Sep 17, 2026 · 1h 30m
McClellan sees a bullish window before 2028 risks converge
Time To Start Getting REALLY Bullish? | Tom McClellan
The episode sets a near-term bullish market case against warnings about credit, leverage, valuations, bonds, and deteriorating indicators.
- 1Tom McClellan sees seasonal weakness fading as breadth, liquidity, and presidential-cycle patterns turn more supportive.
- 2High-yield credit remains the key bearish divergence, while margin debt could fuel a final surge before becoming a larger risk.
- 3New Harbor agrees markets may rise further but emphasizes outlier risks, elevated valuations, bond uncertainty, and defensive positioning.
Don't miss
Tom McClellan's bullish argument peaks as he says seasonal weakness is nearly over, breadth is strong, and liquidity factors are turning supportive.
The brief
Tom McClellan argues that seasonal weakness is nearly over and that presidential cycles, improving breadth, and liquidity could support a market turn within days.
His bullish case rests on historical patterns and fading headwinds, but high-yield credit remains a bearish divergence that could invalidate the signal.
McClellan identifies 2028 as a possible convergence point for margin debt, oil, interest rates, and valuations, while cautioning against precise price forecasts.
After the interview, New Harbor agrees that markets may have room to rise but stresses outlier risks, elevated valuations, uncertain bonds, and deteriorating indicators.
The episode's central tension is whether historical cycles offer a timely market signal—or obscure the damage that a defensive portfolio must prepare for.
What was said on this episode
29 statements · 13 positive · 13 negative · 3 neutral
Tom expects to turn strongly bullish within approximately one week.
“I am looking for the moment, probably within the next week, to turn bullish, and then I'm going to be bullish as all get out.”
Listen at 1:33
Tom expects continued strong performance from the stock market.
“And I see continued great things for the stock market ahead.”
Listen at 3:47
The third year of a presidential term is usually an up year for stocks.
“Absent conditions like that, you can count on the third year being an up year.”
Listen at 5:15
Tom expects the current stock-market bottom to complete within about one week, followed by a rise.
“And somewhere between now and about. a week from now, uh, we should get the last of these bottoms and then we start really climbing.”
Listen at 7:13
Election certainty matters more to investors than the specific midterm result.
“The actual outcome of the election matters way far less than the certainty of knowing that we have an outcome.”
Listen at 9:11
Current stock-market strength is more likely to continue than reverse.
“But generally speaking, strength tends to continue. We don't have signs of weakness showing up.”
Listen at 10:52
Tom expects to become strongly bullish on stocks within approximately one week.
“So I'm not bullish today, but I am looking for the moment probably within the next week to turn bullish and then I'm going to be bullish as all get out.”
Listen at 12:22
A three-year high in breadth typically limits the next three-month drawdown to about 10%.
“The answer typically is about 10% is the worst you see.”
Listen at 16:10
Tom does not expect a severe stock-market drawdown absent a black-swan event.
“And so we can figure that we're not going to see too bad of a drawdown.”
Listen at 17:17
Tom expects high-yield credit's final low within about one week, followed by improvement.
“So that's why I'm thinking that the final price low is probably within a week or so from us. And then we start going higher.”
Listen at 19:47
The bearish seasonal window should end within about one week, giving way to bullish seasonality.
“And so if this is going to get anything done, it's got about a week left to get whatever done, it's going to get done. And then we run out of time and we're transitioning into a new bullish time window.”
Listen at 20:54
Tom evaluates corporate high-yield bonds as poor investments.
“These are horrible investments, corporate high yield bonds. They're junk bonds. They are horrible investments. They don't deserve your money.”
Listen at 22:00
Tom expects liquidity conditions to improve and support markets.
“I think that liquidity is going to get better. and is going to start doing well.”
Listen at 22:32
Tom says quantitative easing has historically been bullish for equities.
“And every time we've had them, they've been invariably bullish.”
Listen at 27:13
Tom says quantitative easing has historically harmed bond prices.
“Every time you have QE, like we had back in 2009, the bond market tanks.”
Listen at 29:04
Tom is currently bearish on bonds.
“And so I'm bearish on bonds right now for a lot of reasons”
Listen at 29:43
Gold prices lead subsequent interest-rate movements by approximately 20 months.
“Gold prices give us about a 20-month leading indication for what interest rates are going to do.”
Listen at 32:41
Gold’s path predicts interest-rate direction and turning points, not proportional magnitude.
“But the direction of travel and the timing of the turns does match up.”
Listen at 33:54
Tom considers 30-year yields near 6% and 10-year yields near 5.5% plausible.
“Those sound reasonable to get there from here.”
Listen at 34:55
Higher long-term yields would create significant pain for prospective homebuyers.
“And so it's not going to be fun.”
Listen at 35:33
Tom expects oil prices to rise further based on gold’s prior path.
“So oil prices according to gold still have a lot further to go.”
Listen at 36:43
Tom expects interest rates and oil prices to peak around August 2028.
“you get about August of 2028 should be the peak for interest rates and peak for oil prices.”
Listen at 38:49
Commercial positioning confirms that oil prices are likely to rise further.
“So that's another confirmation that oil prices have higher to go.”
Listen at 42:13
Oil’s uptrend is expected to persist until 2028 if the gold correlation holds.
“So the uptrend is due to last until 2028, if we're going to perfectly echo gold prices.”
Listen at 43:35
Higher oil prices and interest rates are expected to persist for longer.
“it looks like higher for longer is the bet to make”
Listen at 43:59
Tom treats the presidential third-year effect as a highly reliable bullish stock-market signal.
“When you have something that always works, it's really hard to argue about that, argue against it.”
Listen at 51:29
A balanced federal budget would remove liquidity and weigh on stock prices.
“If Congress ever decides to rein in its spending and have a balanced budget, that would be a big bearish factor.”
Listen at 52:27
Crude oil prices and interest rates are expected to top out in 2028.
“We have 2028 is when crude oil prices and interest rates are due to top out.”
Listen at 53:37
A margin-debt collapse is expected to hurt markets around the 2029 presidential transition.
“you're going to be suffering from the downside of the margin debt collapse in your first year in office in 2029.”
Listen at 53:48
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.