Oct 9, 2026 · 28 min
FBI counterintelligence cuts raise espionage risks
It's a great time to spy on America
The reported staffing reductions could leave the United States less prepared to detect foreign espionage while national security competes with domestic enforcement priorities.
- 1FBI counterintelligence staffing reportedly fell 40–50% in many field offices as resources shifted toward violent crime and immigration enforcement.
- 2The panel connects fewer investigators to harder-to-detect risks involving China, Russia, Iran, American technology, and dissidents targeted abroad.
- 3Listener questions examine digital campaign advertising, congressional election challenges, and why polling snapshots cannot reliably predict results.
Don't miss
Ryan Lucas details how reported FBI counterintelligence staffing reductions could make foreign espionage harder to detect before damage emerges.
The brief
Ryan Lucas explains that counterintelligence squads in many FBI field offices have reportedly lost 40–50% of their staffing, as priorities shift toward violent crime and immigration enforcement.
The panel weighs the national-security consequences: espionage by China, Russia, and Iran can target technology, intellectual property, and dissidents, while failures may remain invisible for years.
Domenico Montanaro and Miles Parks answer listener questions about digital political advertising, challenges to congressional elections, and why margins of error make polls snapshots rather than predictions.
The episode’s sharpest tension is between visible domestic enforcement demands and the quieter work of preventing foreign intelligence operations before their damage becomes apparent.
The closing “Can’t Let It Go” segment turns to a former CIA official accused of acquiring millions of dollars in gold bars, alongside lighter complaints about baseball and grocery stores.
What was said on this episode
37 statements · 11 positive · 18 negative · 2 mixed · 6 neutral
Fewer FBI personnel are trying to detect spies in America.
“It is a good time to be a spy in America. There are a lot fewer people trying to break your cover.”
Listen at 0:00
The FBI has lost more than 1,500 special agents under the administration.
“the FBI has lost more than 1,500 special agents under this administration”
Listen at 3:43
Agent departures have especially harmed FBI counterintelligence.
“These departures hit particularly hard in counterintelligence”
Listen at 3:54
FBI counterintelligence cases and sources take years to develop.
“These cases take years to build. Sources take years to build.”
Listen at 4:03
New agents cannot immediately perform counterintelligence like 20-year veterans.
“this isn't something that you can just... drop a new agent into, and suddenly they're going to be doing the exact same thing that a 20-year veteran would be”
Listen at 4:08
FBI counterintelligence cuts harm U.S. national security.
“These cuts are not good for national security for the United States.”
Listen at 4:35
China is continually stealing U.S. trade secrets.
“China is stealing U.S. trade secrets in particular all the time.”
Listen at 4:50
Russia remains a formidable counterintelligence adversary.
“Russia, of course, is also a very formidable adversary in this field.”
Listen at 5:19
Russia still has highly capable intelligence services.
“They still have very capable intelligence services.”
Listen at 5:24
FBI counterintelligence cuts will have little short-term political impact.
“I don't think there'll be much political impact in the short term.”
Listen at 6:22
Shifting assets away from counterintelligence makes America less safe.
“he's making America less safe because he's pulling these assets out of counterintelligence”
Listen at 7:09
The United States is currently the world’s preeminent power.
“the United States is the preeminent power in the world right now”
Listen at 8:49
Russia has traditionally avoided assassinating dissidents in the United States.
“traditionally it's something that they've shied away from”
Listen at 9:31
Television advertising remains effective in elections.
“TV ads still matter.”
Listen at 10:56
Campaigns use data to identify voters, locations, and likely voting behavior.
“the campaigns have done a lot of work to figure out exactly who you are, exactly where you'll go, and how you'll probably vote.”
Listen at 11:27
Election spending is breaking records across the board.
“The amount of money that's being spent in this election, which is breaking all records everywhere”
Listen at 12:00
Broadcast television advertising is limited by available airtime.
“on broadcast TV, you've only got 24 hours in a day”
Listen at 12:14
Donald Trump has approximately 99% name recognition.
“Trump has like a 99 percent name ID.”
Listen at 12:26
Most current election advertisements are negative attack ads.
“The vast majority of ads in this cycle right now are negative ads, attack ads”
Listen at 12:45
Negative campaigning is the best way to mobilize voters.
“the best way to get someone to the polls is to make them scared or angry”
Listen at 12:55
Political influencer advertising remains largely unregulated and its effects are unclear.
“it's pretty unregulated at this point on how prevalent that is and how that's impacting all of this”
Listen at 13:41
A new Congress will be seated in January.
“I would be willing to bet my salary on the idea of a new Congress being seated in January.”
Listen at 16:26
Polling response rates have declined since the 1980s and 1990s.
“response rates have been falling since the 1980s and 1990s”
Listen at 17:11
Current polling response rates are below 5%.
“Now it's less than 5 percent, even lower than that, actually.”
Listen at 17:22
People should favor polls using multiple data-collection modalities.
“look for ones that are doing multiple modalities”
Listen at 18:01
People should trust high-quality polls and examine trends over time.
“trust those good quality polls and look at the trends over time”
Listen at 18:29
Polls describe current conditions rather than predict outcomes.
“they're a snapshot. They're not a prediction.”
Listen at 18:36
Polling electorate models can be substantially inaccurate.
“Sometimes those models are way off.”
Listen at 19:20
Even the best pollsters cannot consistently model likely voters accurately.
“Even the best pollsters aren't able to really nail that all the time.”
Listen at 19:37
Horse-race polling is not the most useful polling information.
“Horse race polling is not really the thing that I even look at the most.”
Listen at 19:48
Horse-race polls are not necessarily wrong because they include margins of error.
“it's not wrong, but there's a margin of error”
Listen at 19:55
Poll results represent a range rather than precise values.
“It's a fuzzy range. It's not meant to be with such specificity.”
Listen at 20:16
A former senior CIA official pleaded guilty to abusing his position.
“A former senior CIA official pleaded guilty Tuesday to a charge that he had abused his position”
Listen at 21:33
The seized gold bars were worth more than $40 million.
“hundreds of gold bars worth over $40 million”
Listen at 21:44
Investigators seized about 300 gold bars, $2 million, and 35 luxury watches.
“They seized about 300 of these gold bars. in addition to $2 million in cash, about 35 luxury watches.”
Listen at 21:50
A grocery-store database accurately located products within the store.
“there was a database that I could search. It came up right away. It was exactly right. It was geolocated to my store.”
Listen at 26:00
Product-location tools would make grocery shopping more efficient.
“this would make everything more efficient”
Listen at 27:19
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.