Signals

Across 223 votes from 145 experts, theme sentiment is mildly bearish at -0.19, slightly weaker than a week ago but far less bearish than a month ago.

Long-dated Treasuries became slightly less bearish as Sven Carlin and Barry Ritholtz switched long on attractive bond returns and valuations, while Paul Donovan switched short over oil-driven inflation and another possible rate increase.

• “Therefore, I would put it here a little bit better than market return with low risk.”Sven Carlin · Modern Value Investing with Sven Carlin · 2026-10-11 · Listen
• “This is the first time this century bonds are attractive.”Barry Ritholtz · Excess Returns · 2026-10-14 · Listen
• “If it is just first-round effects, then US interest rates will need to rise once more”Paul Donovan · UBS On-Air: Market Moves · 2026-10-14 · Listen

Across 130 experts with recent calls, net sentiment is mildly bullish at +0.17, down from +0.32 a week ago; sentiment on the US stock market itself fell from +0.31 to +0.20.

US tech sentiment also cooled, while small-cap sentiment remained evenly split.

Michael Batnick and Ed Carson switched from short to long, while Ben Carlson switched from long to short.

• “I don't think now is the time to get bearish.”Michael Batnick · The Compound and Friends · 2026-10-13 · Listen
• “we could definitely go a lot higher”Ed Carson · Stock Market Today With IBD · 2026-10-15 · Listen
• “there's probably going to be like a 30% swift bear market because some hiccup in AI.”Ben Carlson · Animal Spirits Podcast · 2026-10-14 · Listen

Batnick said broad bearish positioning was unwarranted, Carson saw substantial further upside, and Carlson warned that an AI hiccup could trigger a swift bear market.

• “I don't think now is the time to get bearish.”Michael Batnick · The Compound and Friends · 2026-10-13 · Listen
• “we could definitely go a lot higher”Ed Carson · Stock Market Today With IBD · 2026-10-15 · Listen
• “there's probably going to be like a 30% swift bear market because some hiccup in AI.”Ben Carlson · Animal Spirits Podcast · 2026-10-14 · Listen

Karen Finerman also switched long, saying inflation, tariffs and AI investment favor large companies, while Sven Carlin remained short because he considered the S&P 500 expensive.

• “this is a time that favors large companies”Karen Finerman · CNBC's "Fast Money" · 2026-10-15 · Listen
• “the sap 500 that i think is pretty expensive now and will likely lead to a low return three four percent at best over time”Sven Carlin · Modern Value Investing with Sven Carlin · 2026-10-11 · Listen

Across chips and AI infrastructure, 136 of 197 votes are bullish, but net sentiment has eased to +0.41 from +0.51 a week ago and +0.62 a month ago.

CoreWeave turned bearish and ASML became less bullish over the week, while TSMC grew more bullish.

Despite CoreWeave's bearish majority, Jim Cramer called it his preferred neocloud investment, and Vasu Kasibhotla described its valuation as relatively low versus peers.

• “the only one that I trust and want to be in is CoreWeave.”Jim Cramer · Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer · 2026-10-13 · Listen
• “CoreView, at this point, compared to even its neocloud peers, obviously, is at a discount currently. relatively low valuation compared to its peers.”Vasu Kasibhotla · Bloomberg Intelligence · 2026-10-15 · Listen

Sven Carlin called ASML too expensive and Dave Sequeira saw room for its shares to fall, while Antonella Frongillo said it should trade above its historical average.

• “Summa summarum, ASML is too expensive. likely to lead to a low return long term.”Sven Carlin · Modern Value Investing with Sven Carlin · 2026-10-11 · Listen
• “I think it also has the potential to fall even further from here.”Dave Sequeira · The Morning Filter · 2026-10-12 · Listen
• “So the stock should trade above the historical average.”Antonella Frongillo · Bloomberg Tech · 2026-10-14 · Listen

Jason Hall expected TSMC to keep growing as an industry leader, while Steve Cress expected another record quarter for Micron, which remains strongly bullish despite a modest weekly dip.

• “I think TSMC still... uh, continues to grow and is still, is still going to be the leader.”Jason Hall · Chit Chat Stocks · 2026-10-17 · Listen
• “you're going to have another quarter of record revenue and record earnings.”Steve Cress · Investing Experts · 2026-10-11 · Listen

Across 105 experts and 146 votes, Big Tech sentiment remains bullish but edged down to +0.33 from +0.35 a week ago.

Amazon turned more bullish and Meta strengthened, while Oracle became more bearish.

Jim Cramer switched from long to short on Oracle, saying investors should not own it; John Hardy made the same switch on Tesla, doubting that its flying-car technology would become commercially meaningful.

• “this is not a stock that I think you should own.”Jim Cramer · Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer · 2026-10-15 · Listen
• “I don't think it's commercially meaningful, or at least I doubt it will be.”John Hardy · Saxo Market Call · 2026-10-16 · Listen

Kate Rooney favored Amazon among hyperscalers, while Courtney Garcia called Apple's forward-earnings valuation expensive.

• “So my top pick is Amazon.”Kate Rooney · Closing Bell · 2026-10-15 · Listen
• “I personally think that this is the valuation of 39 times forward earnings is expensive here.”Courtney Garcia · CNBC's "Fast Money" · 2026-10-16 · Listen

The 30-day window now has 78 experts, up from 46 a week ago and 15 a month ago; across 190 votes, 132 are yes, 53 no and 5 mixed, while six of eight experts back a Democratic Kansas Senate win against a 38% YES market price.

Support for a Democratic Texas governor win rose from one week ago to three of four experts, despite a 24% YES price; Iowa Senate support also rose, to four of six experts against a 42% price.

Mike Murphy said the Kansas Democratic Senate candidate will win, and Katty Kay called Adam Hamilton well suited to the state, while Justin Young said Roger Marshall will win.

• “I actually think Kansas is going to win.”Mike Murphy · Hacks On Tap · 2026-10-13 · Listen
• “the Democrats in Kansas have nominated somebody who, if you went into a lab and tried to manufacture the ideal Democratic candidate for a conservative-leaning state like Kansas, you would be hard pushed to come up with somebody better than Pastor Adam Hamilton”Katty Kay · The Rest Is Politics: US · 2026-10-12 · Listen
• “My suspicion is that Marshall is going to win”Justin Young · Politics Politics Politics · 2026-10-13 · Listen

In Texas, Mike Nelson said Abbott could face serious trouble, and Bill Kristol said Abbott and Ken Paxton are likely to lose their respective races.

• “maybe you actually see Texas go blue and maybe even some of the polls are showing that Abbott is in trouble. That would be a massive earthquake.”Mike Nelson · The Dispatch Podcast · 2026-10-13 · Listen
• “I think, I think Paximili is going to lose. And I think Abbott may lose as well.”Bill Kristol · The Bulwark Daily · 2026-10-12 · Listen

Florida Senate calls are less one-sided than a week ago, though four of six experts still back a Democratic win against a 10% YES price: Justin Young favored a Democrat over the party’s governor candidate, while Carol Markowitz said Byron Donalds would win comfortably.

• “I believe that Florida would vote for a Democratic senator before a governor”Justin Young · Politics Politics Politics · 2026-10-15 · Listen
• “I think Byron Donalds runs away with it.”Carol Markowitz · Politics Politics Politics · 2026-10-15 · Listen

Cluster net sentiment rose to +0.50 from +0.40 a week ago as active experts grew from 33 to 71; the Financials theme also strengthened to +0.52 from +0.27.

Bank of America moved from bearish to evenly split, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley remained bullish but lost some support.

David Ciaverini expected a near-term bank rally, Ayako Yoshioka found financial stocks attractive at current levels, and Tim Seymour said mixed earnings were no reason to sell banks.

• “I am expecting pretty good relief rallies from these banks over the next few days.”David Ciaverini · Closing Bell · 2026-10-12 · Listen
• “we do like financials here”Ayako Yoshioka · Closing Bell · 2026-10-12 · Listen
• “this isn't a reason to go sell banks.”Tim Seymour · CNBC's "Fast Money" · 2026-10-13 · Listen

On Bank of America, Stephanie Link favored reducing the position, while Daveed Rosenberg saw substantial room to improve return on equity.

• “I'm trimming pretty big time Bank of America and I'm adding to Wells Fargo.”Stephanie Link · Halftime Report · 2026-10-14 · Listen
• “there's a lot of ROE potential and the market likes a value opportunity once in a while.”Daveed Rosenberg · CNBC's "Fast Money" · 2026-10-14 · Listen

Jim Cramer planned to buy Goldman Sachs on a dip, but Steve Weiss said Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley would be difficult to hold over six to nine months.

• “I'm going to do it again.”Jim Cramer · Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer · 2026-10-14 · Listen
• “I'd say for the next six months, maybe nine months, these are going to be very tough stocks. to hold.”Steve Weiss · Halftime Report · 2026-10-14 · Listen
• “I'd say for the next six months, maybe nine months, these are going to be very tough stocks. to hold.”Steve Weiss · Halftime Report · 2026-10-14 · Listen