Oct 16, 2026 · 28 min
Midterm polls expose Republican turnout risks
1126: Secret Podcast: So Many Bad Things
The episode connects a difficult Senate map and weak off-year turnout prospects to broader questions about Republican cohesion and accountability.
- 1Senate polling shows Democrats nearing or surpassing 50 percent in several competitive states.
- 2Republicans may consolidate late, but off-year turnout could limit how much that recovery changes outcomes.
- 3The hosts describe Trump allies as increasingly focused on oversight, pardons, and protecting themselves.
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The hosts argue that competition for pardons could intensify as Trump insiders anticipate Democratic oversight and turn against one another.
The brief
Jonathan Last and Sarah Longwell open early to discuss Zambia settling copper exports in renminbi, using the move to frame de-dollarization as a threat to U.S. borrowing costs and fiscal stability.
The hosts scrutinize Katie Zacharia’s legal background, including work at a Beijing law firm and for Fix California, while questioning claims tied to her lack of bar admission.
Sarah Longwell reviews Senate polling across Texas, Ohio, Maine, Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia, finding Democrats near or above 50 percent in several races.
The central electoral tension is whether Republicans can return home before November—and whether late consolidation can overcome the turnout disadvantage of an off-year election.
The episode’s sharpest political turn comes with the prospect of Democratic oversight, as Trump allies compete for pardons and insiders weigh turning against one another.
Jonathan closes with a Wall Street Journal account of Kimberly Guilfoyle’s final days in the Trump orbit, including her stylist and travel companion, Fancy James.