Oct 7, 2026 · 1h 4m
Listen from 15:38
Listen at 15:38
Rivian’s growth meets tougher questions on valuation and execution
Ep 59: $RIVN Q3 Deliveries, $SPCX Breakout, $PSKY & $WBD Merger, $NKE
The episode tests whether Rivian’s delivery growth and technology prospects justify its risks while weighing broader bets on AI infrastructure, media, and consumer brands.
- 1Rivian’s R2 ramp, Volkswagen partnership, software, and autonomy could expand its opportunity, but execution and valuation remain decisive.
- 2SpaceX’s data-center growth raises questions about customer concentration, revenue quality, competition, and the logic of Tesla merger speculation.
- 3Nike, Nvidia, Bumble, and AI infrastructure show how the hosts distinguish operating momentum from attractive investment prices.
Don't miss
The hosts weigh whether Rivian’s operating progress is strong enough to justify buying before the stock reaches an imagined absolute bottom.
The brief
Hamid and Dustin open with Rivian’s record Q3 deliveries, then ask whether the R2 can convert production progress into durable demand, better margins, and a credible path to guidance.
Rivian’s Volkswagen partnership, autonomy ambitions, software potential, and electric delivery vans point to a larger technology opportunity, but supplier constraints and execution keep the thesis conditional.
SpaceX’s rising valuation is tied partly to data-center rentals, prompting scrutiny of revenue quality, customer concentration, competition, and renewed Tesla merger speculation.
The Paramount–Warner Bros. merger, Nike’s prolonged decline, and Nvidia’s approach to a $6 trillion market cap broaden the discussion from corporate events to valuation discipline.
Listener questions turn practical: Bumble’s uncertain turnaround, IREN’s disputed outage report, AI infrastructure concentration, defensive investments, and what price would make Rivian compelling.
The standout tension is simple: Rivian may be operating better, but investors still must decide whether waiting for a perfect bottom matters more than establishing a position.
What was said on this episode
30 statements · 17 positive · 5 negative · 8 neutral
Rivian’s R2 is receiving strong customer acceptance.
“the R2 is getting received well”
Listen at 2:37
Rivian’s quarterly revenue should increase substantially to a record level.
“the revenues should be up pretty substantial, should be record revenues”
Listen at 4:01
Rivian will deliver more than 20,000 vehicles next quarter.
“they'll hit over 20,000 deliveries next quarter”
Listen at 5:09
Rivian will likely deliver near the low end of its guidance next quarter.
“they're probably going to be on the lower end of that guidance, the 23,000 range”
Listen at 5:56
Rivian would set another delivery record with 23,000 vehicles.
“even at 23,000, it's going to be another massive record”
Listen at 6:05
Insider share sales are normal across public companies, including Rivian.
“sales of the shares is the normal operating procedure of almost everybody in these companies, not just Rivian”
Listen at 8:14
Rivian’s technology has significant monetary value.
“Rivian has technology that is worth a pretty significant amount of money”
Listen at 9:56
Rivian will rank second to Tesla in autonomous-driving technology.
“I estimate that they will be the second to Tesla in building autonomy technology well ahead of all other car manufacturers”
Listen at 10:34
Most of SpaceX’s projected revenue increase comes from cancellable data-center rentals.
“the bulk of that $12 billion is coming from data center rentals on these short-term agreements that can be canceled in 90 days”
Listen at 14:44
SpaceX is not currently attractive to buy.
“SpaceX still does not feel like a buy”
Listen at 16:58
Tesla’s future revenue growth depends mainly on robotaxis and Optimus robots.
“the revenue growth basically has to come from robo taxis and Optimus robots”
Listen at 20:10
The SpaceX-Tesla merger will occur.
“i do think that merger is going to happen”
Listen at 21:06
The Paramount-Warner Bros. merger has closed.
“the merger has now closed”
Listen at 25:40
Consumer brands rise and decline over time.
“these brands come and go”
Listen at 28:56
Nike’s stock price is fairly valued.
“the stock price is actually fair”
Listen at 30:11
Nike’s valuation is returning toward more reasonable levels.
“it seems to be coming back down to reality”
Listen at 30:45
Nike is unattractive to own at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.
“this still doesn't seem like a great stock to own at a PE of 22”
Listen at 31:53
Lululemon appears more attractively valued than Nike.
“Lulu seems like a better deal here”
Listen at 33:14
Nvidia’s stock is beginning to gain momentum.
“NVIDIA is finally starting to gain”
Listen at 34:47
Electric vehicles will have multiple winning manufacturers.
“the future is EVs and we're going to have multiple winners”
Listen at 39:27
Netflix should release its strongest movies in theaters.
“the number one thing they need to do is put their good movies in theaters”
Listen at 42:07
Bumble’s product overhaul could create significant dating-app opportunity.
“i'm still very excited about in theory what they're building the opportunity in the dating app space”
Listen at 47:32
Investors should buy IREN shares during the dip.
“I would probably just buy from this dip, not be afraid of this”
Listen at 50:30
IREN’s alleged prolonged power outages are probably not real without company comment.
“if the company is not commented on it, I would be surprised. if it's a real thing”
Listen at 51:32
New data-center operators will struggle to compete with major hyperscalers.
“it's going to be tough for new data center players to... to be able to compete with amazon and google and uh microsoft and uh oracle and spacex”
Listen at 52:05
AI will play a major role in people’s lives.
“AI is going to be playing a very major part in our lives going forward”
Listen at 55:50
OpenAI’s math breakthrough does not change Micron’s investment thesis.
“the story on Micron doesn't change because of this in any way”
Listen at 56:23
Rivian’s current price is suitable for buying shares or starting a position.
“the current price is like totally uh valid uh to to buy more shares or start a position”
Listen at 1:00:56
Rivian’s current stock price may be its best relative to company performance.
“this might be the best stock price for Rivian based on where it's at that has existed”
Listen at 1:02:12
Rivian’s current price is attractive even if it is not the absolute bottom.
“you don't need to get in at the best price. You just want to get in at what is a good price. And I think right now it happens to be a great price”
Listen at 1:03:42
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.