Nov 3, 2026 · 24 min
Apple’s cash challenge meets Shopify’s AI-commerce bet
Is Apple Losing Its Memory?
The episode tests whether mature giants and richly valued growth companies can still justify investor expectations through capital allocation and new markets.
- 1Apple’s huge cash balance creates a scale problem: buybacks help, but acquisitions or supply-chain investment must meaningfully move the needle.
- 2Palantir’s government growth cannot alone support its valuation, while Shopify’s AI-commerce strategy offers a broader commercial expansion path.
- 3SpaceX telecom rumors and Carl Icahn’s refinery deal highlight how consolidation opportunities can collide with infrastructure limits and regulatory uncertainty.
Don't miss
The sharpest investing comparison comes when the hosts weigh Shopify’s AI-commerce expansion against Palantir’s dependence on commercial growth to support its valuation.
The brief
Apple’s first earnings report under John Ternus raises a familiar problem for a mature giant: strong cash generation, buybacks, and fewer obvious ways to surprise investors.
The hosts debate whether reported folding-iPhone problems signal a serious product risk, then ask whether Apple should pursue Perplexity, keep buying shares, or invest in memory-chip capacity.
Shopify and Palantir both delivered strong results but disappointed markets priced for exceptional growth; the hosts favor Shopify’s AI-commerce strategy over Palantir’s government-led upside.
The episode closes with rumors of a SpaceX and Starlink telecom strategy and Carl Icahn’s refinery purchases, exposing the infrastructure and regulatory risks behind consolidation.
Across the companies, the central question is valuation: excellent operations may still fall short when investors have already priced in nearly everything going right.
What was said on this episode
24 statements · 10 positive · 9 negative · 2 mixed · 3 neutral
Apple has exceptional purchasing power in its supply chain.
“Apple is the most powerful buyer in the supply chain. A company can double or triple just because Apple becomes their customer.”
Listen at 1:53
AI data centers are outbidding Apple for memory components.
“AI data centers are outbidding Apple for parts.”
Listen at 2:23
Apple gained one trillion dollars in market capitalization since late June.
“Apple has gained a trillion dollars in market share since late June.”
Listen at 3:12
Apple’s folding-phone breakage is real but anticipated.
“It's a real problem, but it's not one that Apple didn't anticipate.”
Listen at 4:25
Apple’s folding-phone breakage is currently a small problem.
“For now, it's a pretty small problem.”
Listen at 5:18
Apple’s “it just works” halo has largely disappeared.
“I think that's sort of gone.”
Listen at 5:53
Apple should buy Perplexity to create a model-agnostic Siri.
“Why not buy a company that's good at just kind of, you know, whatever model works, just making it work and integrate that in so they're not tied to anyone going forward?”
Listen at 7:23
Apple could invest in memory suppliers or prepay agreements to secure chips.
“Apple could do something similar with the memory chips it needs, either prepaying for memory agreements. or directly investing in one of the memory makers to secure the memory that it needs”
Listen at 7:55
Apple should become more aggressive in controlling its supply chain.
“I'd like to see Apple kind of get a little more aggressive on controlling its supply chain.”
Listen at 8:13
Palantir and Shopify valuations price in near-perfect performance.
“when you're Palantir and you're trading at 110 times forward earnings, or with Shopify trading at only... 80 times expected earnings, you are, as the cliche goes, priced for perfection”
Listen at 10:36
Palantir recorded its lowest bookings growth since 2023.
“It was their lowest bookings gained since 2023.”
Listen at 11:07
Palantir’s government business cannot justify its valuation multiple alone.
“you just can't capture enough revenue, even if you captured all of the revenue to justify the multiple.”
Listen at 12:31
Shopify’s issue is valuation rather than business performance.
“it's a valuation problem, not a business problem.”
Listen at 15:03
AI shopping requires infrastructure for checkout and payments.
“AI shopping needs someone to handle checking in payouts, not just automated shopping”
Listen at 15:57
Shopify is trying to embed its platform across AI shopping surfaces.
“they're really trying to insert their platform everywhere.”
Listen at 16:10
Shopify’s stagnant stock performance could continue.
“I think that could continue.”
Listen at 16:48
Matt would add Shopify at current prices.
“So Shopify, I own out of the two. So that's the one I would add to today, especially if these current prices hold.”
Listen at 17:01
Starlink can provide only adequate-to-mediocre cellular service.
“It can do an adequate to mediocre job providing us with cellular service.”
Listen at 19:28
Starlink needs terrestrial infrastructure to compete in cellular service.
“You need some sort of terrestrial element to really compete.”
Listen at 19:34
The three major U.S. telecom operators generate nearly $350 billion annually.
“the big three do almost $350 billion in revenue per year.”
Listen at 20:01
Marathon Petroleum is selling refineries near the top of the cycle.
“the best operator, the most experienced operator in the industry is selling assets at the top of the cycle.”
Listen at 21:53
Marathon Petroleum is receiving the better side of the refinery transaction.
“So I think Marathon's getting the better end of this deal”
Listen at 22:01
Carl Icahn’s refinery acquisition was an exceptionally favorable deal.
“I thought this was an absolute steal.”
Listen at 22:29
Refining industry valuations may be at their highest in 15–20 years.
“I have no idea why Carl Heikon thinks that this is a good time to be going out and consolidating the refining industry when it's arguably valued at its most expensive time in the past 15 to 20 years.”
Listen at 22:32
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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