Sep 1, 2026 · 28 min
Markets weigh breakout hopes against rising rate pressure
‘Calm Before The Storm’: Violent Break Ahead, Here's What Moves First | Chris Vermeulen
The episode tests whether a broad market consolidation reflects bullish accumulation or mounting pressure from rates, inflation, bonds, and housing.
- 1Chris Vermeulen remains cautiously bullish on equities while acknowledging that consolidation can precede either continuation or reversal.
- 2He sees Bitcoin offering more upside than gold, but neither asset has confirmed a durable long-term uptrend.
- 3Elevated rates could pressure bonds and Canadian housing even as oil, equities, and population growth support parts of the economy.
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Vermeulen explains why consolidation usually follows the prevailing trend, while warning that downsloping long-term averages can make the pause less reassuring.
The brief
After a strong rally, stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and bonds have entered tense sideways trading, leaving the central question unresolved: accumulation before another advance, or suspension before a deeper break?
Chris Vermeulen favors equities and sees Bitcoin with greater upside potential than gold, but says neither asset has established a confirmed long-term uptrend.
His technical case is selective: equities remain broadly bullish, oil could climb toward $100, and AI stocks may regain strength, while gold faces resistance and bonds remain under pressure.
The macro risk is higher-for-longer rates: persistent inflation could weigh on bonds, affordability, and Canadian housing despite immigration-driven demand.
Vermeulen says his team remains long the S&P 500 and Nasdaq after trimming some S&P exposure, treating price action and market cycles as the guide.