Sep 9, 2026 · 47 min
Markets weigh strong earnings against higher rates and AI concentration
Rate and Market Uncertainty
The episode connects monetary-policy uncertainty and portfolio positioning with a deeper examination of Apollo’s transformation and Leon Black’s contested legacy.
- 1Strong earnings have supported equities, but elevated Treasury yields and possible Federal Reserve changes could challenge that resilience.
- 2Investors may find income and diversification beyond mega-cap technology as the AI cycle broadens across sectors.
- 3Apollo’s institutional evolution sits alongside scrutiny of Leon Black’s Epstein ties, wealth, art collection, and efforts to shape his legacy.
Don't miss
Bill Cohan connects Leon Black’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein and the Deckert report to Apollo’s institutional evolution and Black’s contested legacy.
The brief
Seema Shah argues that strong earnings have carried equities through geopolitical and tariff concerns, but elevated Treasury yields and possible Federal Reserve changes could make higher rates a more serious headwind.
Jay Hatfield questions how inflation is measured, weighs oil and shelter effects on rate cuts, and turns to Marvell, Broadcom, preferred-stock ETFs, and income-oriented investing.
Omar Aguilar makes the case for bonds as both income and diversification, while urging investors to look beyond mega-cap technology as the AI cycle enters its next phase.
Bill Cohan, author of Money to Burn, examines Leon Black’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, the Deckert report, and what Apollo leaders may have known.
The conversation widens from Apollo’s insurance and private-credit strategy to Black’s art, family history, wealth, and possible effort to rehabilitate his public image.
What was said on this episode
28 statements · 15 positive · 7 negative · 2 mixed · 4 neutral
Corporate earnings growth will remain strong but slow from current rates.
“we think it's still strong growth ahead, but the pace, you know, that second derivative starts to show through and you get a slight slowdown.”
Listen at 2:59
U.S. equities will post more modest gains through the rest of 2026.
“that means slightly more modest gains ahead for the remainder of 26.”
Listen at 3:24
U.S. midterm elections typically increase market volatility.
“midterms they create a lot of noise create a lot of volatility within the market”
Listen at 3:46
Markets typically refocus on fundamentals after midterm-election uncertainty clears.
“once the midterms are over and uncertainty starts to clear up again, the market typically returns to focusing on what usually drives it”
Listen at 4:09
Midterm elections are unlikely to drive the next phase of data-center construction.
“the midterms themselves are unlikely to be the driving force behind what happens next to that data center build-out.”
Listen at 4:37
Treasury yields around 4.80% are not yet a major equity-market concern.
“with Treasuries at 480, to us, this isn't a real concern for equity markets.”
Listen at 6:09
Higher Treasury yields may limit equity gains for the rest of 2026.
“it just means that maybe the speed limit is a little bit lower for equities for the rest of the year.”
Listen at 6:13
Higher-than-expected inflation would likely prompt a Fed rate hike.
“If it's higher than that, then absolutely, I do think the Fed is likely to hike.”
Listen at 6:56
The Federal Reserve should wait longer before changing rates.
“I do think they should be standing by for a little bit longer”
Listen at 7:00
The Federal Reserve should rely on real consumption and prices.
“the Fed should use real consumption and real prices.”
Listen at 11:38
Correcting PCE components would produce an annualized inflation reading of 1.8%.
“if you corrected PCE for those two components that are ridiculous, portfolio management and software. you would also get a 1.8% number.”
Listen at 13:14
Underlying inflation is currently 1.3%.
“It's 1.3%.”
Listen at 13:59
Oil-price pass-through means rates should not be cut immediately.
“we would not cut rates right now because oil prices do bleed through the core”
Listen at 14:16
The United States does not currently have an inflation problem.
“We do not have an inflation problem.”
Listen at 14:57
A Fed rate hike would be an extremely poor decision under current conditions.
“they possibly could raise rates, but that would be incredibly stupid.”
Listen at 15:04
The Fed should potentially cut rates if oil prices decline.
“Only potentially a cut if we do get lower oil prices.”
Listen at 15:31
Marvell is worth at least $300 per share over the longer term.
“So it's at least a $300 stock.”
Listen at 16:38
Holding rapidly growing chip companies for two or three years will produce strong returns.
“if you just hold them over two or three years, you're going to have fantastic returns.”
Listen at 16:42
Broadcom has a conservative target price of $450.
“that gets you to 450. We think that's really conservative.”
Listen at 17:09
Preferred-stock ETFs can provide equity-like returns with lower volatility.
“you can get equity-like returns with much lower volatility.”
Listen at 17:54
Preferred-stock investments have beta around 0.4 and returns of 8–10%.
“0.4 betas eight nine ten percent returns”
Listen at 18:00
Mark Rowan and Josh Harris recognized Epstein’s intentions and avoided engaging with him.
“they were, how shall we say, I think, onto his game a little bit. Didn't want to engage with him.”
Listen at 35:09
Mark Rowan reshaped Wall Street through Apollo’s private-credit business.
“Mark Rowan at Apollo through private credit, which, you know, is an important... uh subject on wall street now has really recreated what wall street is all about”
Listen at 36:29
Mark Rowan has made Apollo more institutional and supportive.
“Mark, I think, has really tried to make this into a much more institutional firm”
Listen at 37:26
Leon Black is Apollo’s largest individual shareholder with 85 million shares.
“I think he's the single largest individual shareholder. That's exactly right. 85 million shares.”
Listen at 38:28
Leon Black may seek a public-image rehabilitation similar to Mike Milken’s.
“I think he would like, this is me projecting here, a Mike Milken-like rehabilitation.”
Listen at 39:09
Leon Black plans to convert the Woolworth Mansion into a public art venue.
“I think the plan is to turn that into his version of the Noya Gallery and put a lot of his artwork in there, renovate it, put his artwork in there, open it so that people can see it”
Listen at 42:00
Leon Black paid $130 million for Edvard Munch’s The Scream.
“He paid $130 million for it.”
Listen at 42:35
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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