Oct 18, 2026 · 1h 22m
Rare earths and small-cap bets face a tougher market
S12 Ep14: Sunday Roast featuring Harena Rare Earths Plc + 12 Stocks Of 2026 Quarterly Review #HREE #DGQ #SVNS #ARS #BZT #EPP #SVML #GMET #XTR #AMRQ #JLP #AJAX #REV #INC #LMIN #TAR #HALO
The episode connects Madagascar’s strategic minerals opportunity with the funding, execution and sentiment risks confronting small-cap investors.
- 1Harena Rare Earths presents Madagascar’s Ampasindava project as a strategically important source of rare earths outside China.
- 2The hosts review a portfolio up roughly 67% year to date while questioning whether several holdings delivered promised corporate progress.
- 3Upcoming IPOs and new listings offer potential catalysts, but weak tungsten markets, financing needs and risk-off sentiment remain significant constraints.
Don't miss
Ivan Murphy lays out why Ampasindava could become a strategically valuable rare-earth project outside China, while confronting its permitting, funding and partnership hurdles.
The brief
Ivan Murphy, executive chairman of Harena Rare Earths, explains why the Ampasindava ionic-clay project in Madagascar could matter strategically outside China, as permitting and processing partnerships advance.
The rare-earth discussion turns on execution: the project has history under Tantalus, needs funding and partners, and could attract strategic or takeover interest if its value is demonstrated.
The hosts then review a portfolio up roughly 67% year to date, weighing Delta Gold, Age of Met Resources, Energy Pathways, Jubilee, Ajax and other small-cap holdings.
Their reassessment is less celebratory than the headline return: operational delays, financing requirements and weak tungsten sentiment test whether companies are delivering the progress investors expected.
The episode closes with quarterly picks and possible IPOs, then shifts to football, Formula One and television as the hosts describe a risk-off market still active in deals.
What was said on this episode
54 statements · 49 positive · 3 negative · 2 neutral
Hard-rock rare-earth projects require more time, complexity, and capital than ionic-clay projects.
“Hard rock projects are great, but they're going to take much longer and they're going to be much more complicated and they're going to need a lot more money.”
Listen at 8:31
Harena can begin production in 2028, approximately 22–24 months after the interview.
“we can be in production in about 22-24 months so in 2028”
Listen at 10:11
Harena estimates production startup costs at approximately 150 million for 600,000 tonnes of proven rare earths.
“our whole get into production cost from our 600,000 tonnes of proven... rare earths is about 150 million”
Listen at 12:24
Harena’s project has an estimated NPV of approximately 350 million under low-case pricing.
“the NPV it gives us, which is about 350 million on the low case pricing”
Listen at 12:39
Harena’s exploitation permit allows it to advance its pilot plant, laboratory, and environmental work.
“what it allows us to do is to move forward with the pilot plant and the lab, complete our environmental work”
Listen at 14:33
Mining projects fail without proper environmental and social policies and structures.
“The projects don't work if you don't do that properly.”
Listen at 15:40
Harena regularly receives funding from the US government.
“we are a regular recipient of money from the US government”
Listen at 23:26
Harena’s planned concentrate will be primarily weighted toward neodymium and praseodymium.
“we're going to be producing a concentrate that's largely skewed towards NDPR, neodymium, presodymium.”
Listen at 26:52
Ivan says valuation analysis indicates Harena could be worth several hundred million.
“Claude will tell you that were worth several hundred million”
Listen at 35:35
Harena expects to raise additional cash in the coming months.
“we're going to want to put some more cash in soon”
Listen at 37:41
Ivan believes larger critical-minerals companies should acquire Harena.
“if I was in control of any of those companies, I would have already bought a company like mine because it's all win.”
Listen at 38:54
The reviewed stock portfolio is up approximately 66–67% year to date.
“The stocks are up around about 66-67% on the year”
Listen at 42:34
Kevin sees further upside potential for Delta Gold.
“I think upward potential.”
Listen at 44:22
Kevin expects Delta Gold’s valuation to rise substantially further.
“I think it's got a long way to run”
Listen at 44:35
Kevin expects Sylvanas to perform very well despite its weak share performance.
“I'm still pretty confident that it's going to do very, very well.”
Listen at 45:23
Byzant Resources’ share price is expected to re-rate after revenue and profit begin.
“the share price will simply have to re-rate off the back of that.”
Listen at 47:04
Energy Pathways has become a hydrogen and critical-minerals business with earlier revenue potential.
“it's become a potential hydrogen and critical minerals business with a shorter route to revenue.”
Listen at 48:30
Sovereign Metals’ Casia project has a quantified potential rare-earth byproduct revenue stream.
“the Casio now has a quantified potential third revenue stream”
Listen at 49:26
Charles believes the critical-minerals selloff is technical and prices will recover.
“I believe this is a technical correction I don't believe that it's fundamental for any of them and we will recover.”
Listen at 50:10
Charles evaluates Sovereign Metals as a tier-one asset.
“Sovereign is, you know, in my mind, it's a tier one asset.”
Listen at 50:23
Kevin considers Energy Pathways’ project essential to the United Kingdom.
“the fundamentals of that project are absolutely essential for the united kingdom”
Listen at 51:01
Kevin believes Energy Pathways could potentially increase in value by 100 times.
“something that potentially could go up. literally 100 times”
Listen at 51:45
Charles says high energy prices drive inflation and lower prices would alleviate other problems.
“Energy is the problem behind inflation. Get energy prices down and a lot of your other problems disappear.”
Listen at 52:14
Kevin expects GMAT to return to previous highs above three pounds.
“My view is yes.”
Listen at 54:33
Extract Resources is expected to generate substantial free cash flow by year-end.
“I think if we revisit this at the end of the year, I think extract will have a lot of free cash flow.”
Listen at 55:29
A US ban on specified tungsten sources would tighten availability and re-rate Western tungsten fundamentals.
“When the US... puts in place their ban for Chinese, Iranian, Russian and North Korean sourced tungsten on the 1st of January next year, it will not be obtainable and the fundamentals will re-rate it.”
Listen at 56:21
Charles is certain Guardian Metals will receive grant funding for domestic tungsten production.
“Guardian will get grant funding to do that, I'm certain of it”
Listen at 56:43
Guardian Metals is expected to re-rate by the first quarter of next year.
“it will re-rate back to where it should be in probably the first quarter of next year.”
Listen at 56:46
Amaroq Minerals reached 12,000 ounces of gold production one quarter early.
“we've already hit the 12,000 ounces of gold, a quarter early in Q3.”
Listen at 57:10
Charles believes Amaroq Minerals’ growth is only beginning.
“I think we're really genuinely just getting started”
Listen at 57:49
Charles says Jubilee Metals needs institutional investment to recover.
“it needs an institutional investor to take interest and to buy the stock”
Listen at 58:51
Kevin expects Jubilee Metals’ Zambian strategy to generate substantial cash if successful.
“this is going to be a money print machine. It will be.”
Listen at 1:00:10
Charles believes Jubilee’s Zambian strategy should work.
“If Zambia, you know, it should work. It should work.”
Listen at 1:00:53
Ajax’s McCatcher project could be worth £100–200 million once producing.
“McCatcher especially, he intends to take it into production. And it will be something that's probably worth £100, £200 million once it's in production.”
Listen at 1:04:14
Incanthera’s iSmart agreement could provide recurring revenue from cream orders.
“providing a potential source of recurring revenues.”
Listen at 1:06:12
Kevin believes Incanthera’s intellectual property could help treat skin cancer.
“I think the IP of what they've got is effectively something that can help with skin cancer”
Listen at 1:07:38
Kevin expects Incanthera’s share price to return to 30–40 pence if sales are announced.
“I think we'll be back up at 30, 40p. in no time if that is announced”
Listen at 1:08:11
Kevin selects Extract Resources as his strongest near-term growth candidate.
“I think extract resources. I think that's the one that's got the potential.”
Listen at 1:08:47
Kevin expects Extract Resources’ share price to rise substantially.
“I see many pennies. ahead of us.”
Listen at 1:09:02
Charles expects Age of Met’s Vuitton project to be sold and generate another dividend.
“I do believe that Vuitton will get, will get sold and it will just be a classic dividend payoff again”
Listen at 1:09:10
Phil expects Ajax’s Revali investment to support a natural share-price increase.
“I think that that'll give them a natural upsurge in price”
Listen at 1:09:34
Charles is dissatisfied with Jubilee Metals’ repeated production delays.
“I'm not happy because, again, it's been delays in production”
Listen at 1:10:13
Kevin remains satisfied with Delta Gold, Extract, GMAT, and Sylvanas corporate progress.
“I would be happy with all four.”
Listen at 1:10:39
Charles evaluates Serval Resources as an underappreciated potential winner.
“I think Serval Resources is a sleeping hit.”
Listen at 1:12:44
Charles expects Serval Resources to perform exceptionally well over the next year.
“that, I think, is going to be an absolutely crazy winner over the course of the next 12 months.”
Listen at 1:12:54
Phil selects Battalion as his preferred upcoming IPO because of its technology and materials exposure.
“I'm going to say Battalion because of the tech and the advanced semiconductors and then extreme temp metals.”
Listen at 1:13:19
Kevin expects Liberty Macross to expand its Arizona tungsten asset.
“I think they're going to expand that asset.”
Listen at 1:14:49
Kevin expects Liberty Macross could increase tenfold even if only one-quarter as successful as GMAT.
“even if it's a quarter as good as GMAT, it's going to 10 back.”
Listen at 1:15:06
Liberty Macross is expected to rise when tungsten sentiment improves.
“When it flips, then Liberty will flip with it because they're all trading in sympathy with each other.”
Listen at 1:15:26
Talon Resources is expected to release Eagle Lake drilling results soon.
“We're going to have drilling results pretty soon, I would imagine, from that Eagle Lake drilling.”
Listen at 1:16:32
Talon Resources’ share price could surge if drilling confirms trench results.
“And that's going to go berserk.”
Listen at 1:16:43
Halo Minerals increased Playa Verde reserves to 33.94 million tonnes grading 0.25% copper.
“increase the ore reserves by 5.4% to 33.94 million tonnes, grading 0.25% copper.”
Listen at 1:17:02
Further technical work could increase Halo Minerals’ ore reserves by 25–30%.
“further technical work could increase the ore reserves by another 25% to 30%.”
Listen at 1:17:11
Charles expects Halo Minerals to attract funding partners as copper prices support the project.
“there will be funding partners looking at the copper price.”
Listen at 1:17:35
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Books & mentions
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