Sep 14, 2026 · 53 min
Eisman’s partners test fiscal fears against the AI boom
The Big Short Partners Reunite: Rates, AI, Gold and Two Stock Picks | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 75
The discussion connects government financing pressures, concentrated AI spending, difficult shorting conditions, and two bullish stock cases into one market-risk framework.
- 1Persistent deficits may eventually force policymakers toward money creation, despite political resistance to spending cuts or higher taxes.
- 2AI investment faces concentration, financing, and return-on-capital risks if falling costs undermine the boom’s economic foundation.
- 3Short sellers now need catalysts as much as correct analysis, while Golar and Glass House offer contrasting bullish cases.
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The brief
Steve Eisman reunites with Porter Collins and Danny Moses to examine Treasury policy, fiscal deficits, interest expense, and the political limits of keeping rates low.
Porter makes the case for gold as a debt-free asset while the group weighs whether unsustainable government finances and declining dollar confidence will force a policy reckoning.
The AI boom comes under pressure as NVIDIA’s concentration, rising costs, debt issuance, and uncertain enterprise returns raise the prospect of a capital-spending bust.
The investors explain why modern hedge-fund shorting demands a catalyst, then test that discipline against Circle, FICO, and Carvana’s financing model.
The episode closes with bullish cases for Golar’s Argentine LNG opportunity and Glass House’s potential margin expansion if cannabis barriers ease.
What was said on this episode
33 statements · 14 positive · 14 negative · 2 mixed · 3 neutral
Interest expense and entitlements exceed tax receipts by 10%.
“interest expense plus entitlements is 110% of tax receipts.”
Listen at 1:34
The dollar’s long-term decline will continue and probably accelerate.
“I think that trend continues and probably accelerates at this point because they're out of arrows.”
Listen at 3:55
Gold will be substantially higher in five years.
“I think if I look back in five years, I think it's going to be a lot higher.”
Listen at 4:09
Ending the war could sharply lower oil, inflation expectations, and interest rates.
“if you can end the war, maybe we could get oil down from, say, 86 to 60. Inflation expectations will come crashing down. Rates will come crashing down.”
Listen at 5:16
Bessent will keep trying to lower rates over six to nine months.
“he is going to keep trying to get rates down because that's what he needs to do over the next six months to nine months. He has to.”
Listen at 6:09
The United States is moving toward severe fiscal danger but is not close yet.
“I don't think we're close. But we're moving in that direction.”
Listen at 7:45
Quantitative easing did not help the economy but did raise stock prices.
“It never helped the economy, but it did help the stock market go up.”
Listen at 10:13
The federal government will not restrain spending until conditions become severe.
“they're not going to do it unless things get really bad.”
Listen at 12:00
NVIDIA’s five largest direct customers represented 70% of accounts receivable.
“the top five direct customers of NVIDIA accounted for 70%. of accounts receivable in the quarter, at the end of the quarter.”
Listen at 13:46
Using Chinese open-weight models for routine queries substantially lowers AI costs.
“everything else, let's say they give to the Chinese open-weight models. So therefore, the costs have come down a lot.”
Listen at 15:22
The AI investment boom may follow a boom-bust cycle before healthier cycles emerge.
“are we dealing with a very similar, and Porter's probably going to speak about this, CapEx boom that history would suggest you have boom, bust, and then what we get are good cycles.”
Listen at 15:56
AI companies, including Anthropic, will enter public markets to obtain funding.
“They're going to let AI come public. They're going to let Anthropic come public because they need to.”
Listen at 17:26
Flooding markets with new capital can create problems.
“if you flood a market with capital, right, it's problematic.”
Listen at 18:18
Full self-driving technology is roughly a decade behind and currently at Level 3.
“full self-driving is about a decade behind. And it's at level three.”
Listen at 19:13
OpenAI has been losing market share continuously.
“They had huge market share and they lose it every day.”
Listen at 22:55
OpenAI is currently in financial or competitive trouble.
“So I think open AI is in trouble.”
Listen at 23:39
Buying OpenAI in bankruptcy would likely be an excellent deal.
“whoever buys open AI at a bankruptcy, it's going to be a fantastic deal.”
Listen at 24:22
Multi-manager hedge funds require software longs and shorts to remain balanced.
“they want you to be long some software and short the bad software. And so you're more perfectly balanced within your portfolio.”
Listen at 29:27
Multi-manager funds are satisfied with a 3–5% long-short spread.
“If they made a spread between the two of three to 5%, they're happy.”
Listen at 30:11
Leveraged hedge funds cover short positions that fail within roughly three weeks.
“if it doesn't work for them in three weeks, they're covering.”
Listen at 30:45
Investors should avoid shorting cult stocks.
“I think the lesson is don't short a cult, unfortunately.”
Listen at 33:04
Porter Collins is currently short FICO.
“We are short FICO.”
Listen at 34:02
FICO raised prices by approximately 1,600%.
“They raised prices 1,600%.”
Listen at 34:39
Carvana trades at roughly 30–40 times earnings and is expensive.
“It's expensive. It's like 30 or 40 times earnings.”
Listen at 39:54
A substantial portion of Carvana’s profits may be artificially enhanced.
“a lot of their profits are probably artificial or enhanced, steroid enhanced.”
Listen at 40:07
Porter Collins owns a substantial position in Golar.
“we own a lot of a company called Golar.”
Listen at 41:28
Two Golar ships will begin exporting Argentine gas next year.
“the big thing for them is they're going to move these Golar ships in, two of them, and pull the gas out starting next year.”
Listen at 43:05
Argentine gas exports will greatly expand the budget surplus and lower interest rates.
“we think because of that. Budget surplus go wild and interest rates, which have gone down from 100 plus percent to 30, come down a lot more.”
Listen at 43:15
Glass House is a low-cost cannabis producer.
“they are the low-cost provider”
Listen at 44:49
Selling Glass House cannabis outside California could produce very large margins.
“the margins of selling it elsewhere are ginormous.”
Listen at 46:00
Glass House could achieve 50–65% EBITDA margins if expansion succeeds.
“50 to 65% EBITDA margins, if they can do that, on higher revenues.”
Listen at 46:21
Glass House may begin showing regulatory expansion progress in 2027.
“a 2027 event that we start seeing progress”
Listen at 46:41
Gold will continue performing well under ongoing money printing.
“I think that gold continues to do well.”
Listen at 48:49
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.