Markets · Geopolitics & war

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

What podcast experts are calling on this question, one vote per expert, each linked to the episode it was said in.

Odds of YES

72%
closes Nov 4, 2026

Experts with a view

4
last 30 days

Latest call

Oct 19
as of the latest episode

The experts' calls

Each expert's current view: the side of their latest day's calls in the last 30 days, newest first.

  • Ali Vaez · Hidden Forces

    no

    “there is a risk that either the Iranians would try to mount an October surprise by escalating in a way that would allow them to break this blockade and the economic pressure that the U.S. is putting on them, or that the U.S. would do so either to give the president a victory in the run-up to the midterms.”

    Oct 19, 2026 · Episode

  • Krystal Ball · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

    no

    “I think this mother of all bombs, whether it's pre-midterm, post-midterm, I think it's going to happen. I think there's almost no question at this point.”

    Oct 15, 2026 · Episode

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PodLume Signals is a structured record of opinions expressed on podcasts, attributed to the speaker who voiced them. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and no statement here is verified for accuracy. Outcome verdicts are a mechanical comparison of an instrument's price move against a benchmark over a fixed window and say nothing about future performance. Odds are Polymarket's.