Aug 28, 2026 · 1h 53m
Canada trade fight exposes Republican midterm vulnerabilities
Trade War with Canada, Explained! (with Evan Scrimshaw)
The episode connects a stalled Canada–U.S. trade deal to affordability, Republican factional conflict, polling uncertainty, and the fight for Senate control.
- 1Tariffs and grocery prices could make the Canada dispute a direct Republican liability before the 2026 midterms.
- 2Texas Republicans face an expensive, divided Senate fight as James Talarico builds definition against Ken Paxton.
- 3Forecasting methods can reinforce political narratives even when analysts use technically sound data and models.
Don't miss
The Texas discussion crystallizes the episode’s central argument: Republican factional conflict may matter as much as the national political environment.
The brief
Justin and Evan Scrimshaw open with stalled negotiations between Donald Trump and Mark Carney, arguing that tariffs create political risk even as both governments seek a deal.
The trade fight becomes an affordability story: grocery prices, beef imports, and Republican complacency could shape how voters judge the party before the midterms.
Texas supplies the clearest case study, with James Talarico building a favorable image while Ken Paxton faces Republican divisions, donor resistance, and a costly media environment.
Their midterm framework weighs a Republican hold against Democratic Senate gains, while a critique of Patrick Ruffini’s polling argument highlights the danger of self-deception.
The conversation then swerves into NFL forecasts and football broadcasting, comparing Tom Brady’s commentary, Tony Romo’s future, and the value of restraint in the booth.
What was said on this episode
39 statements · 23 positive · 10 negative · 2 mixed · 4 neutral
A Canada–United States trade deal will probably occur around Labor Day.
“the history of the Donald Trump presidency is there will probably be a deal sometime Labor Day.”
Listen at 5:41
Without Trump’s intervention, Canadian conservatives would have won a larger landslide.
“there would have been a landslide bigger than Obama in 2008 for the conservatives if Donald Trump didn't gift the liberals the last election.”
Listen at 6:10
A prior trade deal could have exchanged broad tariffs for relief from sectoral tariffs.
“the deal that we could have signed a year ago would have been agreeing to across the board tariffs for some relief on sectoral tariffs.”
Listen at 7:36
The White House aims for improved economic sentiment before the midterms.
“that's their goal is that the turbulent summer gives way to cooler weather and cooler feelings and the economy is in the right position.”
Listen at 10:09
The United States has substantially reduced its demands in the trade negotiations.
“the American ask is down significantly.”
Listen at 11:14
Glenn Youngkin likely would have lost without early campaign spending.
“if Youngkin hadn't spent that money, he probably loses by two”
Listen at 16:57
James Talarico has been more effective than Ken Paxton at defining negative perceptions.
“Tallarico's done a much better job cementing the negatives there than Paxton has.”
Listen at 20:49
Ken Paxton’s delayed campaigning has already caused lasting electoral damage.
“the damage has been done. The damage you're taking three months off has been done.”
Listen at 22:04
The Texas Senate race will become closer over time.
“I do think this is going to tighten.”
Listen at 23:31
A serious Republican Texas defense requires spending at least $100 million.
“if you're going to do this, it needs to be a nine-figure buy.”
Listen at 26:54
The Canada trade war will be resolved by Labor Day.
“We both think that this is going to get wrapped up by Labor Day.”
Listen at 28:05
Both governments should avoid escalation in the Canada trade dispute.
“it makes the most sense for everyone to not be dumb.”
Listen at 28:25
Alberta’s proposed referendum primarily serves the premier’s party-management needs.
“it's party management dressed up as a referendum.”
Listen at 31:23
Evan favors a Democratic Senate-only midterm win scenario.
“I want to believe it's a win in DEM only. Like, that is where I feel the most comfortable with this year”
Listen at 50:30
Current polling implies five Democratic Senate gains and no Democratic losses.
“right now there are five Democratic flips and no Democratic losses if you just believe the polls.”
Listen at 51:53
Democrats could gain 20 House seats while winning only one Senate seat.
“there's a universe where Democrats win 20 seats in the House and win one sentence.”
Listen at 57:27
Michigan Democrats should clearly either support or distance themselves from Hassan Piker.
“Either stand by him or say, oh, I have no, I don't, don't say I have no current plans to campaign with him in the general. Either say, I appreciate the work that Hassan Piker has done. He is a valuable member of the coalition. I don't agree with him on everything, but I'm focused on the issues that matter to Michiganders.”
Listen at 58:58
Hassan Piker has direct influence over an excitable segment of the Democratic audience.
“He has a lifeline directly into a very excitable part of their audience.”
Listen at 1:01:46
Opponents will use Hassan Piker’s statements against El-Sayed.
“The Hassan stuff is going to be used against him.”
Listen at 1:04:17
Jon Ossoff will probably win Georgia narrowly under current conditions.
“with the environment, Ossoff probably wins narrowly, like, very narrowly.”
Listen at 1:06:54
The current political environment makes an Ossoff loss to Brian Kemp unlikely.
“the environment is too blue, I think, for Ossoff to lose that to Kemp”
Listen at 1:07:24
Historical Senate polling comparisons require accounting for distinct cycle-specific contexts.
“you are throwing in four years, three of which have legitimate context specific years, plus Brett Kavanaugh in 2018.”
Listen at 1:10:17
Patrick Ruffini’s regression is technically correct but politically uninformative.
“it is entirely factually accurate. Everything that Rafini has put out is his regression is correct. It is also completely valueless.”
Listen at 1:11:39
Summer polling’s Democratic tilt may reflect reality but has little predictive value.
“the, like, oh, the polls in the summer are always good for Democrats that has been an accurate reflection of reality and has basically, in my opinion, no predictive value moving forward.”
Listen at 1:13:33
The Democratic Party has shifted radically between 2004 and 2024.
“the Democratic party of 2004 and the Democratic party of 2016 let alone the Democratic party of 2024 are radically different parties.”
Listen at 1:18:09
Greg Abbott will win Collin and Denton counties and may win Tarrant County.
“Craig Abbott is going to win. Craig Abbott is going to easily win Colin Denton. Hell, he might even win Tarrant.”
Listen at 1:22:20
John Cornyn would currently lead the Texas Senate race by four points.
“if John Cornyn won, he'd be leading by four right now.”
Listen at 1:23:34
Evan’s NFL model favors Seattle and Jacksonville while disfavoring the Rams and Denver.
“I'm big on Seattle. I think I'm down a little bit on the Rams. I'm definitely down on Denver. Big on Jacksonville.”
Listen at 1:25:33
The Chicago Bears could win their division and perform well.
“The Bears, I think, is one of my hottest takes because I actually believe they're going to be fine and they could very easily win the division”
Listen at 1:27:05
Caleb Williams will improve substantially this season.
“Caleb Williams is going to be a lot better this year.”
Listen at 1:27:26
The Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks will reach the Super Bowl.
“Chargers, Seahawks, Super Bowl.”
Listen at 1:29:52
Denver will not be good this season.
“That team was fraudulent when it was happening. They're certainly not going to be good.”
Listen at 1:29:59
The New England Patriots will win 11 games, fewer than last season.
“So, 11 wins. It's a significant regression from last year.”
Listen at 1:30:18
The Pittsburgh Steelers will win their division by two games.
“my hot take on the Steelers is that they're going to win the division I think they're going to win it by two games”
Listen at 1:32:17
Evan strongly disfavors the Baltimore Ravens this season.
“I am extremely out on this team.”
Listen at 1:33:42
Aaron Rodgers is more likely to become a coach than a political candidate.
“coach because I think he's going to think about running for office he's going to take the meetings that he would need to take to run for office realize that everyone in politics like that the reason that he hates most people in politics is because of the nature of politics and then just go be like, just going to be like a god of an offensive coordinator.”
Listen at 1:37:25
Aaron Rodgers’s intelligence would make him an excellent coach.
“I think his intelligence will make him a great coach.”
Listen at 1:38:30
David Ellison may be using a morals violation to escape Tony Romo’s contract.
“Is David Ellison so cheap that he's trying to cut costs by getting off Romo's contract by calling it a morals violation?”
Listen at 1:39:41
Tony Romo will return to broadcasting, potentially at Fox.
“he'll resurface. I mean, maybe he takes the number two job at Fox”
Listen at 1:45:55
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.