Democratic momentum collides with Trump’s economic liabilities

9/30/26: Dems Surge Ahead Of Midterms, MAGA Abandons Trump, Jack Smith Chaotic Testimony

The episode connects midterm polling, rising household costs, conservative voter frustration, and a contentious Senate hearing into a broader test of Republican durability.

3 key takeaways

1Democrats hold a striking generic-ballot advantage as competitive Senate races expose Republican vulnerability.
2Inflation, energy costs, tariffs, and mortgage rates are turning economic frustration into a political liability for Trump and Republicans.
3Jack Smith’s Senate testimony undercut an attempted perjury trap while raising broader questions about investigative conduct and privileged communications.

Don't miss

Jack Smith defuses Senator Eric Schmitt’s attempted contradiction by explaining that he may have confused the Atlanta basketball game with another game.

The brief

Ryan and Emily open on Democratic momentum before the midterms, weighing a strong generic-ballot poll, Nebraska’s Senate race, and whether Donald Trump’s support for data centers could hurt Republicans.

The political argument runs through everyday economics: higher energy and household costs, tariffs, diesel prices, weak consumer confidence, and mortgage-rate pressure are deepening voter frustration.

Conservative callers from Pennsylvania and Connecticut explain why they have turned against Donald Trump, prompting the hosts to consider whether some former supporters may accept Democratic victories to punish him.

The episode’s sharpest exchange comes when Senator Eric Schmitt tries to trap Jack Smith over an Atlanta basketball game; Smith’s explanation leaves the perjury theory looking badly misjudged.

The hosts then broaden the Smith hearing into questions about subpoenas, filter teams, attorney-client privilege, speech-and-debate protections, and the collection of donor and media information.

The closing critique targets influencers who posted victory messages before Schmitt’s exchange was complete, turning a premature political dunk into a cautionary tale about scripted outrage.

What was said on this episode

7 statements · 3 positive · 4 negative

Emily Jashinskyon RealClearPolitics generic congressional ballot averagePositive14:07
RealClearPolitics shows Democrats with an 8.4-point generic-ballot lead, a modern high.
“RCP has Dems at an 8.4 lead. So that's the highest for Democrats in modern history.”
Listen at 14:07
Emily Jashinskyon 2026 US House electionsPositive14:54
Current House projections could give Democrats a 15-seat margin.
“what they're probably looking at is a 15-vote margin overall”
Listen at 14:54
Emily Jashinskyon U.S. mortgage ratesNegative22:14
Mortgage rates will reach 8% the following week.
“8% mortgages will arrive next week.”
Listen at 22:14
Emily Jashinskyon Jack Smith investigationNegative39:55
Jack Smith issued direct subpoenas for media communications.
“he issued direct subpoenas for media communications”
Listen at 39:55
Emily Jashinskyon Congressional elector certificationPositive40:28
Members of Congress should be protected when mistaken about elector certification.
“members of Congress, for example, should be protected to be wrong about whether they're certifying electors”
Listen at 40:28
Emily Jashinskyon Jack Smith investigation documentsNegative41:17
National Archives documents were forwarded to Smith’s broader team without filtering.
“they just dumped the documents. And then it's forwarded straight from Smith's assistant to the broader team with no filter”
Listen at 41:17
Emily Jashinskyon Jack Smith investigation donor recordsNegative42:28
The investigation collected thousands of small-dollar donor checks containing personal details.
“none of which ended up being mentioned in the case, all of which had personal details of people who gave Trump like $100”
Listen at 42:28

Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.