Oct 28, 2026 · 29 min
AI hardware rally meets a pivotal week for markets
Entering a possibly pivotal key few days.
Big technology earnings and decisions from the FOMC, ECB, and Bank of Japan could test whether AI enthusiasm can withstand broader market risks.
- 1AI hardware stocks strengthened, but Seagate Technology diverged as investors weighed the sector’s durability.
- 2Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon earnings converge with meetings from all three major central banks.
- 3The discussion widens from AI leadership to corporate self-delusion, pension risks, and passive investing.
Don't miss
The episode’s central tension is whether AI enthusiasm can hold as major technology earnings and three central-bank meetings arrive together.
The brief
John Hardy opens with a review of strong prior-session and overnight performance across much of the AI hardware sector, while Seagate Technology moves differently.
The episode considers whether expectations around a possible Anthropic IPO are influencing sentiment, adding a new question to an already crowded AI narrative.
The coming days bring Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon earnings alongside meetings from the FOMC, ECB, and Bank of Japan, making the market’s reaction unusually consequential.
Hardy broadens the frame beyond near-term prices to AI leadership, corporate self-delusion, pension-system risks, and the effects of passive investing.
What was said on this episode
23 statements · 9 positive · 9 negative · 1 mixed · 4 neutral
AI-related and semiconductor stocks generally performed strongly
“the strong performance of AI-related stocks, not, of course, not universally, but in general and in semiconductors especially”
Listen at 1:12
Excessive hyperscaler spending could negatively affect the hyperscalers
“if they're seen as excessive on the spending side, that could be negative for those. to companies specifically.”
Listen at 1:53
Very large hyperscaler spending could benefit other AI-related stocks
“if that spending is seen as exceptionally large, it could be more positive for some of the other stocks in the whole AI universe”
Listen at 2:00
Visa trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26
“the company trades with the 26 PE”
Listen at 3:03
Visa has a market capitalization of approximately $750 billion
“$750 billion company is Visa these days”
Listen at 3:21
Seagate shares reacted negatively by 5%
“a negative 5% reaction”
Listen at 3:27
Boeing shares fell 10%, which Hardy judged negatively
“Boeing down 10%, a very ugly look”
Listen at 4:10
Boeing was poorly managed and liable for serious safety-related negligence
“The company was so poorly run and was so liable for some horrible situations related to plane safety and outright negligence”
Listen at 5:23
The Uranium Eura ETF rose 4.3%
“the Uranium Eura ETF was up 4.3% yesterday”
Listen at 6:26
The REMX Rare Earth ETF rose approximately 5%
“the REMX Rare Earth ETF, these are not recommendations, just mentioning a couple of instruments, was up around 5% yesterday”
Listen at 6:33
The Israeli election appears close and its outcome remains uncertain
“it looks like it is a very close vote, very uncertain who is going to emerge as the coming prime minister”
Listen at 7:03
Kalshi and Polymarket should not be relied on for election odds
“this is another example of why we shouldn't use Calci or Polymarket”
Listen at 7:12
The upcoming U.S. midterms will produce a Democratic blue wave
“I do think we are going to see a blue wave”
Listen at 8:50
Hardy's base case is a reasonably strong Democratic midterm victory
“the base case is a decent blue wave”
Listen at 9:07
Gold is currently holding near the $4,000 level
“Gold sort of holding that $4,000 level so far”
Listen at 10:55
“you need to see something impulsive into the 5750 plus area, in my view, to suggest that silver is posting some kind of significant low here”
Listen at 11:18
Dovish central-bank policy would marginally support precious metals
“if they're going to go dovish, that you would think would be at the margin supportive for precious metals”
Listen at 11:36
Oil and refined-product prices need to fall substantially for geopolitics to become irrelevant
“we need to head a lot lower in oil prices and refined product prices”
Listen at 13:13
Europe's seasonal natural-gas inventory build has been poor
“the seasonal build has been poor”
Listen at 13:27
The asymmetric risk favors upside in USD/CAD
“the asymmetric risk is for dollar Canada upside”
Listen at 18:30
The ECB likely leans more dovish than forward pricing implies
“I think they lean dovish relative to what the forward pricing is”
Listen at 18:41
More North Sea oil production would benefit the UK economy and sterling
“North Sea oil, whether they open up for More production there would, I think, be a very positive sign for the UK economy and for sterling as well”
Listen at 19:33
Markets may pivot downward as skepticism about AI continues
“do we get a pivot back to the downside here as skepticism continues?”
Listen at 27:31
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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