Sep 17, 2026 · 29 min
Listen from 1:25
Listen at 1:25
Real trends still make bad investments
When is it a Trend? When is it Hype?
The episode separates durable economic themes from investable businesses and valuations, then applies that discipline to housing and market corrections.
- 1A durable trend can still produce losses when investors pay too much or buy before the business matures.
- 2Housing may offer long-term opportunity, but weak demand and uncertain mortgage rates limit near-term catalysts.
- 3During corrections, steady investing and averaging in can matter more than predicting the market bottom.
Don't miss
The hosts contrast losing money in early ghost-kitchen investing with profiting by waiting for other markets to mature.
The brief
Tyler Crowe, John Quast, and Matt Frankel begin with housing headwinds, examining Lennar’s weak results, mortgage-rate uncertainty, and why recovery may take time.
Figure Technology Solutions offers a counterpoint: faster, cheaper home-equity lending could unlock demand, even while elevated borrowing costs constrain homeowners.
Nuclear stocks, personalized fitness, Web3, and ghost kitchens show the central risk: a real trend does not guarantee sound valuations or capable execution.
The standout lesson comes from early hype-cycle investing: Jon Quast lost money in ghost kitchens, while Matt Frankel benefited from waiting for markets to mature.
On a 10% correction, the hosts favor continued investing, averaging in, and keeping some cash over trying to identify the exact bottom.
What was said on this episode
37 statements · 22 positive · 13 negative · 1 mixed · 1 neutral
Lennar is the largest homebuilder in the United States.
“Lennar, it's the largest home builder in the United States.”
Listen at 0:43
Lennar stock trades below book value.
“Its stock right now trades for less than book value.”
Listen at 0:54
Current housing conditions favor buyers with available cash.
“It's a pretty good time to have money to buy a home right now.”
Listen at 2:29
Mortgage rates will not fall to 1% or less.
“The reality is that ain't happening.”
Listen at 2:45
The housing market has reentered a credit-tightening cycle.
“We're back into a credit tightening cycle.”
Listen at 3:31
Housing conditions are unlikely to improve over the next couple years.
“It's hard to see like over the next couple of years that changing.”
Listen at 3:42
Figure Technology Solutions could benefit from current housing-market dynamics.
“I believe that this business could enjoy some tailwinds given the market dynamics that we see right now.”
Listen at 4:33
Figure Technology Solutions uses blockchain technology.
“It is built on blockchain technology.”
Listen at 4:56
Figure can originate some HELOCs faster and more cheaply than alternatives.
“It can... originate some HELOC loans faster and more cost-effectively than maybe some other things that are out there.”
Listen at 5:01
HELOC demand has recently increased despite remaining below past levels.
“The home equity line of credit, maybe not what it's been in the past, but it is showing an uptick here recently.”
Listen at 6:14
Figure is highly profitable and growing rapidly.
“This is actually a really, really profitable business and growing fast.”
Listen at 6:55
Investors expecting rates to fall should reconsider that thesis.
“Anyone whose thesis is rates are going to go down. needs to rethink their thesis right now.”
Listen at 7:19
Near-term housing investments favor landlords over homebuilders.
“For near-term catalysts, I'd make the argument that the best bets are on the landlords, not on the home builders.”
Listen at 7:39
Persistently high rates will increase renting relative to buying.
“A higher interest rate environment for longer. means that more people are going to be renting than buying.”
Listen at 7:47
American Homes for Rent is relatively insulated from the federal investor-purchase mandate.
“American Homes for Rent's especially interesting because they're kind of insulated from that new federal mandate that large investors can't buy single family homes anymore.”
Listen at 8:06
Homebuilder stocks could be rerated after relatively little positive news.
“It wouldn't take... much good news to cause the market to re-rate these.”
Listen at 8:42
Several highly touted nuclear stocks have fallen 50% to 70%.
“Several of those highly touted nuclear stocks are now down 50, 70.”
Listen at 12:27
Nuclear power growth is probably a durable trend.
“There is probably a durable trend here in terms of growth of nuclear power.”
Listen at 13:05
Nuclear power will play at least as large a role in ten years.
“I don't think any of the three of us think nuclear is going to play less of a role in the power landscape in 10 years than it does now.”
Listen at 14:08
23andMe, Latch, and Offerpad revenues did not justify their valuations.
“They all had revenue, but not that even remotely justified their valuations.”
Listen at 15:02
Personalized health and fitness remains a major long-term trend.
“I still think that's probably a huge... long-term trend”
Listen at 16:37
Wearable devices were expected to revolutionize personalized health and fitness.
“I really thought that wearable devices were just going to revolutionize both of those spaces.”
Listen at 16:47
A durable trend does not ensure company revenue and earnings growth.
“Having the execution at the business level to translate that into actual revenue and earnings is always a different story than the actual trend itself.”
Listen at 18:01
Some nuclear stocks may remain pre-revenue for five to ten years.
“Some of these nuclear stocks out there are pre-revenue and they're expected to be pre-revenue for perhaps the next five to 10 years.”
Listen at 19:18
The metaverse currently lacks meaningful monetization opportunities.
“There's not really anything to monetize there right now.”
Listen at 20:16
Jon’s early ghost-kitchen investments became worthless.
“I had some investments that went to zero because I thought I was getting in early on a real trend.”
Listen at 21:40
Five Below produced Jon’s largest investment gains.
“My biggest gains, and particularly dollar gains, have come from a very simple business called Five Below.”
Listen at 21:55
Jon’s early Block investment is up about 800%.
“Investing early has me sitting on about an 800% gain in my portfolio in block right now”
Listen at 22:58
A 2021 peak-fintech investment would have produced a 75% loss.
“Investing at peak fintech hype in about 2021 would have me sitting on a 75% loss”
Listen at 23:06
Block trades below 20 times expected current-year earnings.
“Block itself trades for less than 20 times expected earnings this year.”
Listen at 23:21
Waiting for a market correction before investing can harm long-term returns.
“waiting for a correction to invest can actually be dangerous.”
Listen at 25:48
Jon would buy substantially more MercadoLibre after a 50% correction.
“if it was to fall 50% or something in a market correction, I would have a really hard time not buying a lot more of that company”
Listen at 26:29
Axon Enterprise is Jon’s top prospective purchase outside his portfolio.
“Axon Enterprise is at the top of the list”
Listen at 26:55
Savings accounts yield 4% and ten-year Treasuries yield 5%.
“you can get 4% on your savings. You can get 5% from 10-year treasuries.”
Listen at 27:35
Brookfield Corporation is Matt’s preferred correction stock.
“My favorite correction stock that I own is Brookfield Corporation.”
Listen at 27:49
Berkshire is another attractive stock for a market correction.
“Berkshire is another great option.”
Listen at 28:01
Berkshire’s $365 billion cash position would help it benefit from a correction.
“They have $365 billion in cash, a great position to benefit if we see a market correction.”
Listen at 28:02
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.