Oct 5, 2026 · 21 min

Brazil rally tests markets as EV demand resets

Brazil’s Election Rally & Are EVs Back?

The episode connects political risk, shifting EV economics, food inflation, and AI hardware supply to the forces moving markets now.

3 key takeaways

1Tesla beat delivery expectations, but expiring tax credits and weaker rivals’ EV strategies complicate the market’s outlook.
2Brazil’s close election runoff lifted local assets and companies with Brazilian exposure, while trade and inflation risks remain.
3Memory and storage suppliers are adding capacity, but AI demand may keep supply tight for years.

Don't miss

Brazilian markets rallied sharply after a surprisingly close first election round, as investors priced a potential Flávio Bolsonaro victory.

The brief

John Certeau and Hanna Krueger open with Tesla deliveries and the broader EV reset: tax credits are expiring, gasoline prices may revive demand, and hybrids are gaining traction.

Tesla beat delivery expectations, but deliveries fell year over year after last year’s tax-credit rush; Ford and GM are pulling back as Tesla retains market share.

Brazil’s unexpectedly close presidential runoff sent the real, Ibovespa, and U.S.-listed Brazil investments higher, with Flávio Bolsonaro’s market-oriented platform driving expectations.

The Brazil trade extends from MercadoLibre and Nubank to beef: record exports meet low U.S. cattle inventories and drought, helping explain rising American meat prices.

The final tension is supply versus AI demand: Micron, Seagate, and Western Digital are expanding around data centers, but Toshiba’s added capacity may take years to arrive.

What was said on this episode

8 statements · 7 positive · 1 negative

John Quoteauon U.S. dealer EV inventoryPositive4:24
Dealer EV inventory declined from about 180 to 78 days of supply.
“Dealer EV inventory went from about 180 days of supply earlier this year to 78 days in August.”
Listen at 4:24
Kayla Lopezon Toyota electrified lineupPositive5:02
Toyota’s electrified lineup rose over 28% and represents 57% of U.S. sales.
“Toyota's electrified lineup, which leans heavily on hybrids, was up over 28% and now accounts for 57% of all of Toyota's U.S. sales.”
Listen at 5:02
Kayla Lopezon Hyundai hybridsPositive5:11
Hyundai hybrid sales increased 39%.
“And sales of Hyundai hybrids are also up 39%.”
Listen at 5:11
John Quoteauon Pure electric vehiclesNegative5:22
John Quoteau does not think pure electric vehicles have returned.
“So I don't think that EVs are back, you know, pure electric vehicles.”
Listen at 5:22
John Quoteauon Tesla EV market sharePositive5:56
Tesla’s EV market share is 52%, up from 43% last year.
“Tesla's share of the EV market is 52% this year, up from 43% last year.”
Listen at 5:56
John Quoteauon Tesla EV market sharePositive6:03
Tesla’s rising EV share is mostly caused by shrinking competition.
“But that's mostly because competition is shrinking.”
Listen at 6:03
Kayla Lopezon Flavio BolsonaroPositive10:27
Flavio Bolsonaro leads the race and promises conservative, market-oriented fiscal reforms.
“Flavio Bolsonaro is the surprise current frontrunner in the presidential race, and he touts more conservative free market policies and has promised some fiscal reforms like reduced public spending or tackling the currently high public debt or interest rates.”
Listen at 10:27
John Quoteauon Bolsonaro victoryPositive11:03
A Bolsonaro victory would benefit Donald Trump.
“a win for Bolsonaro would also represent a big win for President Donald Trump”
Listen at 11:03

Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.