Oct 7, 2026 · 51 min
Technology Reclaims Market Leadership as Sector Trends Shorten
Tech Takes The Lead: Is This Sector Rotation Here To Stay?
The episode offers a data-driven way to distinguish durable sector leadership from rapid rotations driven by headlines, geopolitics, and AI enthusiasm.
- 1Technology has regained leadership, but narrow global participation and short trend durations keep the market vulnerable to reversals.
- 2Asbury Research combines breadth, volume, risk, and asset-flow measures instead of relying on a single market-health signal.
- 3Healthcare remains resilient while energy reacts sharply to geopolitics, making underlying flows more informative than short-term narratives.
Don't miss
Jack Kosar contrasts market-cap-weighted and equal-weight technology exposure, linking broad sector strength to companies presenting themselves as AI beneficiaries.
The brief
Jack Kosar of Asbury Research describes a market where sector rotations arrive unusually fast, making familiar leadership signals less durable and harder to interpret.
Asbury’s framework combines breadth, cumulative volume, risk indicators, and sector ETF asset flows to assess market health without leaning on one measure.
Technology has regained leadership, while utilities benefit from AI-related power demand and healthcare remains resilient as investors favor stable revenue.
Energy shows the limits of headline-driven analysis: geopolitical developments repeatedly alter its outlook, while asset flows provide a steadier read.
The episode’s broader conclusion is cautious rather than bullish: technology is preferred, but narrow leadership and short trends demand attention to flows.
What was said on this episode
19 statements · 9 positive · 5 negative · 5 neutral
Sector rotation trade durations fell from 28–35 days to five–seven days since June 1.
“on average over the last eight years, it's been 28 to 35 days. And since June 1st, it's collapsed down to five to seven”
Listen at 2:22
The S&P 500 has remained within an eight-percent range since June.
“since june actually we've been in an eight percent range uh in the s p 500”
Listen at 9:09
The Asbury Six currently indicates generally healthy market conditions.
“right now it says the market in general is healthy with four or six green”
Listen at 9:32
The S&P 500’s current sideways period is unusually long versus historical periods.
“preliminarily, this is very unique. Normally, we're seeing a lot shorter sideways periods. They're not lasting this long.”
Listen at 11:01
Recent three-to-four-year S&P 500 annual returns averaged near 20%, versus 11–12% historically.
“The three or four year average is close to 20% year on year. If you go back 15 to 20 years, it's closer to 11 or 12%.”
Listen at 11:35
Technology currently leads sector ETF asset flows across all three measured timeframes.
“right now, technology is leading in all three time frames”
Listen at 13:54
Geopolitical volatility in energy markets has shortened observed trend durations.
“it's been one of the main drivers for shortening some of the the lengths that we see in trends”
Listen at 17:15
Energy remained profitable year-to-date despite volatile inflows and outflows.
“I believe it's been up on the year. So as money has flown in and out, it was still a trade that you could make money on if you were in it.”
Listen at 18:25
Global markets generally underperform the S&P 500 over long historical periods.
“the global markets have a real uh they tend to underperform the s p 500”
Listen at 22:29
Only four of 41 tracked country ETFs currently outperform the S&P 500: Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and Brazil.
“Only four of them are outperforming the S&P 500. It's Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, which are all semiconductor technology. And then oddly enough, Brazil.”
Listen at 23:15
Growth stocks are currently substantially outperforming dividend stocks.
“growth is just it's just drastically outperforming dividend stocks”
Listen at 26:35
Neither equities nor bonds have recently established a decisive relative-performance breakaway.
“no distinct breakaway from bonds from equities or equities from from bonds as of late”
Listen at 28:19
Combined assets in the 11 sector SPDRs are currently just below $400 billion.
“We're just shy of 400 billion at the moment”
Listen at 30:14
Combined sector-SPDR assets reached an observed tracking high of approximately $405 billion in August.
“we hit all-time highs in august for this number since i've been tracking it um for 408 or 405 405 billion”
Listen at 30:31
Recent sector-SPDR asset inflows have been primarily driven by technology.
“all this money that's coming in the last couple of a couple of days has really been tech driven”
Listen at 32:38
Technology-sector capital has remained invested somewhat longer during the last three weeks.
“the last three weeks, money has been a little bit more sticky for tech”
Listen at 35:43
Many technology companies rapidly repositioned themselves as AI companies.
“a lot of tech companies became ai companies overnight”
Listen at 37:13
Sector allocations will continue rotating extremely quickly while capital moves rapidly.
“we're going to end up rotating through these sectors extremely quickly because that's how fast the money is moving”
Listen at 40:18
Investors are currently willing to continue participating in the AI trade.
“people are at least content at the moment with riding this AI trade”
Listen at 45:24
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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