Oct 30, 2026 · 1h 25m
Alaska’s ballot fight previews a volatile Senate map
Democrats Play Dirty in Alaska
The episode connects an Alaska candidate controversy and election-law dispute to broader questions about Republican vulnerability, economic frustration, and the party’s future.
- 1A second Dan Sullivan candidate created an Alaska ballot fight over voter confusion, campaign ethics, and ranked-choice voting.
- 2New competitiveness in South Carolina and Kansas suggests Republicans face a broader Senate threat than expected.
- 3Election-night results could test whether Republicans can separate their candidates from Trump and reshape the 2028 presidential field.
Don't miss
The panel’s examination of a second Dan Sullivan candidate shows how a confusing name on an Alaska ballot could become a national test of campaign ethics and election law.
The brief
Steve Hayes, Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and John McCormack open with Alaska’s second Dan Sullivan candidate, asking whether the effort was corrupt manipulation or ordinary hardball politics.
The Alaska dispute becomes an election-law test: ranked-choice voting, voter intent, and a Justice Department lawsuit collide, while experts cited by the panel see the federal case as unlikely to succeed.
John McCormack and Mike Warren widen the map to South Carolina, Montana, and Kansas, where unexpected competitiveness reflects a difficult political environment for Republicans.
The panel argues that affordability may matter more than optimistic economic messaging, as voters’ lived experience challenges claims that the economy is performing well.
The closing stakes are larger than Senate control: early results could determine whether Republicans distance themselves from Trump and how the party approaches 2028.
What was said on this episode
34 statements · 8 positive · 17 negative · 1 mixed · 8 neutral
Democratic activity in Alaska may be legally permissible despite distorting the Senate race.
“potentially likely legal activity by the Democrats to screw up the Alaska Senate race”
Listen at 10:49
The New York Times revealed Democratic officials lied about involvement in recruiting Dan Sullivan.
“the New York Times story did was reveal that that was a lie”
Listen at 14:29
The non-incumbent Dan Sullivan is legally on Alaska's ballot.
“The fact of the matter is, is that the other Dan Sullivan is on the ballot legally.”
Listen at 16:32
Dan Sullivan's efforts to qualify for the ballot were not illegal.
“there is nothing that is illegal about his efforts and his ability to get on the ballot”
Listen at 16:39
Democrats mishandled the Alaska ballot strategy and made an unnecessary mistake.
“The Democrats really... really screwed this up. And it was so dumb. It was so dumb and unnecessary.”
Listen at 17:08
Two Dan Sullivans likely do not benefit Mary Peltola under ranked-choice voting.
“it doesn't give you an advantage to have two Dan Sullivans on the ballot if you're Mary Peltola”
Listen at 17:22
The Alaska ballot effort was shady, conducted in bad faith, and gross.
“I think this was shady. It was bad faith. It was gross.”
Listen at 20:45
The Alaska ballot controversy will probably hurt Mary Peltola politically.
“I think it'll probably, to the extent it has any impact at all, it'll backfire.”
Listen at 21:49
Mary Peltola's team did not commit an illegal act through the ballot effort.
“what they did was not illegal”
Listen at 24:51
The Alaska controversy will increase voter turnout during the final election week.
“the last week of the election, I think it will get some people off their couches and into the polls”
Listen at 27:22
The Alaska ballot controversy will affect the election.
“I think that it will matter.”
Listen at 27:34
A ballot ranking only citizen Dan Sullivan does not transfer to Senator Dan Sullivan.
“Your vote does not get apportioned then to Senator Dan Sullivan. It just goes poof. It goes away.”
Listen at 29:11
Darlene Graham will probably win South Carolina's Senate race.
“If I had to guess today, I would still guess that she wins.”
Listen at 32:23
Fox News polling is considered credible and high quality.
“Fox News polling is serious and good.”
Listen at 32:53
J.D. Vance's Montana visit indicated the state's races were nationally important.
“the fact that J.D. Vance was going to Montana, told me it was important to go to Montana”
Listen at 34:31
Montana's high fuel prices are contributing to competitive Republican races.
“Diesel is over $6 a gallon. Gas is very expensive.”
Listen at 35:44
J.D. Vance's Montana pitch largely avoids emphasizing Donald Trump.
“Most of his pitch for Republicans, for voting for Republicans, it kind of waves away Donald Trump or almost ignores that Donald Trump is currently president.”
Listen at 38:38
J.D. Vance's anti-globalist message may create near-term political problems.
“I can see some problems in the near future for Vance with that message.”
Listen at 41:11
The 2026 Democratic wave could reach deeply into traditionally Republican states.
“I think there's a real case to be made that this really is different from 2018 or 2020 and that you could see a big wave reaching pretty deep into red states.”
Listen at 49:46
Republicans were likely to suffer major losses in the 2026 election.
“we were likely to see a Republican bloodbath in this election”
Listen at 50:29
The U.S. economy recorded approximately 3.4% GDP growth in the latest quarter.
“3.4% GDP growth”
Listen at 51:28
Current economic growth may not benefit ordinary workers and consumers.
“it does not trickle down to everyday workers and consumers quite yet, or maybe arguably ever.”
Listen at 54:56
Republican claims that the economy is excellent have damaged their credibility.
“I think they just stripped the gears of their credibility.”
Listen at 57:03
A Washington Post poll found 37% of Republicans favor moving away from Donald Trump.
“The Washington Post poll that was out last week found that 37% of self-identified Republicans”
Listen at 1:00:48
A Democratic trifecta and ending the filibuster would enable major legislative changes.
“this is going to open up a whole lot of big legislative changes a couple years from now if Democrats win a trifecta and get rid of the filibuster”
Listen at 1:02:35
Mississippi's Senate race is unlikely to turn Democratic.
“I'm skeptical that Mississippi is going to turn blue in that Senate race.”
Listen at 1:03:49
Donald Trump is reportedly planning a major military assault on Iran after the midterms.
“there's a lot of reports that Trump is planning a major assault on Iran”
Listen at 1:09:20
Iran will anticipate and respond to a potential U.S. military assault.
“there is 0.0 chance that the Iranians haven't thought long and hard about what might be coming and they get a vote.”
Listen at 1:09:59
Donald Trump will reject responsibility for losses and respond aggressively.
“He will not accept blame. And that means he will lash out in ways.”
Listen at 1:10:27
The meat and veganism controversy will not affect the election.
“I don't think any of this will have any impact at all on the election.”
Listen at 1:18:03
James Tallarico's veganism will not change Texas Senate election results.
“The veganism isn't going to move the needle.”
Listen at 1:19:09
The meat-related controversy will have little effect on the Texas Senate race.
“I don't think the meat versus whatever stuff is going to matter that much.”
Listen at 1:19:52
Trump's rally performances do not necessarily influence median voters.
“it doesn't necessarily translate to the median voter”
Listen at 1:20:25
The United States faces approximately $40 trillion in debt, wars involving Iran, and a China threat.
“Like $40 trillion in debt, like wars with Iran, like the threat from China”
Listen at 1:21:35
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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