Oct 12, 2026 · 23 min
Retail breakouts challenge an AI-led market
Tech Takes A Break; Figs, Kohls, Victoria’s Secret In Focus
The episode shows how investors can find leadership beyond technology while managing earnings risk, weak sectors, and uncertain entries.
- 1Nasdaq resilience masks semiconductor weakness and crosscurrents beneath the market’s broader power trend.
- 2Figs and Kohl’s offer breakout setups, but earnings timing and uneven business trends complicate entries.
- 3Victoria’s Secret illustrates a staged approach: start small near a trendline, then add after confirmation.
Don't miss
The hosts use Victoria’s Secret’s cup-with-handle setup to explain why a smaller initial position and confirmed-breakout add can manage risk.
The brief
Justin Nielsen and Alissa Coram open with a mildly weaker session: the Nasdaq holds support, but semiconductor weakness and uneven leadership complicate the market picture.
The discussion moves beyond AI to Figs and Kohl’s, where breakouts meet very different business histories, revenue trends, and upcoming earnings catalysts.
Victoria’s Secret provides the clearest risk-management lesson: a possible trendline entry can begin with a smaller position before a confirmed breakout warrants adding.
The broader argument is to follow money flow wherever stocks hold up, using sector ETFs and relative strength to identify leadership outside the dominant technology theme.
What was said on this episode
20 statements · 11 positive · 4 negative · 2 mixed · 3 neutral
The Nasdaq Composite currently remains technically healthy despite recent weakness.
“the NASDAQ composite does not look bad here”
Listen at 1:43
The Nasdaq 100 could move in either direction from its current level.
“we go either way here”
Listen at 3:25
The Russell 2000 has support at its 200-day average but requires further improvement.
“I like the fact that it has gotten support of the 200-day moving average line so far, but it's got a lot of work to do.”
Listen at 4:00
The semiconductor ETF closed decisively below its 21-day moving average.
“we did. decisively close below the 21-day moving average line here today, kind of falling quite a bit.”
Listen at 6:00
Meta materially supported the Nasdaq Composite’s performance.
“Meta quite a bit of credit for that”
Listen at 7:40
Microsoft currently shows strong technical performance within software.
“Microsoft has also in the software space been looking very strong”
Listen at 7:50
The Magnificent Seven stocks remain technically strong overall.
“that magnificent seven is, uh, still looking very strong”
Listen at 8:45
A power trend does not guarantee successful individual-stock investments.
“a power trend does not guarantee success”
Listen at 9:26
Justin recommends limiting individual-stock losses to roughly 7% or 8%.
“doesn't mean I'm going to let something go down more than 7% or 8%”
Listen at 9:46
Figs has an impressive relative-strength rating of 95.
“the RS rating of 95, that's impressive”
Listen at 12:06
Figs is currently technically extended after its advance.
“this is extended”
Listen at 12:55
Figs may offer another entry if it consolidates its recent gains.
“if it can do that, it might offer another opportunity here”
Listen at 13:11
Over 100 S&P 500 companies will probably report earnings over the next couple weeks.
“You're going to probably have over 100 for the next couple weeks of the S&P 500 stocks reporting.”
Listen at 14:31
Retail stocks are repeatedly emerging as technically interesting setups.
“the retail space keeps on coming up”
Listen at 16:03
The retail industry currently operates under difficult conditions.
“retail is tough”
Listen at 16:12
Justin favors a trendline entry for Victoria’s Secret.
“I like the trend line entry here”
Listen at 18:11
Victoria’s Secret recovered quickly after investors reacted negatively to its prior earnings report.
“it seemed like it was a little bit more resistant to you know whatever investors didn't like from that report and uh quickly kind of righted itself”
Listen at 18:44
Victoria’s Secret reported double-digit revenue growth.
“you got the revenue at double digit growth”
Listen at 19:23
Moderna held up while other medical stocks fell sharply.
“Moderna didn't”
Listen at 20:39
Relative-strength lines compare an asset’s performance with the S&P 500.
“that relative strength line is comparing things to the S&P 500”
Listen at 21:15
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.