Oct 9, 2026 · 33 min
Horwitz sees higher yields threatening stocks and housing
6% Yields By Year-End, 9% Mortgages—Stocks Get ‘Rug Pulled’ | Todd Horowitz
The episode lays out a bearish near-term market thesis built around rising borrowing costs, excess oil supply, speculative trading, and stretched technology valuations.
- 1Horwitz forecasts a 6% 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates approaching 9%, raising pressure on stocks, housing, and economic activity.
- 2He remains bullish on gold, silver, Bitcoin, and the dollar while expecting oil and the euro to weaken.
- 3His strategy pairs long-term holdings with options hedges, short-dated premium selling, and tightly controlled overnight exposure.
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Horwitz explains how he can remain bullish on long-term stocks while hedging them and selling short-dated options against his positions.
The brief
Todd Horwitz argues that falling oil prices reflect excess crude supply, limited refining capacity, and normalized shipping, leaving him short-term bearish on energy.
His central warning is that a 6% 10-year Treasury yield and 9% mortgages could expose a stock market lifted by retail participation and thin trading volume.
Horwitz remains bullish on gold, silver, Bitcoin, and the dollar, while describing commercial real estate and AI-linked valuations as vulnerable to higher rates.
The standout tension is strategic rather than directional: he stays bullish on long-term holdings but uses derivatives, short-dated options, and risk controls for a bearish near-term view.
Horwitz sees Bitcoin potentially reaching $100,000 after forming a base near $60,000, but expects it to remain range-bound unless broader volatility rises.