Oct 9, 2026 · 1h 5m
Uber deal tests the price of growth across consumer markets
Brazilian Stock Breakout; Diving Into More Small Caps; Uber's Latest Acquisition $NU $MELI $UBER
The discussion connects expensive growth, acquisition discipline, and small-cap durability across technology, Latin America, beer, restaurants, and consumer products.
- 1Uber’s EasyCater acquisition expands corporate catering reach but raises questions about capital allocation and buyback opportunity cost.
- 2Luxury, technology, and consumer valuations look less compelling when cheaper software or smaller businesses offer clearer growth economics.
- 3Commercial laundry distribution and Mama’s Creations illustrate the appeal—and uncertainty—of durable demand in overlooked small caps.
Don't miss
The hosts dissect Uber’s EasyCater acquisition and conclude that the deal makes Uber somewhat less attractive.
The brief
Ryan Henderson and Brett Schaefer open with Hermes and LVMH after major drawdowns, asking whether luxury pricing power can justify valuations that now compete with cheaper software names.
The conversation widens to technology-bubble risks, Brazilian and Latin American opportunities, and Uber’s EasyCater purchase, where corporate catering reach must outweigh acquisition cost and buyback tradeoffs.
Two small-cap cases anchor the episode: a commercial laundry equipment distributor with durable demand, and Mama’s Creations, whose grocery distribution and hot-deli growth face Costco’s bargaining power.
Schneider Electric’s planned PTC acquisition prompts a debate about switching costs, customer ownership, competitive standards, and whether artificial intelligence can raise engineering-software productivity.
Beer, wearables, government investment accounts, and restaurant economics lead to a broader conclusion: durable growth at reasonable valuations remains difficult to identify across consumer businesses.
What was said on this episode
51 statements · 28 positive · 20 negative · 1 mixed · 2 neutral
Hermes valuation has become potentially attractive after its drawdown.
“Hermes is now kind of in that range where it starts to make sense.”
Listen at 2:47
Hermes’s operating numbers remain acceptable despite luxury-market weakness.
“But when you look at the Hermes numbers, they still seem okay.”
Listen at 3:55
Hermes should deliver good long-term investment results below thirty times earnings.
“We're now at under 30, which I think is over the long term, you're going to get good results here.”
Listen at 4:17
Hermes could achieve roughly 10% annual earnings-plus-dividend growth for thirty years.
“Could you say like you have high confidence and high single digit revenue growth, which probably leads to a little bit of bottom line margin expansion? So maybe you could say 10% earnings per share growth or 10% earnings plus dividends growth for 30 straight years.”
Listen at 6:20
Technology valuations are currently extremely high.
“in the tech world, things feel extreme. Valuations feel very extreme.”
Listen at 10:55
Apple is likely to be a strong short because earnings growth may not justify its valuation.
“Apple, but that's not even considered an AI winner. I think it's going to be a great funding short over the next decade because you have – Really, I don't think it's going to be strong earnings growth coupled with a PE of 38.”
Listen at 11:27
Pound is likely to be an excellent short because its valuation is excessive.
“I guess pounds here too, which I think is going to be fantastic short over the next decade just because the valuation is absolutely insane.”
Listen at 11:51
The median technology company is not necessarily excessively valued.
“If you took the median tech company, probably not that crazy in terms of valuation”
Listen at 13:12
Wix is currently preferable to Hermes in the speaker’s portfolio.
“I'd be content switching Hermes for Wix today. I think I would.”
Listen at 16:54
Wix appears extremely undervalued.
“It feels incredibly cheap to me.”
Listen at 17:06
Some cheaper software stocks could potentially double within two years.
“I can potentially, like, and that matters. Like, hey, I can potentially get 100% gain in two years.”
Listen at 17:10
Scaled rideshare companies benefit from operating advantages.
“Any of the scaled players in rideshare tend to take – there's advantages.”
Listen at 17:51
Higher rideshare fill rates attract riders and drivers, reinforcing network effects.
“You're going to attract the most riders because you have the fastest. Fill rates for rides, the fastest fill rates for food delivery, and then more riders, more drivers, and the network effect kind of compounds.”
Listen at 18:02
Brazil’s conservative free-market candidate is expected to win the election.
“the conservative free markets candidate. He's on pace to win”
Listen at 21:17
A conservative free-market victory would probably benefit Brazil’s economy.
“which is probably good for Brazil's economy.”
Listen at 21:26
Latin American economic growth would expand deposits, lending, loan quality, and e-commerce.
“The economies grow a bunch. There's going to be more banking deposits. There's going to be more need for loans. There's going to be better performing loans, and there's going to be more e-commerce shopping.”
Listen at 23:11
Greater Latin American participation in global markets would benefit the world.
“I think it's a net benefit to the world if Latin America participates more and more.”
Listen at 24:09
Uber’s corporate-client base could increase EasyCater bookings through cross-selling.
“there's the potential to cross sell and kind of raise bookings for easy cater”
Listen at 28:34
EasyCater could improve Uber driver utilization.
“it improves driver utilization for Uber”
Listen at 28:56
Large acquisitions should generally be presumed value-negative.
“acquisitions are never great.”
Listen at 30:50
Large acquisitions should be presumed net negative regardless of price or claimed synergies.
“The handicap should be net negative, regardless of what you know they're acquiring, at what price, or what sort of synergies they claim.”
Listen at 31:07
Uber’s acquisitions make its investment case less attractive.
“it makes it a worse story.”
Listen at 31:51
Uber’s acquisition spending may be inferior to repurchasing its shares.
“The only opportunity cost here, not only, but the largest opportunity cost here is, is it better than buying back stock?”
Listen at 32:36
Commercial laundry equipment distribution has a long growth runway and durable demand.
“It should be a long runway to grow and I would say, Ryan, extremely durable industry.”
Listen at 34:56
Commercial laundry equipment will remain necessary.
“This will always be needed.”
Listen at 35:20
EVI Industries’ valuation appears reasonable at roughly twelve times EV/EBITDA.
“This looks pretty reasonable.”
Listen at 36:43
A major customer acquiring an engineering software provider signals its indispensability.
“I think it's a good sign and probably a good sign for all of engineering software when your customer buys you.”
Listen at 38:48
Engineering software can benefit from AI-driven design automation and productivity gains.
“I think they're all AI beneficiaries too because the amount of time you can save and productivity that can go up because you can automate some of these design stuff and do all sorts of iterations I think would be very helpful.”
Listen at 39:33
Regulatory and safety standards create a competitive moat for engineering software.
“that can create a little bit of a moat too similar to the design ones for architecture”
Listen at 40:10
Industry-standard engineering software is highly durable and difficult to displace.
“these are maybe not forever businesses, but extremely durable and hard to disintermediate.”
Listen at 41:17
Children’s index-fund accounts should outperform holding nothing over twenty years.
“They'll do better than nothing over 20 years, I bet, by the time the person becomes an adult.”
Listen at 43:26
Constellation Brands’ distributor sell-through declined 0.5 percent.
“the depletions, so what distributors sold on to the stores, was actually down half a percent.”
Listen at 50:13
U.S. beer consumption appears to remain in decline.
“I don't know if beer really is back. It sounds like consumption is still net down.”
Listen at 50:23
GLP-1 drugs could persistently reduce alcohol consumption for ten years.
“it could be just a persistent headwind for the next 10 years.”
Listen at 50:49
Beer shipments are unlikely to resume sustained growth amid GLP-1 use.
“In the world of GLP-1s, it just doesn't seem that likely to me.”
Listen at 51:06
Beer companies should rely more on pricing power than volume growth.
“Pricing power is the better way to go about it”
Listen at 51:15
Public equity valuations are near historical extremes despite Aura’s IPO cancellation.
“stocks are at all-time highs. PE is in 99th percentile.”
Listen at 52:46
Investor sentiment is poor toward technology companies without AI exposure.
“if you are not an AI play, it feels like sentiment is really poor.”
Listen at 52:57
Aura sought an IPO valuation above ten times sales and $11 billion market capitalization.
“they're trying to go out at more than 10 times sales, market cap of $11 billion.”
Listen at 54:43
Aura’s wearable-ring customer churn is approximately fifteen percent annually.
“your churn is like, again, for a ring that's supposed to last, I don't know, people are supposed to wear them forever, right? 15% a year.”
Listen at 54:51
Hardware sales differ fundamentally from scalable AI software businesses.
“hardware sales is not the same business.”
Listen at 55:57
Anthropic’s reported annual recurring revenue has not grown since June.
“Hasn't grown since June.”
Listen at 56:12
Anthropic’s annual recurring revenue has remained nearly flat since June.
“It pretty much hasn't grown since.”
Listen at 56:40
Mama’s Creations achieved twenty-nine percent three-year revenue growth.
“Three-year revenue growth, 29%.”
Listen at 58:56
Mama’s Creations trades at approximately 2.4 times enterprise value to sales.
“EV2 sales, 2.4. So not terrible.”
Listen at 59:13
Mama’s Creations expects a hot-deli tailwind, but it may not support the investment thesis.
“I think they believe there's a tailwind in the hot deli section. I don't know if that's a great investment thesis though.”
Listen at 59:35
Costco exerts substantial bargaining pressure on suppliers.
“no one gouges suppliers like Costco.”
Listen at 1:00:59
Restaurants, apparel, and CPG currently belong in the speaker’s avoid-or-too-difficult category.
“CPG for me, right now, the don't touch or the too hard pile is restaurants, apparel, and probably CPG.”
Listen at 1:01:54
Chipotle generated twenty percent annualized returns over twenty years.
“Chipotle has generated 20% CAGR for 20 years in this drawdown.”
Listen at 1:02:27
Restaurants can maintain high returns on invested capital without comparable-sales growth.
“the return on invested capital can still be high even if comp sales don't grow.”
Listen at 1:02:44
Restaurant businesses can generate attractive returns despite limited business breadth.
“with restaurants, I think it's a little bit more. It's not the widest of businesses, but they can generate good returns”
Listen at 1:02:54
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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