Oct 16, 2026 · 17 min
Mortgage rates test a ceiling as inflation keeps pressure on the Fed
Did mortgage rates peak this week?
The episode weighs whether Treasury resistance and improving mortgage spreads can contain borrowing costs despite persistent inflation risks and possible further Fed tightening.
- 1Treasury resistance near 5.35% may matter more for mortgage rates than recent hawkish economic news.
- 2Improved mortgage spreads are helping keep rates near 7.25% to 7.60% instead of pushing higher.
- 3Jobless claims remain near historic lows, leaving the monitored recession trigger unbreached for now.
Don't miss
Logan Mohtashami explains why a 5.35% resistance level in the 10-year Treasury yield could matter more than a week of hawkish economic news.
The brief
Sarah Wheeler and Logan Mohtashami examine whether mortgage rates have peaked after the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back from recent highs.
Mohtashami argues that resistance near 5.35% on the 10-year yield matters more than hawkish inflation and economic news pushing yields higher.
With mortgage rates around 7.33%, improved spreads are cushioning borrowers; the near-term range remains roughly 7.25% to 7.60%.
An October Fed hike has become a toss-up, while conflict and energy prices could determine whether policymakers need to go further.
The episode closes on recession risk: jobless claims remain near historic lows, and the labor-market threshold Mohtashami tracks has not been breached.
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