
Listen at 13:50
Deep-tech businesses often make sudden progress after lengthy development periods.
“It takes a very long time to seemingly get nowhere and then all of a sudden you make massive progress, and it's because of all of the work you've been doing to try to get to this point where it just starts working. And that is really common with these types of businesses.”
Listen at 15:01
Main Sequence should invest in difficult deep-tech hardware businesses.
“That to me feels like that should be the investor in stuff like this”
Listen at 15:25
Hardware is regaining importance as an investment and innovation category.
“I think that hardware is making a comeback as an investment class and as an innovation category”
Listen at 19:02
Many Chinese electric-vehicle brands will disappear.
“it feels inevitable these Chinese brands is going to just, just completely go zump”
Listen at 20:22
Only about five Chinese electric-vehicle brands will survive in Australia.
“I think 5 will survive.”
Listen at 20:29
XPeng’s robotics division is valued at $6 billion despite having no revenue.
“it's worth $6 billion. Yeah, but it has no revenue.”
Listen at 20:40
China currently leads globally in humanoid robotics.
“China is leading the world in what we could call humanoid robots.”
Listen at 21:01
Industrial robots are already working effectively in dangerous mining environments.
“it's actually working pretty well at the moment. We just don't know about it because we're not on these sites.”
Listen at 22:49
Disney’s brand provides pricing power and lowers customer acquisition costs.
“Yeah, they have pricing power, and they have lower cap because when they put out a movie, movies have a lot, and it's by Disney, people are going to be prepared to go and see it on that basis, right? They trust it.”
Listen at 29:03
Disney possesses roughly five or six of Hamilton Helmer’s strategic powers.
“This is probably a business with 6 of the 7 powers, or 5 of the 6 powers if you're gonna say.”
Listen at 34:27
GTA 6 will be the biggest game launch in history.
“biggest game launch coming up in history is GTA 6.”
Listen at 36:04
GTA 6’s development cost is expected to reach $3.5 billion.
“What do you think it costs to develop, Mike? $1 billion. So it's up to $3.5.”
Listen at 38:02
Eureka Petco’s forecast real contribution margin is below 30%, underperforming expectations.
“Their real contribution margin in their forecast is more like $22 mil on $80 mil of sales, which is below 30%. So that to me is like not a business performing as well as it should.”
Listen at 46:18
Pet ownership and related growth have likely reached a peak.
“I think we've sort of hit peak pet”
Listen at 47:49
Slowing pet-industry growth is weakening Pet Circle’s momentum.
“it's not the greatest news for Pet Circle that like you're starting to lose momentum in this industry.”
Listen at 47:56
Victoria currently has severe crime and governance problems.
“Victoria is a hellhole, and these people are shameless and disgraceful.”
Listen at 51:17
Violent crime must be stopped because it harms victims and society.
“it has to be stopped because it's unfair to the people that are the victims of these crimes, and it ruins society.”
Listen at 52:13
The Australian government should prioritize rescuing and assisting Australians abroad.
“the job of this government is to help Australians and save Australians.”
Listen at 56:19
Spending $5 million on Nepal hygiene kits instead of rescue is outrageous.
“posting a check for $5 million to buy hygiene kits, I mean, it's, it's an outrage.”
Listen at 57:26
Continuation funds resemble Ponzi schemes when new investors buy earlier fund holdings.
“they get new investor money and they will buy the shares in the old vehicle, which feels a lot like a Ponzi scheme.”
Listen at 1:01:17
Canva’s private-market valuation could require an 80% write-down.
“we think it could be like an 80% write-down if you really take it to market.”
Listen at 1:04:49
Canva may be experiencing its worst period but could recover and emerge stronger.
“it is possible this is the worst moment that they're going to face. I don't think that's the narrative, but I could easily be wrong. They might find a way to like reinvigorate growth and get through this stronger.”
Listen at 1:05:14
Three-quarters of surveyed Canva subscribers have canceled subscriptions.
“I would say 3 quarters of them have cancelled their Canva subscription.”
Listen at 1:06:07
The rise of AI has severely damaged Canva’s software business.
“AI just came from nowhere. These guys are the almost the biggest SaaSpocalypse victims out there.”
Listen at 1:09:29
Canva is among the biggest victims of AI-driven software disruption.
“These guys are the almost the biggest SaaSpocalypse victims out there.”
Listen at 1:09:30
Figma may be more resilient to AI disruption than previously believed.
“I think there are actually arguments that maybe I got it wrong on Figma and they're more resilient.”
Listen at 1:10:07
Canva’s bullish case depends on making AI costs negligible through proprietary models.
“get the AI cost to really like close to nothing, but it's their own models. That's, that's the, that's the bull view.”
Listen at 1:10:25
Claude Design has not yet materially defeated Figma.
“Claude Design has not killed Figma.”
Listen at 1:10:40
Canva customers are less loyal than Figma customers because they are primarily prosumers.
“Canva customers are less sticky than Figma customers because they're prosumer customers”
Listen at 1:10:48
Users trying Claude Design may decide not to return to Canva.
“It's possible that people give it a go and then they say, actually, we're not going to take another look at Canva.”
Listen at 1:11:09
Canva has a bullish case, but its current valuation is expensive.
“there definitely is a bull case for Canva, but this price is not cheap.”
Listen at 1:11:22
Canva would become attractive at a $10 billion valuation.
“if Canva was $10 billion, then you'd start looking at it and saying, well, there is a contrarian bull case.”
Listen at 1:11:30
Canva’s $32–40 billion valuation is excessively high.
“But it's $40 billion and maybe even $32 billion, the latest mark. That's real high.”
Listen at 1:11:41
Canva generated approximately $25 million in profit.
“This is a business that made $25 mil.”
Listen at 1:11:46
Xero’s acquisition has not yet demonstrated that it will create shareholder value.
“it's not yet proven that this is going to drive shareholder value.”
Listen at 1:16:04
Xero’s Melio acquisition was overpriced and Xero should exit that market.
“it seemed highly overpriced in a market they've never had any penetration in and should probably be leaving, not, not double down.”
Listen at 1:16:07
Xero’s board has performed disastrously.
“this has been a disastrous board.”
Listen at 1:17:36
Xero increased CEO Cassidy’s remuneration from $15 million to $18 million.
“they increasing Cassidy's remuneration from $18 million US to— from $15 to $18 million US this year.”
Listen at 1:17:41
Firing Xero’s CEO would increase the company’s share price.
“What do you think happens to the share price if you wake up one morning and they fired her?”
Listen at 1:17:58
Xero should replace its board and CEO and reset the company.
“I think the board and CEO need to go. They need to reset this whole thing.”
Listen at 1:18:38
An ASX-listed company can survive operating without a CEO for six months.
“you can get through it. It's survivable.”
Listen at 1:20:22
Corporate Travel Management may be preparing to relist on the ASX.
“it appears that the embattled travel agent CTM may be preparing for relisting on the ASX”
Listen at 1:20:45
No bank was willing to lend to Corporate Travel Management.
“No bank, I said no bank would and no bank did.”
Listen at 1:21:31
Corporate Travel Management would have failed without the PEP loan.
“it's a business that would've died otherwise.”
Listen at 1:21:58
Corporate Travel Management’s loan interest rate is likely above 12%.
“Probably 12+%, I would've thought.”
Listen at 1:22:07
CTM could relist imminently, but releasing FY26 results remains the blocker.
“It could be relisting any day, but they haven't released the FY26 yet, which is the blocker.”
Listen at 1:22:18
Most observers believed CTM would fail without the PEP financing.
“I think everybody did without this Hail Mary.”
Listen at 1:23:40
EBITDA is an inappropriate metric for evaluating CTM’s financial performance.
“EBITDA is a frankly ridiculous metric to use here.”
Listen at 1:26:07
CTM earns approximately half a cent of profit per dollar of transaction volume.
“they get half a cent for every dollar.”
Listen at 1:27:29
Flight Centre is approximately four times more profitable than CTM.
“They're 4 times better than these guys.”
Listen at 1:28:01
CTM is, at best, approximately breakeven financially.
“it's basically a breakeven business at best.”
Listen at 1:29:42
PEP’s CTM investment is a good deal if the business can be sold for enough.
“I think it's a good deal.”
Listen at 1:30:15
A CTM turnaround to a billion-dollar business could produce substantial investor returns within five years.
“if somehow CTM turns around and is a billion-dollar business Like over a 5-year period, they could—”
Listen at 1:30:39
PEP could double its CTM investment if the company becomes a billion-dollar business.
“double their money on this investment.”
Listen at 1:30:51
CTM’s underlying saleable assets partly mitigate PEP’s downside risk.
“the downside risk feels somewhat mitigated by the underlying asset that could be sold.”
Listen at 1:30:58
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
