Sep 14, 2026 · 10 min

Stronger core CPI lifts Fed hike odds

Week Begins with Rate Hike Odds High After CPI

A hotter inflation reading puts Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision at the center of market attention, with oil and Treasury yields shaping what comes next.

3 key takeaways

1August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, strengthening expectations for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike.
2Limited economic data before the decision leaves markets watching oil prices and whether the 10-year Treasury yield tests 5%.
3The episode frames inflation momentum and market-sensitive yields as the key signals ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

Don't miss

The episode highlights whether the 10-year Treasury yield will test 5% as markets digest stronger core CPI and higher hike odds.

The brief

August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, stronger than expected, pushing market expectations toward a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike.

Keith Lansford hosts a concise preview of the week ahead, with Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision as the central market event.

Because the calendar offers limited economic data before the decision, oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield become the episode’s key signals.

The standout question is whether the 10-year Treasury yield tests 5%, a move that could give markets direction alongside changing rate expectations.

The episode’s takeaway is straightforward: firmer inflation raises hike odds, while energy prices and Treasury yields may determine the next market reaction.

What was said on this episode

10 statements · 4 positive · 5 negative · 1 neutral

Keith Lansfordon Federal Reserve rate hikePositive0:34
Markets priced an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike Wednesday.
“odds of a 25 basis point hike at 2 p.m. Eastern Time Wednesday were 86%, up from 70% before CPI”
Listen at 0:34
Keith Lansfordon Higher borrowing costsNegative3:41
Higher borrowing costs suppress economic activity and reduce future earnings growth.
“Higher borrowing costs tend to suppress economic activity and hurt future earnings growth.”
Listen at 3:41
Keith Lansfordon U.S. crude oilPositive3:47
U.S. crude exceeded $100 per barrel last week.
“Crude topped $100 per barrel last week in the U.S. for the first time since May”
Listen at 3:47
Keith Lansfordon 10-year Treasury note yieldNegative3:56
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.98%, its highest since late 2023.
“The 10-year Treasury note yield touched 4.98% early Friday, the highest since late 2023”
Listen at 3:56
Keith Lansfordon 10-year Treasury note yieldNegative4:11
The 10-year Treasury yield may test 5% today.
“perhaps setting up a test of 5% today”
Listen at 4:11
Keith Lansfordon Triple Witching DayNegative5:52
Triple Witching could increase market volatility as funds shift positions.
“This could fuel volatility later this week as funds shift positions.”
Listen at 5:52
Keith Lansfordon S&P 500 IndexNeutral7:02
The S&P 500’s 7,600 moving average could remain a near-term pivot.
“Technically, the S&P 500's 50-day moving average near 7,600 could remain a pivot point in days ahead.”
Listen at 7:02
Keith Lansfordon S&P 500 IndexNegative7:13
The S&P 500 remains about 2% below its recent all-time high.
“the index remains only about 2% below all-time highs reached last month”
Listen at 7:13
Keith Lansfordon S&P 500 IndexPositive7:18
The S&P 500 may find support near 7,490.
“Support could be near 7,490”
Listen at 7:18
Keith Lansfordon AI infrastructurePositive7:55
Demand for AI infrastructure could remain strong.
“demand for AI infrastructure could remain bountiful”
Listen at 7:55

Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.