Oct 16, 2026 · 41 min
Housing stress spreads as buyers, sellers and lenders retreat
Housing Crash Deepens: No Recovery Until 2028 | Ron Butler
The episode examines how high borrowing costs, distressed condos and rising foreclosures could delay a meaningful Canadian and U.S. housing recovery until around 2028.
- 1High mortgage rates are freezing transactions while owners with cheap loans resist selling into a much more expensive market.
- 2Negative-cash-flow rentals and distressed condos face mounting pressure from rates, taxes, fees and falling rents.
- 3Stabilization may precede recovery, with single-family homes and townhomes likely to improve before weaker condo segments.
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Ron Butler argues that troubled borrowers may strategically stop paying when falling property values leave mortgages larger than the homes securing them.
The brief
Ron Butler frames Canada’s and the United States’ housing weakness as a financing problem: elevated mortgage rates, rising shelter costs and excess sellers are straining borrowers and builders.
Cheap existing mortgages are keeping many U.S. homeowners from selling into a roughly 7% market, freezing transactions and worsening the imbalance between buyers, sellers and homebuilders.
Canadian condo investors face a sharper squeeze as small units, falling rents, taxes, fees and higher borrowing costs push more properties into negative cash flow.
The discussion turns to British Columbia court-ordered sales, lender-controlled properties and strategic defaults, where falling values can make continued payments harder to justify.
Butler’s recovery case is deliberately slow: stabilization comes first, while single-family homes and townhomes likely regain strength before weaker condo segments, perhaps around 2028.