Sep 7, 2026 · 1h 7m
Crypto investors shift from blockchains to application cash flows
The New Economics of Crypto Tokens | Austin Barack
The discussion tests whether tokens tied to real usage, revenue, and value capture can replace infrastructure narratives as crypto’s durable investment case.
- 1Relayer Capital increasingly favors liquid tokens whose applications show user growth, revenue, and explicit value capture.
- 2Venice’s VVV illustrates the upside and uncertainty of valuing AI products through future growth, burns, buybacks, and new usage.
- 3Pump and EtherFi support a broader thesis that durable crypto tokens may increasingly represent application businesses rather than new blockchains.
Don't miss
Austin Barack argues that the next enduring crypto tokens may represent application businesses with real usage and cash flows, not merely new blockchains.
The brief
Austin Barack of Relayer Capital explains why his strategy has shifted from venture-backed infrastructure toward liquid tokens attached to applications with users, revenue, and value capture.
Venice and its VVV token become the central test case: Austin models growth, revenue, burns, buybacks, and product expansion, while acknowledging that his assumptions are notably optimistic.
The debate over Venice’s Mines product sharpens the case, with its engaged users and familiarity with multiple AI models potentially creating more valuable usage than simple credit purchases.
Pump raises a different question: whether trading-driven revenue can prove durable enough to justify a low buyback multiple, despite investors’ long skepticism toward crypto-platform cash flows.
EtherFi extends the framework from liquid staking and restaking infrastructure toward a broader neobank and brokerage model built on Ethereum, pointing toward crypto’s application-led next era.
What was said on this episode
38 statements · 34 positive · 1 negative · 1 mixed · 2 neutral
Crypto-AI and 24/7 trading/tokenization are the most attractive market segments.
“the two segments of the market that I found most interesting are the intersection of crypto and AI. and 24-7 trading slash tokenization.”
Listen at 2:21
The best venture deals are rarely priced cheaply.
“it's very rare that the best deals are also priced cheaply”
Listen at 3:22
Relayer Capital is allocating about 95% of its attention to liquid assets.
“At this point, it's like 95% liquid where I'm spending my time.”
Listen at 5:08
A small group of tokens has product-market fit, rapid growth, and attractive pricing.
“there's actually 10 maybe or five that are really, really compelling that are finding product market fit, that are growing quickly, you know, as an extension of that, and then are also priced really attractively.”
Listen at 6:09
Athena and Pendle should benefit most when markets heat up and on-chain yields rise.
“Athena and Pendle as third inning assets where it's like once things heat up and on-chain yields increase, those are two of the protocols like these native on-chain yield protocols that benefit most.”
Listen at 6:41
Venice is projected to reach $336 million revenue and $70 million token burns in 2027.
“I have that in 2027, scaling up to 336 million in projected revenue and 70 million in burns.”
Listen at 12:57
A 50x multiple on projected burns implies a $3.5 billion VVV valuation.
“$70 million times a 50X multiple, $3.5 billion for the token”
Listen at 13:32
Austin’s model produces a $43.89 VVV price target.
“And that's how you get to $43.89”
Listen at 13:42
Mines is an extension of Venice’s existing product suite.
“I continue to look at it as an extension of what's being built.”
Listen at 19:59
Mines is more likely to succeed than the market currently expects.
“this is more likely to be successful than I guess perhaps the market does right now”
Listen at 22:22
Venice has four million historical users and likely over one million active users.
“they have 4 million historical users. I mean, they haven't released what monthly active or quarterly active numbers are, but by my estimates, that's at least over a million.”
Listen at 22:30
Mines-like products could be especially useful for AI image and video creation.
“those sorts of products, perhaps most specifically, are where a minds type product could be the most useful”
Listen at 24:21
Venice balances business reinvestment with token value accrual effectively.
“Venice is straddling that line very well.”
Listen at 29:49
Venice’s credit-purchase burn rate is projected to reach 10% in 2027.
“In 2027, I have that becoming 10% because I think they'll be able to actually increase that.”
Listen at 32:04
Austin rates his Venice valuation model six out of ten for optimism.
“I would call it a six.”
Listen at 32:45
Venice’s growth has exceeded Austin’s expectations.
“Definitely exceeded my expectations.”
Listen at 33:09
AI usage is moving toward multi-model routing.
“we're moving to like a multi-model routing world”
Listen at 36:01
OpenRouter’s valuation supports Austin’s Venice valuation analysis.
“that just gives me more conviction in the valuation analysis that I've done.”
Listen at 37:26
Crypto’s negative capital-flow trend is likely reversing.
“I think that flips over time. I think it's probably just flipped.”
Listen at 40:37
Pump’s revenue could double or triple from current levels.
“I think we could see like a doubling or tripling even from here.”
Listen at 41:51
Crypto-market activity can strongly reinforce Pump and Hyperliquid fundamentals.
“I think the psycho reflexivity is very, very strong for something like a pumper or a hype in the fundamentals as well.”
Listen at 42:59
AI adoption is continuing to increase.
“more people are using AI every day and that's not changing.”
Listen at 43:47
Pump remains significantly undervalued.
“pump, I think it's still incredibly cheap.”
Listen at 44:17
Pump trades at five times buybacks.
“It's trading at 5x buybacks”
Listen at 44:20
Pump has substantial further upside from multiple expansion and growth.
“I think it has a lot more room to grow based on these multiple re-rating and value plays out.”
Listen at 45:35
Hyperliquid exemplifies crypto’s thesis of on-chain financial markets.
“I think it's one of the best examples of the crypto thesis playing out”
Listen at 45:55
EtherFi could benefit substantially by achieving even a fraction of Nubank’s success.
“if they can achieve a fraction of Nubank's success, that would be awesome”
Listen at 48:21
Over 65% of EtherFi’s business comes from its neobank product.
“today, 65 plus percent of Etherify's business comes from their neobank product.”
Listen at 50:46
EtherFi’s neobank business is expected to accelerate further.
“I think that portion of the business even accelerates further”
Listen at 51:11
EtherFi’s daily credit-card volume has grown tenfold year over year.
“that's 10x year over year.”
Listen at 52:07
A buyback-based EtherFi model implies a token price above $1, roughly double current levels.
“you get to a token price that's over a dollar. And that's directionally 2X from where we are today.”
Listen at 53:33
Neobanks such as Nubank derive 60–70% of revenue from interest income on loans.
“they make 60 to 70% of their revenue from that.”
Listen at 55:30
Pump’s revenue has remained durable and grown over the past two-plus years.
“what we've seen over the last two plus years is actually this revenue is pretty durable. It's not going anywhere. It's actually growing.”
Listen at 59:21
Pump is unlikely to abandon its token.
“I don't think they're going to abandon the token”
Listen at 1:02:13
Crypto applications will generate over 90% of crypto revenue.
“We're going to see 90 plus percent of revenue generated by the applications.”
Listen at 1:03:48
The most enduring crypto tokens will represent applications and money.
“I think we're going to find the most enduring tokens be applications and money.”
Listen at 1:03:52
Solana is among the most compelling bets on crypto adoption.
“I think it's one of the most compelling bets for crypto adoption.”
Listen at 1:05:37
Venice, Hyperliquid, Pump, EtherFi, Bitcoin, and Zcash may prove attractive 2026 entry points.
“the Venices, Hyperliquids, Pumps, Eats or Fives, Bitcoin, Zcash, you know, et cetera of the world are going to be the things that people look at and say like, wow, 2026 had some good entry points.”
Listen at 1:06:04
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