Oct 13, 2026 · 15 min
State races reshape the investment election map
Top of the Morning: Election Watch - Foreign capital, state capitals
Investors tracking tariffs, export controls, artificial intelligence policy and defense commitments need to watch state and local contests alongside Washington.
- 1State and local elections can influence policy direction alongside congressional and federal contests.
- 2International investors are watching U.S. election outcomes for signals on tariffs, export controls, artificial intelligence and defense commitments.
- 3Thousands of state legislative races, gubernatorial contests and competitive congressional races create multiple sources of election uncertainty.
Don't miss
Shane Lieberman’s overview of the thousands of state legislative races and gubernatorial contests makes the election’s scale beyond Washington concrete.
The brief
Dan Cassidy opens UBS Chief Investment Office’s Election Watch with Kurt Reiman and Shane Lieberman, arguing that investors should look beyond Washington when assessing the midterm stakes.
The discussion connects U.S. election outcomes to issues watched abroad, including tariffs, export controls, artificial intelligence policy, international investment decisions and U.S. defense commitments.
Shane Lieberman shifts the focus to state capitals, where thousands of legislative races, gubernatorial contests and open seats could redirect policy before federal outcomes settle.
The congressional outlook adds another layer of uncertainty: early voting, turnout and competitive House and Senate races could produce surprises investors should monitor through Election Day.
The episode’s central takeaway is geographic: understanding the election’s market implications requires tracking state leadership and local contests as closely as national power.
What was said on this episode
8 statements · 2 positive · 6 neutral
Over 6,000 state legislative seats and roughly 36 governorships are up for election.
“well over 6 000 state legislative seats are up for election, about three dozen governors, and all of those governors races, 19 are open seats”
Listen at 6:37
More than 160 statewide ballot measures appear on 2026 ballots nationwide.
“there are over 160 statewide ballot measures on ballots across the country”
Listen at 7:15
California voters are considering a statewide wealth tax ballot measure.
“this wealth tax in California”
Listen at 7:26
More than 100 million people are projected to vote in the 2026 election.
“Current projections is that well over 100 million people will vote”
Listen at 8:21
Republicans would hold a 52–48 Senate advantage after gaining North Carolina.
“that leaves a 52-48 advantage for Republicans”
Listen at 9:45
Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system could make its Senate result especially consequential.
“I think that Alaska may be one of the more interesting ones to me because that has a system of voting that many of our listeners may not be familiar with”
Listen at 10:36
An Alaska-determined Senate outcome may take several days to resolve.
“if it comes all down to Alaska, we may be waiting a few days to find out who controls the Senate”
Listen at 11:12
Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to control the chamber.
“Democrats need a... plus four net gain to control the Senate”
Listen at 11:32
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Books & mentions
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