Markets · as of Thu, Oct 22, 2026
The prediction markets experts are calling Every Polymarket question podcast experts took a side on in the last 30 days, next to its odds, ranked by how many experts hold a view. One vote per expert: the side of their latest day's calls.
How many experts say yes and how many say no, against the odds, is on Signals Pro .
Prediction markets by how many experts hold a view, last 30 days Market Odds Experts Latest call Watch Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? 2026 midterms 93% 38 Oct 21 + Watch Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? 2026 midterms 67% 24 Oct 21 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 68% 21 Oct 21 + Watch Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Fed, rates & bonds 16% 19 Oct 20 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 70% 14 Oct 21 + Watch Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Fed, rates & bonds 88% 14 Oct 17 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 39% 12 Oct 21 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 66% 12 Oct 21 + Watch Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Fed, rates & bonds 81% 12 Oct 14 + Watch US recession by end of 2026? Fed, rates & bonds 8% 10 Oct 21 + Watch Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Fed, rates & bonds 11% 9 Oct 20 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 72% 8 Oct 21 + Watch Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? Fed, rates & bonds 25% 8 Oct 21 + Watch Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? Fed, rates & bonds 53% 8 Oct 20 + Watch Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%? 2026 midterms 77% 7 Oct 22 + Watch Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? AI labs & IPOs 68% 7 Oct 21 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 44% 7 Oct 21 + Watch Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 20% 7 Oct 21 + Watch Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? AI labs & IPOs 19% 6 Oct 21 + Watch Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? AI labs & IPOs 6% 6 Oct 16 + Watch Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%? 2026 midterms 71% 6 Oct 16 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 9% 6 Oct 16 + Watch AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027? AI labs & IPOs 20% 5 Oct 21 + Watch Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 97% 5 Oct 21 + Watch Will the Kansas 2026 Senate race be within 5%? 2026 midterms 72% 5 Oct 20 + Watch Will Anthropic not IPO before 2028? AI labs & IPOs 1% 5 Oct 15 + Watch Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%? 2026 midterms 68% 4 Oct 21 + Watch Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 2028 presidential race 44% 4 Oct 21 + Watch Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 26% 4 Oct 21 + Watch Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Elections abroad 46% 4 Oct 21 + Watch Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? Fed, rates & bonds 6% 4 Oct 20 + Watch Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? AI labs & IPOs 72% 4 Oct 19 + Watch US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Geopolitics & war 72% 4 Oct 19 + Watch Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 2028 presidential race 7% 4 Oct 15 + Watch Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? AI labs & IPOs 95% 4 Oct 14 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? 2026 midterms 34% 4 Oct 13 + Watch Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Elections abroad 27% 3 Oct 21 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 12% 3 Oct 20 + Watch Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? 2026 midterms 12% 3 Oct 20 + Watch Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December? US stock market 50% 3 Oct 13 + Watch AI bubble burst in 2026? AI labs & IPOs 9% 3 Oct 13 + Watch Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Crypto 5% 3 Oct 9 + Watch Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Fed, rates & bonds 8% 3 Oct 7 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? 2026 midterms 80% 3 Oct 6 + Watch Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October? Gold & metals 46% 2 Oct 22 + Watch Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? AI labs & IPOs 62% 2 Oct 21 + Watch Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? AI labs & IPOs 56% 2 Oct 21 + Watch Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in October? Oil, gas & energy 0% 2 Oct 21 + Watch Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? 2026 midterms 3% 2 Oct 21 + Watch Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? 2026 midterms 22% 2 Oct 21 + Watch U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? Geopolitics & war 11% 2 Oct 21 + Watch Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%? 2026 midterms 68% 2 Oct 20 + Watch Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? AI labs & IPOs 25% 2 Oct 20 + Watch Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Elections abroad 35% 2 Oct 20 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 87% 2 Oct 20 + Watch Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? AI labs & IPOs 2% 2 Oct 19 + Watch Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? Elections abroad 38% 2 Oct 19 + Watch Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%? 2026 midterms 62% 2 Oct 19 + Watch Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Geopolitics & war 10% 2 Oct 17 + Watch Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Oil, gas & energy 12% 2 Oct 16 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? 2026 midterms 20% 2 Oct 16 + Watch Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%? 2026 midterms 34% 2 Oct 15 + Watch Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in October? Oil, gas & energy 1% 2 Oct 15 + Watch Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 101.50 in October? Other 100% 2 Oct 15 + Watch Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 2028 presidential race 5% 2 Oct 15 + Watch Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? AI labs & IPOs 0% 2 Oct 14 + Watch Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027? Fed, rates & bonds 14% 2 Oct 14 + Watch Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? 2026 midterms 5% 2 Oct 14 + Watch US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Geopolitics & war 14% 2 Oct 13 + Watch Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? AI labs & IPOs 21% 2 Oct 13 + Watch Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (LOW) in December? US stock market 50% 2 Oct 13 + Watch Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Fed, rates & bonds 70% 2 Oct 12 + Watch Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? Oil, gas & energy 100% 2 Oct 12 + Watch Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Fed, rates & bonds 4% 2 Oct 12 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? 2026 midterms 96% 2 Oct 11 + Watch Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 2028 presidential race 0% 2 Oct 10 + Watch Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? 2026 midterms 89% 2 Oct 9 + Watch Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%? 2026 midterms 12% 2 Oct 8 + Watch Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Oil, gas & energy 1% 2 Oct 8 + Watch Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? AI labs & IPOs 96% 2 Oct 8 + Watch Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Fed, rates & bonds 0% 2 Oct 7 + Watch Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Fed, rates & bonds 71% 2 Oct 7 + Watch Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? AI labs & IPOs 9% 2 Oct 7 + Watch Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? US stock market 35% 2 Oct 6 + Watch Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026? Fed, rates & bonds 21% 2 Oct 5 + Watch Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? AI labs & IPOs 60% 2 Sep 28 + Watch Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? AI labs & IPOs 36% 2 Sep 28 + Watch US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? AI labs & IPOs 6% 2 Sep 25 + Watch Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? 82% 1 Oct 22 + Watch Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? 64% 1 Oct 22 + Watch Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Geopolitics & war 2% 1 Oct 22 + Watch Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T? AI labs & IPOs 5% 1 Oct 21 + Watch Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government? Elections abroad 28% 1 Oct 21 + Watch Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 2028 presidential race 16% 1 Oct 21 + Watch Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 2028 presidential race 17% 1 Oct 21 + Watch Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 2028 presidential race 14% 1 Oct 21 + Watch US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026? AI labs & IPOs 74% 1 Oct 21 + Watch Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Elections abroad 50% 1 Oct 21 + Watch Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat? 82% 1 Oct 20 + Watch Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? AI labs & IPOs 20% 1 Oct 20 + Watch
Market themes The broad calls: the stock market, rates, oil, gold, the dollar, each with its benchmark fund.
PodLume Signals is a structured record of opinions expressed on podcasts, attributed to the speaker who voiced them. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and no statement here is verified for accuracy. Outcome verdicts are a mechanical comparison of an instrument's price move against a benchmark over a fixed window and say nothing about future performance. Odds are Polymarket's.