Clusters · as of Tue, Oct 20, 2026

Where the experts are most active

Sectors, markets and events ranked by how many distinct experts took a side in the last 30 days: the split, where sentiment is heading and the calls behind it.

Net expert sentiment, −1 (all bearish / no) to +1 (all bullish / yes). Days with fewer than 5 experts are blank.

events

2026 midterms

82 experts · 200 calls

  • 143 yes
  • 52 no
  • 5 mixed

Midterm experts favor Democratic upsets more than markets do

Why

The 30-day window now includes 77 experts, up from 47 a week ago and 16 a month ago; across 187 votes, 130 back YES, 52 back NO and five are mixed.

    Texas governor calls flipped toward a Democratic win, with three of four experts now backing YES against a 24% market price; Kansas has six of eight backing Democrats against a 38% price, though its expert support softened this week.

      Mike Nelson said Abbott could face serious trouble, while Bill Kristol said Abbott is likely to lose.

      • “maybe you actually see Texas go blue and maybe even some of the polls are showing that Abbott is in trouble. That would be a massive earthquake.”Mike Nelson · The Dispatch Podcast · 2026-10-13 · Listen
      • “I think, I think Paximili is going to lose. And I think Abbott may lose as well.”Bill Kristol · The Bulwark Daily · 2026-10-12 · Listen

      Mike Murphy said the Kansas Democrat will win, but Justin Young said Roger Marshall will hold the seat.

      • “I actually think Kansas is going to win.”Mike Murphy · Hacks On Tap · 2026-10-13 · Listen
      • “My suspicion is that Marshall is going to win”Justin Young · Politics Politics Politics · 2026-10-13 · Listen

      Florida Senate calls also favor Democrats despite a 10% YES price: Justin Young rated a Democratic Senate win more likely than a governor win, while Carol Markowitz said Byron Donalds would win comfortably.

      • “I believe that Florida would vote for a Democratic senator before a governor”Justin Young · Politics Politics Politics · 2026-10-15 · Listen
      • “I think Byron Donalds runs away with it.”Carol Markowitz · Politics Politics Politics · 2026-10-15 · Listen

      As of 2026-10-18.

      • Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?36 experts · 33↑ 3↓
      • Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?19 experts · 10↑ 5↓
      • Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?18 experts · 13↑ 5↓
      • Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?13 experts · 12↑ 1↓
      • Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?12 experts · 7↑ 5↓
      Signals: where podcast experts are most active · PodLume