Sep 30, 2026 · 21 min
Sticky home prices defy rate fears and weak inventory growth
Why home prices are still positive
The discussion separates noisy economic headlines from the housing data and market conditions that would actually signal a national price decline.
- 1Lagging Case-Shiller and FHFA data suggest home-price growth is cooling gradually rather than collapsing abruptly.
- 2Price-cut percentages reveal local market health, with normal seller behavior differing sharply from the overheated COVID period.
- 3A major national decline would require substantially more inventory, faster-moving data and significantly more distressed selling.
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Logan Mohtashami explains why even a 9% mortgage-rate scenario requires a full economic framework rather than a headline assumption.
The brief
Sarah Wheeler and Logan Mohtashami examine why home prices remain positive as mortgage-rate uncertainty, oil volatility and shifting economic headlines complicate the market picture.
Mohtashami argues that lagging Case-Shiller and FHFA measures should be read carefully: current price growth may cool gradually, but the data do not point to an abrupt collapse.
Price-cut percentages offer a sharper read on local conditions, distinguishing ordinary seller behavior from the unusually overheated market of the COVID era.
The widely discussed 9% mortgage-rate scenario depends on assumptions about Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, nominal growth and the duration of geopolitical conflict.
The episode’s central test is inventory: a major national price decline would require much greater inventory growth, faster data movement and distressed selling.