Sep 28, 2026 · 17 min
Mortgage spreads could shape housing’s next three years
Mortgage spreads: the key for housing in 2026, 2027 & 2028
Mortgage rates depend on more than Treasury yields, and the gap between them could determine whether housing demand strengthens or stalls through 2028.
- 1Mortgage spreads, not Treasury yields alone, will help determine whether mortgage rates reach 6% or 8%.
- 2Housing data tends to perform better below a 6.64% mortgage rate, while higher borrowing costs suppress demand.
- 3Political and economic policy claims could move markets, but Mohtashami argues they warrant skepticism ahead of the midterm elections.
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Logan Mohtashami lays out why a mortgage rate near 6% versus 8% would produce sharply different housing-market conditions.
The brief
Logan Mohtashami argues that mortgage spreads—not Treasury yields alone—will be decisive for housing conditions from 2026 through 2028.
An unusually volatile bond-market week revives the possibility of mortgage rates reaching either 6% or 8%, with sharply different consequences for buyers and activity.
Mohtashami says housing data generally performs better below a 6.64% mortgage rate, while higher borrowing costs can suppress demand.
The discussion widens to political messaging and possible policy changes, from trade developments to diesel bans and capital-gains policy.
With the midterm elections approaching, Mohtashami’s central warning is to treat ambitious economic claims skeptically rather than assume they will reshape markets.