Nov 11, 2026 · 43 min
AI rebound tests NVIDIA, spending durability and rate pressure
Closing Bell 11/11/26
The rally depends on whether AI demand and power investment can withstand government scrutiny, higher rates and signs of a moderating consumer.
- 1NVIDIA faces a difficult balance between long-term earnings potential and the reputational risk of prolonged government scrutiny.
- 2CoreWeave results and Anthropic’s planned IPO revive the AI trade, but data-center spending and unused-chip risks remain unresolved.
- 3Higher rates, energy downgrades and shifting consumer momentum complicate a rebound otherwise led by AI, semiconductor and power stocks.
Don't miss
The panel’s debate over whether to hold, sell or buy NVIDIA captures the episode’s central conflict between AI earnings potential and investigation risk.
The brief
A broad rebound in AI, semiconductor, software and power stocks collides with government scrutiny of NVIDIA and questions about Jensen Huang’s alleged ties to Megaspeed.
Stephanie Link, Dan Greenhaus and Malcolm Ethridge debate whether NVIDIA’s earnings potential outweighs the risk of investigations and a prolonged reputational overhang.
CoreWeave’s results and optimism around Anthropic’s planned IPO revive the AI trade, while panelists question speculative data-center construction, unused chips and grid demand.
Consumer spending is still growing but moderating as markets price further Federal Reserve hikes, raising the stakes for AI financing and equity valuations.
The episode widens its lens to Costco’s special dividend, energy downgrades, Apple’s record high and late-day movers including Corning, Zenta and Oklo.
The standout tension is whether AI demand can sustain a broader rally with the 10-year yield near 5%, NVIDIA earnings ahead and the Fed’s path unresolved.
What was said on this episode
25 statements · 15 positive · 7 negative · 1 mixed · 2 neutral
Stephanie Link believes NVIDIA can earn $20 per share in fiscal 2028.
“I'm holding them because I still believe that they can earn $20 a share in fiscal 28.”
Listen at 3:34
Stephanie Link is holding NVIDIA but not buying because CEO uncertainty is binary.
“But I'm not buying here because it's binary, Scott. What happens to the CEO is binary.”
Listen at 3:46
Stephanie Link predicts NVIDIA shares will fall if Huang leaves.
“But I think if he is out, the stock falls.”
Listen at 4:38
Dan Greenhaus expects NVIDIA to trade flat during prolonged congressional hearings.
“At best, at this point, the stock basically trades flat for that time period and does absolutely nothing, which means it's dead money for investors.”
Listen at 5:07
Dan Greenhaus recommends against buying NVIDIA’s dip during investigations.
“So definitely not the time to be buying into it and trying to catch this dip”
Listen at 5:15
Dan Greenhaus sees greater odds of NVIDIA downside than flat-to-positive returns.
“I just think that the likelihood that the shares have a downside is far greater than the likelihood that the shares are flat to positive a month from now, three months from now, 12 months from now.”
Listen at 5:40
Dan Greenhaus believes AI investment remains active and data-center fears were excessive.
“the AI trade really is rolling on, and the data center backlash may have been overdone”
Listen at 9:35
Malcolm Ethridge expects Anthropic’s IPO to go well.
“So I think this will go well.”
Listen at 12:39
Stephanie Link considers Anthropic’s $1.18–$1.3 trillion valuation better than $2 trillion.
“$1.18 to $1.3 trillion is a much better valuation, Scott, than $2 trillion.”
Listen at 13:26
“Maybe it's $3 trillion to $4 trillion. That's still a lot of money.”
Listen at 15:01
Stephanie Link expects more than $1 trillion of grid spending.
“we're going to continue to spend a trillion plus on the grid.”
Listen at 15:18
Stephanie Link expects more than $1 trillion of power spending due to insufficient supply.
“I think you're also going to spend a trillion dollars plus on power because we don't have enough power.”
Listen at 15:34
Stephanie Link says power-related companies are sold out through 2030 and cannot meet demand.
“These companies are sold out, Scott, until 2030. They can't meet demand.”
Listen at 18:04
Stephanie Link expects employed consumers with rising wages to keep spending.
“As long as that happens, the consumer will continue to consume.”
Listen at 20:49
Malcolm Ethridge predicts the Federal Reserve will not hike 50 basis points next meeting.
“The Fed's not hiking 50 basis points at the next meeting.”
Listen at 21:00
Malcolm Ethridge says 25–50 basis-point hikes do not affect hyperscalers materially.
“the hyperscalers, are not affected by 25 or 50 basis points.”
Listen at 22:03
Dan Greenhaus expects the Fed will not sharply tighten enough to derail AI investment.
“since none of that is going to happen, party on.”
Listen at 22:59
Stephen Armitage expects the Clarity Act to remain formally dead but influential in regulation.
“I think the smart money's on clarity being dead in letter, alive in spirit.”
Listen at 32:39
Dan Greenhaus says beaten-down AI hardware stocks are leading the rebound.
“the hardest hit groups are now leading the way, the AI hardware food chain.”
Listen at 35:39
Seema Mody frames AI as potentially lifting wafer-fabrication equipment demand.
“whether AI continues to lift wafer fabrication equipment over the coming years”
Listen at 38:00
Dan Greenhaus expects markets to retain an upward bias while AI financing continues.
“Until it does, we still think the bias is higher.”
Listen at 40:01
Dan Greenhaus recommends favoring technology stocks.
“we still would really favor tech.”
Listen at 40:26
Dan Greenhaus sees 10-year yields above 5.25% as a risk for real estate and regional banks.
“North of 5.25, we start talking about commercial real estate, we start talking about regional bank considerations.”
Listen at 40:46
Dan Greenhaus maintains an upward bias toward technology stocks.
“we still think that that bias is higher for tech”
Listen at 41:27
The panel expects two to two-and-a-half Fed hikes next year.
“we think the two to two and a half for next year is probably the right number.”
Listen at 41:57
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Books & mentions
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