Oct 23, 2026 · 44 min
Oil shock and AI doubts rattle markets before earnings
Closing Bell Overtime: Markets Search for Opportunity After a Wild Week 10/23/26
The episode connects surging energy costs, tighter AI financing, geopolitical risk, and upcoming earnings and Federal Reserve decisions to the market’s next test.
- 1Oil above $100 raises inflation risks for retailers, farmers, refiners, and consumers as transportation costs climb.
- 2Investors question whether massive AI infrastructure spending can produce durable profits beyond advertising and core technology businesses.
- 3SpaceX’s possible wireless network could pressure carriers while testing whether its threat to telecom is financial or mostly narrative.
Don't miss
Adam Crisafulli and Brad Conger debate whether the AI selloff signals tighter infrastructure funding and weaker future margins ahead of earnings and the Fed.
The brief
Markets finish a turbulent week with technology stocks under pressure, oil above $100, higher bond yields, and earnings and Federal Reserve decisions looming.
John Belton and the hosts debate whether Meta’s potentially massive AI infrastructure spending can be monetized, and whether benefits are spreading beyond advertising and technology.
Brent crude rises above $117 as Middle East tensions intensify, while diesel costs threaten discount retailers, farmers, biofuels, refiners, and food prices.
The episode widens the risk map from Chinese tech weakness and the PHP 2-Shell vulnerability to SpaceX’s possible wireless network and its threat to carriers.
Adam Crisafulli and Brad Conger assess whether the AI selloff reflects funding strain, margin concerns, or capital-market indigestion before major earnings and the Fed meeting.
The closing discussion finds opportunity in depressed emerging markets and strong interest in Apple’s new iPhone duo, even as investors confront a volatile backdrop.
What was said on this episode
31 statements · 16 positive · 14 negative · 1 neutral
The market is progressing through a normal corrective process.
“if this is a normal corrective process, we're working our way through it pretty well”
Listen at 1:40
Markets need evidence of AI monetization beyond the infrastructure supply chain.
“we need more proof that there's AI monetization happening outside of this supply chain”
Listen at 4:21
AI infrastructure companies’ fundamentals will benefit for several years.
“the fundamentals are benefiting this year, next year, probably for the next several years”
Listen at 4:53
AI monetization remains viable.
“I do feel like the monetization story is alive and well”
Listen at 5:16
Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft benefit from AI in core businesses.
“These are companies where they are AI beneficiaries in their core business.”
Listen at 6:31
OpenAI and Anthropic will grow revenue six- or sevenfold this year.
“combined OpenAI and Anthropic probably get a six or seven X revenue this year”
Listen at 7:42
Autonomous driving is an emerging AI monetization area.
“Autonomous driving, very clear.”
Listen at 7:53
Higher oil prices may persist longer than previously expected.
“maybe this is going to be longer term than we thought”
Listen at 9:13
Oil transportation costs have reached record levels.
“transportation costs are now at record”
Listen at 10:21
The tariff changes might benefit Senator Collins politically.
“This might be a win for Senator Collins”
Listen at 14:36
The severity of future Chinese regulatory action against Alibaba is uncertain.
“we don't really know the extent to how hard the hammer is going to fall on Alibaba”
Listen at 15:38
Unpatched legacy internet devices will cause many breaches in coming months.
“you're going to see a lot of breaches happening in the coming months from this”
Listen at 16:37
Low-skilled adversaries can conduct nation-state-level attacks cheaply using AI.
“many different adversary groups with very low skills now able to conduct nation state level attacks for the cost of tokens”
Listen at 16:42
SpaceX may take years, or never, to threaten wireless carriers.
“it could take years for SpaceX to actually do anything that mounts a threat, if at all”
Listen at 19:27
A SpaceX terrestrial wireless network may not offer attractive returns.
“it's just not clear that there's an attractive return here”
Listen at 21:16
SpaceX is unlikely to acquire a wireless carrier.
“I don't think it's realistic that they buy one”
Listen at 22:06
SpaceX spectrum bidding could raise spectrum prices.
“if they start bidding for spectrum, that could really bid up the price of spectrum”
Listen at 24:16
Higher spectrum prices would harm wireless carriers.
“That's unequivocally bad news for the carriers if if the price of spectrum goes up.”
Listen at 24:36
A strong Anthropic IPO above $1.5 trillion would boost the AI industry.
“if Anthropic does well, if it comes out at a one and a half trillion plus valuation and trades well beyond that, that would be, you know, it would be a big shot in the arm for the industry”
Listen at 31:29
The midterms could trigger an upside release in markets.
“it could just be a little bit of a lull around the midterms. Maybe that's the trigger that releases the market's upside.”
Listen at 32:28
The investors begin buying Microsoft at a 20-times forward multiple.
“Microsoft gets to a 20 forward multiple. we start to participate.”
Listen at 32:52
A less hawkish Fed tone would signal less aggressive tightening.
“if a worse were to change its tone even a tiny bit at the margin, that certainly would send a powerful signal that perhaps they aren't going to be as aggressive with tightening as assumed”
Listen at 33:51
Chinese competition will reach the commodity chip market within a few years.
“The commodity chip market, China, is coming. I think it's going to be a couple of years.”
Listen at 35:59
South Korean semiconductor companies have relatively secure future profits.
“the semiconductors in Korea have pretty locked in profits going forward”
Listen at 36:04
South Korean semiconductor stocks are extremely cheap.
“They are extremely cheap.”
Listen at 36:09
Emerging-market financial stocks offer attractive opportunities.
“I'm actually really excited about financials across the emerging markets universe”
Listen at 37:28
Ping An has suffered a severe decline this year.
“individual plays like Ping An that, you know, have just been slaughtered this year”
Listen at 37:36
Emerging-market assets have room to improve from low valuations.
“there are opportunities for improvement from a very low valuation basis”
Listen at 38:26
Domestic healthcare and insurance companies with dividends can be defensive and grow.
“if you can buy that chiefly with a good dividend, it will be defensive over time and it has good growth prospects”
Listen at 39:19
“they were out of that walk-in inventory”
Listen at 40:54
Consumers showed strong interest in physically examining the iPhone Duo’s foldable crease.
“people wanted to see what the crease looked like”
Listen at 42:53
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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