Sep 14, 2026 · 1h 17m
Listen from 28:42
Listen at 28:42
Oil shock puts Fed rate hikes back in focus
The Rate Hikes Are Coming
The episode connects higher energy costs, fiscal deficits, and sticky inflation to a potentially more restrictive path for monetary policy and riskier AI valuations.
- 1Higher oil prices could revive inflation and push the Fed toward rate hikes despite pressure from households and businesses.
- 2AI companies face a sharp contradiction between extraordinary investment ambitions and warnings that the technology could create catastrophic risks.
- 3Apple’s foldable iPhone and John Ternus’s succession test whether the company can extend its legacy beyond Tim Cook.
Don't miss
Both hosts predict that elevated oil prices and persistent inflation will lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
The brief
Scott Galloway and Ed Elson open with UC Regents business and personal catch-up before turning to the economic forces shaping markets and households.
Oil above $100, persistent inflation, and large deficits raise the prospect of renewed Federal Reserve tightening, with fuel costs spreading into groceries, transportation, and spending.
The hosts examine prospective OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs, weighing their huge financial ambitions against warnings about catastrophic AI risk and the pressure to keep pace with China.
They then test the AI boom’s economics, asking whether projected revenue can justify capital spending and valuations that may face scrutiny in future S-1 filings.
Apple’s foldable iPhone becomes a test of product judgment, while John Ternus inherits the challenge of steering a company shaped by Steve Jobs and Tim Cook.
The episode closes with both hosts predicting a Fed hike, while considering political pressure, central-bank independence, and the timing of further increases.
What was said on this episode
25 statements · 8 positive · 15 negative · 2 neutral
The University of California is a $54 billion enterprise, mostly comprising its hospital system.
“it's a $54 billion enterprise and about $35 billion of it is the hospital system”
Listen at 2:34
The University of California is the greatest economic elevator in history.
“It's also the greatest economic elevator in history”
Listen at 2:48
U.S. prices have cumulatively increased 40% since January 2020.
“the inflation in the United States is pretty dramatic. It's a 40% cumulative price increase since January of 2020.”
Listen at 8:06
Corporate bankruptcies are up 12%, the highest level in over a decade.
“Corporate bankruptcy is up 12%, which is the greatest in over a decade.”
Listen at 8:37
Trump’s oil-stock trading while overseeing policy constitutes a business model, not merely a conflict.
“Trump trading oil stocks while overseeing the policy, you know, it's gone from a conflict of interest to a business model.”
Listen at 9:46
Trump’s proposed $5,000 adult payment will not happen because it is mathematically unaffordable.
“this is just fucking stupid and is never going to happen because of the math.”
Listen at 13:54
The United States can reduce its fiscal deficit through tax and spending reforms.
“There is a reasonable path here. We have fucked this up. We can unfuck it.”
Listen at 17:47
U.S. inflation may remain at 3%–5% for a sustained period, possibly indefinitely.
“possibly forever”
Listen at 21:03
Investors should increase stock exposure because inflation erodes purchasing power.
“you have to invest more aggressively in stocks than ever before because your purchasing power is going down.”
Listen at 21:57
A mixed portfolio of stocks and bonds remains sensible for investors.
“a mixed portfolio of stocks and bonds makes sense”
Listen at 23:29
Interest rates will rise by the end of 2026.
“100% by the end of the year is my view”
Listen at 26:32
Governments should control frontier AI companies and impose extensive safety regulation.
“Government needs to take control of these companies and put in place.”
Listen at 35:17
Gun owners should bear responsibility when household weapons cause a death.
“if you are not a responsible gun owner and someone in your house kills someone, you are responsible.”
Listen at 38:47
The FAA would ground Boeing 737 MAX planes after a credible 10% crash-risk claim.
“The FAA would say, okay, ground all planes. Ground them.”
Listen at 42:59
China’s AI regulations are roughly 100 times stricter than U.S. regulations.
“China has some of the strictest AI regulations in the world. It's 100 times stricter than ours.”
Listen at 44:28
AI-related valuations will undergo an enormous downward correction.
“We're going to have an enormous correction down.”
Listen at 51:29
OpenAI-like AI companies could become history’s most profitable within years.
“they're going to be the most profitable companies in history within a few years”
Listen at 53:49
Apple will sell more foldable phones in 60 days than the market sold in seven years.
“I think Apple is going to come in. And sell more foldable phones in the first 60 days that have been sold in the last seven years across the entire market.”
Listen at 1:01:32
Apple’s foldable iPhone could become a successful product.
“I think this could be a hit for them.”
Listen at 1:02:19
Apple’s current growth prospects and technological innovation are unimpressive.
“I don't find it that impressive.”
Listen at 1:03:52
Apple should prioritize building data centers over selling foldable iPhones.
“I would be more bullish, actually, on building a data center than selling a foldable iPhone”
Listen at 1:04:32
John Ternus is unlikely to match Steve Jobs and Tim Cook’s legacies.
“the odds are no”
Listen at 1:08:22
Apple is unlikely to remain the world’s most valuable company for long.
“It is very rare that you stay at the top of the heap for very long.”
Listen at 1:12:11
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points.
“I'm going to raise rates a quarter of a point.”
Listen at 1:12:58
Kevin Walsh will raise interest rates at the upcoming decision.
“I think he raises.”
Listen at 1:13:24
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.