Sep 16, 2026 · 11 min
Markets brace for the Fed’s first hike since 2023
Fed Decision Awaited with Hike Odds Seen Above 90%
The decision could reset expectations across markets as traders weigh a highly probable hike against elevated Treasury yields and rising oil prices.
- 1Futures markets assign more than a 90% probability to the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023.
- 2Treasury yields stand at 19-year highs while oil prices continue to rise ahead of the announcement.
- 3Trading could remain subdued before the Federal Reserve releases its decision at 2 p.m. Eastern.
Don't miss
The episode highlights futures markets assigning more than a 90% probability to the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023.
The brief
The Schwab Market Update previews Wednesday’s trading session as markets await the Federal Reserve’s 2 p.m. Eastern policy decision.
Futures markets put the odds of a rate hike above 90%, pointing to the first increase since 2023 while leaving investors focused on what follows.
Treasury yields have reached 19-year highs and oil prices are rising again, adding pressure to a market already focused on monetary policy.
The clearest near-term tension is between strong expectations for a hike and potentially subdued trading before the announcement.
What was said on this episode
6 statements · 5 negative · 1 mixed
A split Fed vote today could damage the Federal Reserve's credibility.
“A split vote today could challenge the Fed's credibility”
Listen at 2:28
Higher 2027 PCE projections could unsettle markets through higher-for-longer rates.
“Any rise would likely have futures traders consider a higher-for-longer rate picture that might unsettle the market.”
Listen at 3:27
Gasoline approaching $5 per gallon would pressure consumers and policymakers.
“A move toward $5 a gallon gasoline would be a major consumer and policy headwind.”
Listen at 3:42
Rising Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
“Rising yields make it more costly for consumers and businesses to borrow money.”
Listen at 3:58
Low strategic reserves reduce oil-market cushion and partly drive crude prices higher.
“strategic U.S. reserves are the lowest since 1982, providing far less cushion and partly explaining the continued rise in crude prices”
Listen at 5:39
Trump's opposition to slowing AI development might reduce related legislative efforts.
“His opposition to an AI slowdown might curb legislative efforts to accomplish that.”
Listen at 8:04
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.