Sep 24, 2026 · 17 min
Strong growth keeps mortgage rates elevated
Is a hot economy good for housing?
The episode examines whether economic strength is helping housing or instead prolonging affordability pressure through higher mortgage rates.
- 1Economic resilience, inflation risks and energy prices could keep mortgage rates elevated despite a more balanced housing market.
- 2Today’s housing conditions look healthier than the COVID-era market, when extreme shortages and distorted demand reshaped the data.
- 3Purchase applications offer a closely watched signal, but year-over-year comparisons remain difficult because rates were lower last year.
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Logan Mohtashami explains why he considers today’s housing market healthier than the distorted COVID-era market, despite widespread industry disagreement.
The brief
Tracey Velt asks Logan Mohtashami whether a strong economy is good for housing when inflation risks, energy prices and mortgage rates remain elevated.
Mohtashami argues that housing is relatively healthy compared with the COVID-era market, when extreme inventory shortages and distorted demand made conditions unusually abnormal.
The conversation turns to whether mortgage rates could reach 8%, with firm economic data, manufacturing activity, unemployment and jobless claims shaping the outlook.
Purchase applications show a smaller year-over-year decline but a slight weekly drop, making near-term movement more useful than comparisons against last year’s lower rates.
The episode’s central tension is clear: economic strength can reduce recession risk while simultaneously keeping borrowing costs high enough to restrain housing demand.