Oct 14, 2026 · 28 min
Firmus collapse exposes a split beneath Wall Street’s record highs
Firmus IPO falls apart & the invisible crash behind Wall Street's record highs
The episode connects a failed Australian listing with a narrow, AI-led US rally and a disciplined framework for finding quality stocks under pressure.
- 1Firmus’s abandoned IPO raises questions about valuation, investor demand, advisers, and whether US markets offer a better listing path.
- 2Record S&P 500 and Nasdaq highs mask broad weakness as a small group of AI-related companies drives index returns.
- 3Charlie Munger’s 200-week moving-average idea works best as a quality-stock watchlist tool, not an automatic buy signal.
Don't miss
The hosts reveal that roughly 36% of S&P 500 companies are below their 200-week moving average despite the index’s strong headline performance.
The brief
Firmus abandoned what was expected to be one of Australia’s largest IPOs, prompting questions about its ambitious valuation, weak demand, and conflicting oversubscription claims.
The hosts consider whether a Nasdaq listing could offer Firmus deeper capital markets, while examining the consequences for the ASX, Mass Group, and other pre-IPO investors.
US indexes are near records, but many individual S&P 500 companies sit far below their peaks; AI-related leaders are carrying a surprisingly narrow rally.
The episode argues that index investing can remain resilient because leadership changes over time, with weaker companies replaced as stronger ones emerge.
Charlie Munger’s 200-week moving-average rule becomes a watchlist framework: first find genuinely strong businesses, then consider them when long-term prices weaken.
What was said on this episode
32 statements · 11 positive · 17 negative · 2 mixed · 2 neutral
Robotics will substantially change the world over the next 15 years.
“the world that we are going to experience over the next... Well, three to five years for humanoids, the next sort of 15 plus for, you know, the takeover of robotics is crazy. Like the world we live in is just going to be so different.”
Listen at 1:23
The world will have billions of robots.
“we're going to have billions of robots”
Listen at 1:58
Firmus IPO demand was weaker than expected.
“demand wasn't quite what they thought it was”
Listen at 3:32
Firmus may become a successful company that the ASX failed to retain.
“If Firmus does live up to its expectations, big if, it'll be another one that the ASX let slip.”
Listen at 5:21
Mass Group shares fell by more than one-third.
“Mass Group shares are down like over a third.”
Listen at 6:41
The S&P 500 recorded seven consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth.
“The S&P 500 has posted seven consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth.”
Listen at 8:34
Current data-center profit growth is unsustainable.
“everyone recognizes that this level of profit growth isn't sustainable”
Listen at 9:08
Memory-chip profits will not remain at current elevated levels.
“profits won't remain this high”
Listen at 10:41
Australia's market was 6% below its August all-time high and flat for the year.
“Down 6% from its all-time high in August. It is trading flat for the year.”
Listen at 11:21
The S&P 500 rose 14% year to date.
“The S&P 500 is up 14% year to date.”
Listen at 12:02
The Nasdaq rose 22% year to date.
“The NASDAQ is up 22% year to date.”
Listen at 12:13
Eighty-five percent of S&P 500 stocks are at least 10% below their highs.
“85% of the S&P 500 stocks are down 10% or more from their all-time highs.”
Listen at 12:44
Twenty-six percent of S&P 500 stocks are at least 40% below their highs.
“26% of stocks, so 134 companies in the S&P 500. are down 40% or more from their all-time highs.”
Listen at 12:51
Seventeen percent of S&P 500 stocks are at least 50% below their highs.
“17%, so roughly 88 stocks, are down 50% or more from their all-time highs.”
Listen at 13:00
132 S&P 500 stocks fell at least 10% during 2026.
“132 of the 500 stocks are down 10% or more in just this year.”
Listen at 13:19
Thirty-three S&P 500 stocks fell at least 30%, and eight fell at least 50%.
“33 are down 30% or more and eight are down 50% or more.”
Listen at 13:25
Lululemon fell 55%.
“Lululemon, down 55%.”
Listen at 14:09
AI-related stocks are keeping the index elevated while many others decline.
“the AI trade is keeping the index high whilst below that everything else is falling.”
Listen at 14:31
Most investors should use index investing as their primary approach.
“the index is so powerful and really should be the only way. most people think about investing.”
Listen at 15:12
Index investing captures future market leaders regardless of which companies lead.
“no matter what happens, we're going to capture that.”
Listen at 16:39
Investors should make index funds their core portfolio holding.
“buy the index buy the index start with your core because the index is so powerful”
Listen at 19:16
Investors should seek opportunities among temporarily cheaper stocks.
“when stocks are on sale find those opportunities”
Listen at 19:25
Nike will recover.
“nike is going to turn”
Listen at 20:11
Thirty-six percent of S&P 500 stocks are below their 200-week average.
“180 of the s p 500 is below their 200-week moving average as we speak today. So that's 36% of stocks”
Listen at 20:32
Netflix trades about 9% below its 200-week moving average.
“Netflix. About 9% below its 200-week moving average.”
Listen at 21:21
Netflix is almost 50% below its all-time high.
“it's down almost 50% from its all-time highs.”
Listen at 21:32
McDonald’s is approximately 32% below its all-time high.
“mcdonald's is another one it's down like 32 percent from its all-time highs”
Listen at 22:01
Meta traded 60% below its 200-week moving average in 2022–2023.
“it was actually 60% its 200-week moving average.”
Listen at 24:23
Six of the Magnificent Seven fell below their 200-week averages since 2016.
“Of the Magnificent Seven stocks, all but one have fallen below its 200 week moving average in that time.”
Listen at 24:49
Apple never fell below its 200-week average during the prior decade.
“apple has never in the past 10 years or you know 10 and a half years never dropped below its 200 week moving average”
Listen at 25:36
Investors should not blindly follow moving-average rules.
“you don't blindly follow these rules”
Listen at 25:46
Investors should build watchlists and opportunistically research declining companies.
“build your watch list and be opportunistic because under the surface, under this AI trade, there's a lot of companies that are down.”
Listen at 27:01
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.