Sep 29, 2026 · 28 min
Rising yields test markets as AI spending accelerates
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 29th, 2026
The episode connects higher global borrowing costs, a possible yen carry-trade unwind, and massive AI investment to mounting market and political risks.
- 1Synchronized global bond-yield gains raise questions about carry-trade unwinding and where higher rates might cause stress.
- 2Anthropic’s expected IPO highlights whether concentrated demand and enormous AI infrastructure spending can generate adequate returns.
- 3Affordability, energy prices, fiscal policy, and regulation could increasingly constrain technology investment and reshape market expectations.
Don't miss
Dan Ives links Anthropic’s expected IPO and the scale of AI infrastructure spending to the unresolved question of whether the boom can earn adequate returns.
The brief
Ed Yardeni examines the synchronized rise in global bond yields and the Bank of Japan’s role in unwinding the yen carry trade, asking whether higher rates could make something break.
Dan Ives frames Anthropic’s expected IPO as a test of the AI boom: concentrated customers and enormous infrastructure bills must eventually produce returns.
The discussion widens from technology to politics, as gasoline prices, tariffs, Iran, affordability, and a possible oil export ban create new risks for markets.
Ives argues technology capital expenditure remains strong near term, but tax policy, future AI regulation, and fiscal constraints could weaken public-private investment partnerships.
The closing question is whether the Federal Reserve can return inflation to 2% while growth stays broad and higher rates continue shaping global markets.
What was said on this episode
27 statements · 7 positive · 16 negative · 1 mixed · 3 neutral
Bank of Japan rate hikes are unwinding the global carry trade and affecting global bonds
“The Bank of Japan is... raising interest rates, and that is causing an unwind of the global carry trade, which I think is affecting global bonds.”
Listen at 3:01
Bond-market algorithms amplify bearish news and rapidly increase bond yields
“we also have these algorithms that will take any news whatsoever that's out there, and some of that's been bearish. and kind of blow it up so we get these rapid increases in bond yields.”
Listen at 3:20
Two-year Treasury yields indicate further central-bank tightening
“the two-year Treasuries in all the major countries in the world are pointing towards more tightening by central banks.”
Listen at 4:19
Investors should proceed cautiously in equity markets
“we want to proceed with caution here when it comes to the equity market.”
Listen at 4:34
The AI trade is beginning to show stress
“there's starting to be some stresses in the AI trade as well.”
Listen at 5:41
Bonds yielding 5.25 percent are very attractive
“bonds yielding 5.25 percent are very attractive.”
Listen at 6:15
Bond yields may rise above 5.25 percent
“I'm not convinced that 5.25% is necessarily the top in yields.”
Listen at 6:48
Bond yields could reach 5.5 percent
“I would say 5.5%.”
Listen at 7:52
Higher oil prices sustain inflation, prompting tightening that raises bond yields
“Higher for longer oil prices means thickier. Inflation means that central banks are not in a one-and-done mode, but are in a tightening mode, and that in turn is pushing up bond yields.”
Listen at 8:26
The AI revolution remains in an early stage
“we're still third inning of the AI revolution.”
Listen at 12:30
Slowing AI innovation would benefit China
“If they slow down, China wins.”
Listen at 13:10
Slowing U.S. AI innovation would let China narrow the technology gap
“for the U.S., if you actually start to slow down the models, slow down innovation, China will narrow the gap.”
Listen at 14:24
AI data-center deployment and enterprise use cases remain early-stage
“the data center build-out, what companies are looking at when it comes to use cases, it's still early days.”
Listen at 14:48
AI-related spending will reach $4–5 trillion within three to four years
“We're going to have $4 trillion to $5 trillion being spent in the next three to four years.”
Listen at 15:31
Investors will require AI companies to produce returns on spending
“I think investors understand that these companies just can't spend and see no returns.”
Listen at 15:49
Anthropic going public will benefit the broader technology sector
“as Anthropic goes public in others, it's healthy for the overall tech space.”
Listen at 16:14
China benefits whenever U.S. data-center projects are canceled
“the winner for every data center that closes or doesn't happen is China.”
Listen at 17:28
The midterm elections represent an underestimated market risk
“the midterm elections are underestimated as a risk right now.”
Listen at 21:29
High gasoline prices have shifted polling sentiment
“the affordability issues in the last month because of gas at the pump have really seemed to me to have shifted a lot of the sentiment in the polls.”
Listen at 22:33
An oil export ban is a serious policy possibility
“the export ban is something that I think is very much on the table.”
Listen at 22:46
An oil export ban could work for about 30 days
“that could work for 30 days over the very short term.”
Listen at 22:50
An oil export ban is unlikely to be sensible policy
“I don't think It is policy that really makes much sense here”
Listen at 23:01
Additional AI regulation will eventually be introduced
“you're going to have more regulation that will have to be forthcoming on AI at some point.”
Listen at 23:46
Public-private technology partnerships rarely last over long periods
“these public-private partnerships, I mean, I don't know, just all of my background looking in emerging markets, they rarely end up lasting over a long duration of time.”
Listen at 24:33
Technology capital expenditure should remain strong into next year
“the tech capex into next year looks very good.”
Listen at 25:02
Technology capital expenditure will remain strong for the next quarters
“for the next couple of quarters, the CapEx actually looks quite strong, just given where the demand is at.”
Listen at 25:19
Higher interest rates and fiscal spending will persist
“the higher rates are going to stay here, but the higher fiscal is also going to stay here.”
Listen at 26:05
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.