Sep 25, 2026 · 1h 1m
Crypto’s early bull market faces a leadership test
ROLLUP: The Bull Market is On? | Zcash & NEAR | Kalshi Wash Trading | BlackRock Goes Onchain
The episode weighs whether improving breadth signals a durable crypto cycle or merely a rotation among assets with competing monetary and revenue narratives.
- 1Market breadth is improving, but Bitcoin’s uncertain marginal buyers leave leadership of the next cycle unresolved.
- 2Zcash offers a privacy-focused store-of-value bid while Near represents the competing case for revenue, burns, and token utility.
- 3Kalshi’s disputed volume and institutional expansion expose the tension between crypto-market growth, transparency, and credible infrastructure.
Don't miss
The hosts dissect Kalshi’s alleged wash trading through unusual volume, open-interest patterns, rebates, and repeated $5,500 trades.
The brief
David Hoffman and Ryan assess whether crypto has entered an early bull market, pointing to improving breadth while questioning Bitcoin’s leadership and sensitivity to rising Treasury yields.
The hosts contrast Bitcoin’s lack of cash flow with stronger performance from revenue-generating tokens, then frame Zcash and Near as rival answers to the store-of-value question.
Zcash’s surge becomes a test of monetary-asset rotation, while Near’s confidential-intent revenues and token burns revive the case for tokens backed by real activity.
A discussion of Howard Marks’s view on higher Treasury yields broadens the debate to inflation, fiscal discipline, economic growth, and ownership of scarce or productive assets.
The Kalshi controversy centers on alleged wash trading, repeated $5,500 trades, rebates, and unusual volume patterns, raising questions about prediction-market credibility.
The episode closes on Truro, Variational’s airdrop, Ondo’s tokenized portfolios, and expanding roles for BlackRock, Binance, Circle, and Coinbase in crypto’s financial infrastructure.
What was said on this episode
32 statements · 25 positive · 5 negative · 2 neutral
David thinks the crypto bull market has begun.
“I also think it's on.”
Listen at 2:02
Ryan thinks crypto is in the early bull phase.
“I do agree that it looks like we are in the early bull phase.”
Listen at 9:51
Coin-holder rotation and seller exhaustion drove Bitcoin’s rise.
“The thing that won out here, I think was coin holder rotation and seller exhaustion.”
Listen at 11:27
Bitcoin rises when market participants collectively become bullish and allocate capital.
“when it's time to go up, it's time to go up.”
Listen at 12:31
Athena, Uniswap, Ondo, Jupiter, and Arbitrum generate revenue.
“They make money. They all print revenue.”
Listen at 15:02
Arbitrum receives 10% of Robinhood Chain fees, supporting its token performance.
“Arbitrum. The only significant Layer 2 token to receive the pump is getting revenue, 10% of Robinhood chain fees”
Listen at 15:16
Tokens with cash flow, buybacks, and real revenue are outperforming disproportionately.
“the cash flow generating tokens, the tokens with buybacks and real revenue story are outperforming disproportionately.”
Listen at 16:32
Bitcoin and Ether rose dramatically after crypto-native assets gained attention.
“Bitcoin went from $6,000 to... $60,000. Ether went from $300 to $4,000 plus.”
Listen at 19:03
Institutional Bitcoin believers will increase conviction as Bitcoin recovers and exceeds prior highs.
“they are going to believe even more this cycle as Bitcoin recovers, as all-time highs are breached.”
Listen at 20:36
Zcash is a crypto store-of-value asset.
“Zcash quite clearly is in the store of value asset category.”
Listen at 22:55
Zcash’s market capitalization exceeded $26 billion.
“we exceeded $26 billion last week.”
Listen at 23:16
Zcash added $26 billion in market capitalization in under one year.
“This whole Zcash thing is less than a year old. It's put on $26 billion in less than a year.”
Listen at 24:04
Zcash may be a genuine store-of-value competitor to Bitcoin.
“this is a true competitor maybe to Bitcoin.”
Listen at 24:55
Ryan raises the possibility that Zcash could reach hundreds of billions in value.
“Hundreds of billions of dollars for Zcash?”
Listen at 25:41
Zcash competes with Bitcoin for marginal asset-buying flows in 2026.
“it is a competitor for the marginal flow of dollars in 2026 buying assets.”
Listen at 25:56
Bitcoin, Ether, and Zcash are competing store-of-value crypto assets.
“I think it's Bitcoin. I think it's ETH. And I think now when you get over $25 billion, Zcash is in the race too.”
Listen at 26:31
NEAR rose 54% over seven days and led weekly crypto performance.
“The Near is the biggest mover of the week this week. It's up 54% in seven days.”
Listen at 27:53
NEAR’s recent rise reflects it winning smart-contract investment flows.
“I think one of the reason why NIR is up so much in the last seven days is because it's winning the smart contract bid.”
Listen at 28:16
NEAR intents generate cash flow.
“intents are generating cash flow on Near as well.”
Listen at 29:05
NEAR’s revenue mechanism buys and burns approximately 60% of issuance.
“they're averaging, I think like 60% of near issuance is getting bought and burnt.”
Listen at 29:55
U.S. PCE inflation is approximately 3.7%, above the Fed’s target.
“we have inflation, PCE at about 3.7%.”
Listen at 34:50
The United States has no fiscal discipline.
“There is zero fiscal discipline in the U.S.”
Listen at 35:31
Global sovereign debt is rapidly increasing.
“Sovereign debt is exploding.”
Listen at 35:41
High Treasury yields may reflect a strong, rapidly growing economy.
“what if the bond market is printing in 5%, 6%, 7% because the economy is fucking cooking.”
Listen at 40:25
Truro’s total value locked is approximately $1–2 million.
“The total value locked of Truro is $1 to $2 million.”
Listen at 49:54
Truro’s seven-day trading value is approximately $3,000.
“seven-day trading value about $3,000.”
Listen at 50:14
Variational plans to airdrop 32% of its token supply.
“They are airdropping 32% of the supply.”
Listen at 55:39
Variational plans to direct all revenue to treasury purchases and burns of VAR.
“100% of revenues directed to the treasury to buy and burn the VAR token.”
Listen at 55:44
BlackRock develops the strategies underlying Ondo Intelligent Portfolios.
“the strategy is built and developed by BlackRock.”
Listen at 56:40
Binance acquired a $100 million stake in Circle.
“Binance takes a $100 million stake in Circle”
Listen at 58:30
Coinbase now offers IPO allocations to U.S. retail investors.
“Coinbase has opened up IPO allocations to U.S. retail investors.”
Listen at 59:22
David assesses Coinbase’s web application as persistently broken.
“Their web app is so broken. It's been broken for a while.”
Listen at 1:00:10
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.