Oct 8, 2026 · 28 min
Immigration curbs tighten Main Street’s labor supply
New Data Suggests Immigration Policy is Slowing Jobs Market, with Guy Berger
Small-business hiring is improving, but reduced immigration may be limiting labor supply before AI meaningfully reshapes everyday jobs.
- 1Homebase data shows small-business hourly hiring turned positive year over year after a prolonged cooling period.
- 2Employment remains below earlier peaks, while reduced immigration constrains labor supply in food service, retail, entertainment, and healthcare.
- 3AI and automation have produced limited broad effects so far, making wages, turnover, benefits, and participation essential labor-market signals.
Don't miss
Guy Berger explains why improving hiring data can coexist with labor-market strain when immigration inflows fall and employment remains below earlier peaks.
The brief
Guy Berger joins Brandon to examine Homebase data on small-business hourly workers, where hiring has finally turned positive year over year after an extended cooling period.
The recovery is incomplete: employment remains below late-2010s and post-pandemic peaks, leaving employers sensitive to changes in labor supply and worker availability.
Berger links reduced immigration inflows to tighter labor supply in food service, retail, entertainment, and healthcare, focusing on observed employment effects rather than political debate.
AI and automation appear in service robots, hotel operations, chatbots, and software tools, but their broad impact on Main Street employment remains early and limited.
The sharpest takeaway is methodological: wages, turnover, benefits, and healthcare costs reveal labor-market pressure that the unemployment rate alone can miss.