Clusters · as of Tue, Oct 20, 2026

Where the experts are most active

Sectors, markets and events ranked by how many distinct experts took a side in the last 30 days: the split, where sentiment is heading and the calls behind it.

Net expert sentiment, −1 (all bearish / no) to +1 (all bullish / yes). Days with fewer than 5 experts are blank.

markets

Fed, rates & bonds

149 experts · 232 calls

  • 111 bullish
  • 112 bearish
  • 9 mixed

Credit turns bearish as Fed pause divides experts

Net −0.17 · ▲ 0.03 vs a week ago

-1.00.0+1.0Aug 22Sep 19Oct 18
Why

Across 147 experts and 229 votes, high-yield credit turned bearish, while October Fed hold calls are nearly split despite an 88% market YES price.

    All four experts backing a 6% Treasury yield before 2027 contrast with a 6% market YES price; Jesse Felder cited a technical target near that level.

    • “leaves the target close to six percent”Jesse Felder · Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart · 2026-10-15 · Listen

    As of 2026-10-18.

    • Long-dated Treasuries106 experts · 42↑ 58↓
    • Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?17 experts · 7↑ 10↓
    • High-yield credit16 experts · 5↑ 10↓
    • Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?14 experts · 6↑ 7↓
    • Another Fed rate hike in 2026?13 experts · 13↑ 0↓

    markets

    US stock market

    136 experts · 185 calls

    • 105 bullish
    • 69 bearish
    • 11 mixed

    US stock sentiment cools despite bullish reversals

    Net +0.17 · ▼ 0.18 vs a week ago

    -1.00.0+1.0Aug 22Sep 19Oct 18
    Why

    Across US stocks and related themes, net sentiment remains mildly bullish but fell to +0.17 from +0.35 a week ago, even as the number of experts with calls rose from 80 to 131.

      The broad US market remains bullish but cooled sharply; tech sentiment edged lower, while small-cap experts are evenly split.

        Michael Batnick, Ed Carson and Jim Cramer switched from bearish to bullish: Batnick saw no case for broad bearishness, Carson saw room for further gains, and Cramer cautioned against trying to time the market.

        • “I don't think now is the time to get bearish.”Michael Batnick · The Compound and Friends · 2026-10-13 · Listen
        • “we could definitely go a lot higher”Ed Carson · Stock Market Today With IBD · 2026-10-15 · Listen
        • “Never try to make a judgment of the market because we're thinking the market is going to go up over time.”Jim Cramer · Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer · 2026-10-16 · Listen

        Going the other way, Ben Carlson switched to bearish over the risk of an AI-related selloff, while Jim Bianco switched to bearish because he expects Fed uncertainty to raise the market risk premium.

        • “there's probably going to be like a 30% swift bear market because some hiccup in AI.”Ben Carlson · Animal Spirits Podcast · 2026-10-14 · Listen
        • “there is going to be a higher risk premium in the market”Jim Bianco · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 2026-10-18 · Listen

        Karen Finerman said inflation, tariffs and AI investment favor large companies, while Steve Chiavarone backed small caps on a healthy economy, despite the even split among small-cap experts.

        • “this is a time that favors large companies”Karen Finerman · CNBC's "Fast Money" · 2026-10-15 · Listen
        • “We think small caps, having gotten past that with an economy that's doing relatively well, will be positioned to continue to lead.”Steve Chiavarone · UBS On-Air: Market Moves · 2026-10-14 · Listen

        As of 2026-10-18.

        • US stock market107 experts · 60↑ 38↓
        • US tech / Nasdaq52 experts · 28↑ 24↓
        • US small caps15 experts · 7↑ 6↓
        • Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December?3 experts · 3↑ 0↓
        • Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?2 experts · 2↑ 0↓
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