Oct 12, 2026 · 19 min
Starlink tests telecom’s moat as Pepsi confronts pricing pressure
Is Elon Musk Coming for Verizon?
The episode connects a potential satellite challenge to Verizon’s network advantage, then applies the same evidence-first discipline to Pepsi, markets, and AI disruption.
- 1Starlink’s wireless ambitions could pressure established carriers, but satellite latency and terrestrial infrastructure remain meaningful constraints.
- 2Pepsi’s weaker margin outlook and rising commodity costs test whether its brands still support pricing power and an attractive valuation.
- 3The hosts argue that genuine disruption shows up in business results, while hype often survives without measurable deterioration or improvement.
Don't miss
The clearest investing lesson comes from comparing Starlink’s compelling disruption story with the operational evidence required to threaten established carriers.
The brief
SpaceX and Starlink are moving closer to wireless competition after acquiring valuable spectrum, but satellite latency, terrestrial infrastructure, and incumbent networks complicate the threat to Verizon and AT&T.
The Pepsi discussion shifts from technology to consumer economics: weaker margin guidance, higher commodity costs, inflation, and smaller packages raise questions about how much pricing power its brands retain.
Looking back at the pandemic-era decline and October 2022 bottom, the hosts revisit crypto and SPAC collapses—and the costly mistake of assuming investors can easily endure another crash.
The episode’s broader test for disruption is practical: AI and other threats deserve attention when business results reflect them, not merely when an exciting narrative attracts investors.
What was said on this episode
20 statements · 9 positive · 10 negative · 1 neutral
The speaker’s current service is about eight times faster than SpaceX’s $55 offering.
“I tested what my service is here. It was about eight times faster than the offering for $55 from SpaceX.”
Listen at 0:52
SpaceX’s terrestrial network will cost at least $10 billion.
“That's going to cost 10 billion or more.”
Listen at 1:49
Mobile businesses are valued at less than two times sales.
“we value them at less than two times sales”
Listen at 2:07
Each newer SpaceX satellite can support about 40,000 users.
“estimates give each satellite enough bandwidth for about 40,000 users”
Listen at 3:56
A constellation of roughly 11,000 satellites could theoretically serve hundreds of millions of users.
“theoretically a constellation that size, you're talking about hundreds of millions of users”
Listen at 4:11
SpaceX satellites fail after approximately five to seven years.
“Those satellites fail after five to seven years.”
Listen at 4:34
AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon generated over $300 billion in combined revenue last year.
“AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon combined to generate over $300 billion in revenue last year.”
Listen at 5:34
SpaceX is serious about pursuing mobile wireless.
“I do think they're serious about pursuing it.”
Listen at 6:29
The average one-pound potato-chip bag price rose from $4.50 to $6.50.
“The average one-pound bag of potato chips cost $4.50 in 2020. We're at $6.50 now, up almost 50%.”
Listen at 8:22
The average 12-ounce soft-drink can price rose from $0.35 to $0.60.
“Average price of a 12-ounce can of a soft drink up even greater, $0.35 six years ago, now $0.60.”
Listen at 8:32
Pepsi trades near 15 times expected earnings with a dividend yield near 4.7%.
“We're down to about 15 times expected earnings. We got a dividend yield hovering near 4.7% and going up.”
Listen at 11:40
PepsiCo is becoming attractive to long-term investors.
“long term, if we're investors, this is beginning to look... more appetizing”
Listen at 11:52
PepsiCo will be a long-term survivor and winner.
“at some point I think they are a survivor and long-term winner here”
Listen at 12:00
The October 2022 market low was approximately at the December 2021 level.
“at the lows in October 22, we were basically where we were at in December 2021”
Listen at 14:14
Many current investors have not experienced a crash as severe as 2008.
“I think that there is a good percentage of the people who are investors today who haven't been through a 2008 or, you know, a more severe crash.”
Listen at 15:02
Surviving the 2022 downturn does not prepare investors for a severe crash.
“surviving 2022 really gives you your combat stripes”
Listen at 15:27
The S&P 500 delivered a 21.6% average annual return over four years.
“Four-year average annual return, 21.6%. That's more than a double in four years”
Listen at 15:56
Nearly 150 current S&P 500 stocks remain down over five years.
“Out of the current S&P 500, nearly 150 stocks are still down. over the past five years”
Listen at 16:40
About 30% of current S&P 500 stocks are down over five years.
“that's 30% of the current S&P 500”
Listen at 16:49
Lagging sectors could catch up if AI-related innovation benefits them.
“all these laggards catch up”
Listen at 17:29
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.