Oct 7, 2026 · 49 min
Halftime Report weighs 15 years of gains against market concentration
Halftime Report Celebrates 15 Years 10/7/26
The anniversary discussion tests whether long-term investing still works when technology dominates leadership, valuations look stretched, and opportunities are harder to find.
- 1Technology and ETFs reshaped markets, while long-term ownership remained valuable through wars, rate shocks, and volatility.
- 2Narrow leadership and higher rates are pressuring equal-weight and cyclical stocks, increasing the premium on quality and selectivity.
- 3The panel pairs anniversary nostalgia with current calls across software, media, crypto, luxury brands, financials, and semiconductors.
Don't miss
The panel revisits Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn’s explosive 2013 live confrontation over Herbalife and why it became iconic television.
The brief
Scott Wapner opens the 15th anniversary special by comparing today’s record-high market with the one Halftime Report inherited, as technology and trillion-dollar companies transformed investing.
The panel argues that long-term ownership still matters, but narrow leadership, elevated valuations, and higher rates have made diversification beyond big tech more demanding.
Guests point to quality management, durable competitive advantages, dividends, stock selection, and broad indexes as ways to find resilience outside the dominant technology trade.
The standout retrospective revisits Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn’s 2013 Herbalife confrontation, a live clash that exposed investment debates usually kept behind closed doors.
The anniversary closes with current calls and trades spanning Spotify, Coinbase, SpaceX, Ferrari, Disney, Meta, ServiceTitan, Airbnb, Morgan Stanley, and SK Hynix.
What was said on this episode
39 statements · 31 positive · 4 negative · 3 mixed · 1 neutral
The current market lacks fear despite wars and elevated yields.
“this market has no fear in it whatsoever”
Listen at 1:53
S&P 500 companies are reporting successive record quarters.
“S&P 500 companies. printing record quarter after record quarter”
Listen at 2:18
Market turbulence does not invalidate the long-term case for staying invested.
“It just shows you through periods of turbulence, pick whichever one you think was going to be that moment. It doesn't wreck the long term story of being invested.”
Listen at 3:45
The S&P 500 returned 7.7% annually over the past 50 years.
“The long-term total return for the S&P 500 over the last 50 years is 7.7%.”
Listen at 3:58
The economy is growing around 4% to 5% this year.
“we're growing somewhere like 4% or 5%.”
Listen at 4:48
Corporate profits are expected to continue rising.
“I think they're going to continue”
Listen at 4:57
A 6% ten-year yield could become economically concerning.
“if we got to something like 6 percent, we'd have to talk about it.”
Listen at 5:10
The past 15 years rewarded buying expensive assets and selling them higher.
“the last 15 years, the definition of it has actually been buy high, sell higher.”
Listen at 6:37
Large technology stocks can provide defensive portfolio exposure.
“it gives you the defensive exposure that you need.”
Listen at 8:05
Some technology stocks, including AMD, trade at unreasonable valuations.
“the multiple in tech stocks, some of them like an AMD. I mean, come on. That's not a reasonable multiple.”
Listen at 10:56
Micron and Nvidia will generate one-third of S&P earnings growth in 2026.
“In 2026, Micron and Vidya will be a third of all our S&P earnings growth.”
Listen at 13:01
Micron and Nvidia will account for 40% of S&P earnings growth in 2027.
“In 2027, those two companies will be 40% of all earnings growth in the S&P.”
Listen at 13:06
Market divergence between technology and other stocks will persist until rates stabilize.
“I do think this bifurcation is going to continue until rates settle in”
Listen at 13:21
Earnings growth may prevent nontechnology stocks from reverting to historical multiples.
“the growth rate of earnings may mean that we don't have to go back to those historical multiples”
Listen at 16:58
Current market opportunities appear attractive.
“The opportunity that exists today looks pretty good.”
Listen at 21:30
Cybersecurity will become a larger long-term theme than AI.
“Cybersecurity is going to be bigger than AI.”
Listen at 22:45
Automation and robotics remain in an early development phase.
“Automation, robotics, we're in the very early innings there.”
Listen at 22:50
Nvidia was available at 18 times forward earnings estimates in July.
“you can get this stock at 18 times forward estimates.”
Listen at 23:13
The American economy shifted toward technology over the past 15 years.
“The American economy in the last 15 years, as we've done this show. has moved from a tangible asset economy to a technology-oriented and tangible asset economy.”
Listen at 24:49
Technology is a major cause of current market resilience.
“The resiliency that you have in the market is attributable to technology.”
Listen at 25:10
Joe Terranova would not invest with Bill Ackman.
“I wouldn't have an investment with Ackman if you paid me to do it”
Listen at 27:44
Investors should seek opposing views to test their investment theses.
“If I'm shorting stock, and I don't short many now, or I'm going long, I seek out somebody who's got a different opinion.”
Listen at 30:44
Spotify’s decline reflects weakness affecting other media stocks, not fundamentals.
“I just think this thing has been caught up in a vortex with other media stocks.”
Listen at 34:32
ServiceTitan’s AI platform is powerful and its stock should perform well.
“I do think underneath it all, it's a very powerful concept. And I think the stock should work.”
Listen at 35:19
Crypto exposure should remain small because cryptocurrency is highly volatile.
“I want to keep it small because it's so volatile.”
Listen at 35:47
Cryptocurrency exchanges benefit from transaction activity requiring buyers and sellers.
“I do like the exchanges because you need a buyer and a seller.”
Listen at 35:53
Coinbase’s subscription and services business has higher margins than transactions.
“they're doing more subscriptions and services, which is higher margin business.”
Listen at 36:05
SpaceX could become a core holding and major portfolio winner.
“I think this will be one of the core holdings and a big winner for us.”
Listen at 37:39
SpaceX will provide Starlink, reusable rockets, and eventually a Mars colony.
“With SpaceX, you get Starlink, you get reusable rockets, you get a colony on Mars.”
Listen at 38:15
Ferrari’s scarcity and demand support its long-term durability.
“Ferrari's not going away. I mean, you can't produce enough Ferraris.”
Listen at 38:37
Disney has attractive valuation, products, management, and an improved balance sheet.
“Disney is trading at 12 times earnings. It's got great products, new management. Balance sheet's much better.”
Listen at 38:54
Morgan Stanley’s wealth-management assets under management grew 25% last quarter.
“the wealth management division is growing 25% on AUM last quarter.”
Listen at 39:45
Morgan Stanley’s valuation and decline make it an attractive entry point.
“It's trading at 14 times and it's down 20% from its high. So I think this is a great entry point.”
Listen at 39:56
Berkshire Hathaway is well diversified and well managed.
“I've never sold it. It's so well diversified, so well run.”
Listen at 40:50
Josh Brown will continue holding ServiceTitan.
“I'm going to stay long.”
Listen at 46:19
Meta’s Muse could transform the company by leveraging four billion users.
“I think that Muse is a game changer, and they're going to leverage their 4 billion users.”
Listen at 46:53
Meta Muse reached five million downloads within its first 22 days.
“They had 5 million downloads in the first 22 days.”
Listen at 47:32
Airbnb is currently an attractive buying opportunity.
“Airbnb, this is a great spot to buy it.”
Listen at 47:42
SK Hynix appears undervalued relative to Micron and may rise further.
“SK Hynix. I don't own it. I've been looking at it. It's a little, you know, displaced relative to what we've seen in Micron. And I think it's got some more legs.”
Listen at 48:10
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Books & mentions
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