Sep 22, 2026 · 20 min
Mortgage rates test housing demand above 7%
Mortgage Rates 8%, 6% or the base case?
The rate path could determine whether housing demand weakens further or stabilizes near the analyst’s base case.
- 1Demand and listings weakened as mortgage rates moved above 6.64% and then 7%.
- 2Mohtashami’s base case puts mortgage rates near 6.50% to 6.75% if geopolitical and oil pressures ease.
- 3An 8% rate scenario depends on broader economic and geopolitical uncertainty, including Treasury yields and oil markets.
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Mohtashami lays out the conditions that could push mortgage rates toward 8% while contrasting them with his 6.50% to 6.75% base case.
The brief
Logan Mohtashami opens with the latest housing tracker, focusing on how mortgage rates are reshaping demand, listings, and the near-term housing outlook.
The recent rebound in housing demand faded as mortgage rates crossed roughly 6.64% and then 7%, a shift Mohtashami links to weaker pending-sales and listings trends.
His base case places mortgage rates around 6.50% to 6.75% if geopolitical conflict ends and oil flows normally, but an 8% outcome remains possible under greater pressure.
The rate outlook also turns on the 10-year Treasury yield, ongoing conflict, midterm elections, the Houthis, and uncertainty about artificial intelligence and the economy.
The episode’s central tension is whether easing geopolitical and oil-market pressures can restore rate stability before higher borrowing costs further suppress housing activity.