Oct 12, 2026 · 1h 7m
Commodity investors face a long supply squeeze
Why the Commodity Bull Market Is Just Beginning
Years of weak investment may leave energy and raw-material markets vulnerable to prolonged supply constraints, but the cycle still has an eventual limit.
- 1Underinvestment and delayed production responses can keep commodity markets tight for roughly a decade after prices signal the need for supply.
- 2Gold may have further upside, while silver, uranium, and selected producers offer more targeted exposure than broad mining conglomerates.
- 3The commodity cycle may be starting rather than entering a permanent super cycle, because high prices eventually stimulate new supply.
Don't miss
Adam Rosenzwajg explains why calling a commodity boom a super cycle can mislead investors into treating a temporary regime as permanent.
The brief
Adam Rosenzwajg argues that commodities are cyclical, but supply responds so slowly that years of underinvestment can leave markets tightening long after prices rise.
The episode’s central distinction is between a large commodity cycle and a permanent super cycle: high prices eventually attract supply and end even powerful booms.
Gold remains a favored form of portfolio insurance, while silver could enter a catch-up phase as central-bank buying and diversification away from the dollar support demand.
Oil’s longer-term supply picture looks more constrained as U.S. shale growth slows; the Strait of Hormuz illustrates how disruptions can obscure underlying demand.
The investment preference is for targeted commodity pure plays, including uranium exposure, rather than diversified mining groups, with allocation rising only when cycle conditions justify it.
What was said on this episode
36 statements · 17 positive · 11 negative · 2 mixed · 6 neutral
Commodities are in the early stages of a strong bull run.
“Today, unlike 2012, we very much are in the early stages of a strong bull run.”
Listen at 2:25
Commodity price signals typically precede new supply by about ten years.
“There's a 10-year lag from when the market gives you the commodity price signal”
Listen at 8:02
New commodity supply projects take 10–15 years to come online.
“It takes 10 to 15 years.”
Listen at 8:44
A 10–15-year commodity cycle is long enough to support investment.
“a 10 to 15-year cycle, that's investable. That's not a trade.”
Listen at 12:12
The current commodity cycle is at its very beginning.
“We're at the very, very beginning.”
Listen at 17:42
Annual upstream oil spending of $500 billion is insufficient.
“we're spending about $500 billion a year upstream. First of all, I don't think that's anywhere near enough.”
Listen at 17:55
Commodity valuations were cheaper only at the 2020 bottom.
“the only time we've ever been cheaper. was when commodities bottomed in 2020.”
Listen at 19:56
Lithium experienced a capital-expenditure boom while other commodities saw declines.
“Lithium had a CapEx boom while everything else had a CapEx bust.”
Listen at 22:14
Gold’s bull market is not over and will reach new highs this cycle.
“I don't think... That the gold bull market is over. I think that we're going to make new highs this cycle.”
Listen at 22:51
Gold holders are likely to be pleased by holding through 2035.
“By 2035, if your listeners would like to hold their gold, I suspect they'll be very happy that they did so.”
Listen at 23:11
Gold will decline before rising later.
“I think gold will move lower before it moves higher.”
Listen at 23:25
One ounce of gold bought approximately 90 barrels of oil.
“a single ounce of gold could buy 90 barrels of oil.”
Listen at 24:08
Investors should reduce precious-metals exposure after silver’s catch-up rally.
“when you see the silver catch-up rally, that's when you want to look for higher ground and maybe rotate.”
Listen at 26:50
The current interest-rate cycle is at the beginning of a hiking phase.
“we're in a rate hike cycle right now. We're at the beginning of that.”
Listen at 28:57
Gold retracements after silver signals typically range from 20% to 45%.
“you typically will move down anywhere from 20 was the most mild pullback to 45 percent.”
Listen at 29:41
U.S. shale oil production has stopped growing.
“the shales have slowed down and they're essentially no longer growing.”
Listen at 37:40
Shale oil production growth slowed from 2020 through 2026.
“growth is going to slow. And that's exactly what has been happening from 2020 to 2026.”
Listen at 43:15
U.S. shale oil production has peaked.
“Shale has peaked.”
Listen at 43:25
U.S. shale faces persistent production declines despite drilling.
“I think that's what we're facing with the shales.”
Listen at 44:02
Shale’s peak could trigger a long-term oil bull market.
“I think that's exactly right.”
Listen at 44:14
Global crude-oil demand growth is about one million barrels daily annually.
“Crude oil demand growth has been fairly steady at about a million barrels a day, year on year.”
Listen at 44:53
A prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure would create a major oil-market problem.
“we're going to have a major problem.”
Listen at 45:46
The oil market is currently in a worsening crisis.
“I think we are in the midst of a crisis as we speak. I think that crisis is getting worse.”
Listen at 46:32
Refinery throughput fell without an equivalent decline in refined-product consumption.
“I don't think the consumption of those refined products has gone down. It's just the refinery runs have gone down.”
Listen at 49:47
Crude oil prices will eventually rise as the supply problem emerges.
“eventually the crude oil price will lift.”
Listen at 55:44
Crude oil will rise to approximately $100 per barrel.
“$100 crude is going to come up to match that.”
Listen at 56:14
Suncor and CNQ are preferred oil-sands holdings.
“We really like the oil sands. Suncor and CNQ are two big holdings of ours.”
Listen at 56:38
Uranium prices will continue rising substantially.
“uranium, I think, is going to continue to move much higher.”
Listen at 57:57
The uranium market will remain tight.
“it's going to be a tight market”
Listen at 58:50
Adam’s firm owns Cameco as a uranium investment.
“We own Cameco”
Listen at 59:25
Small modular reactor technology is excellent.
“the technology is excellent.”
Listen at 1:00:42
Investors should avoid publicly listed small modular reactor companies for now.
“I would stay clear of them for the time being.”
Listen at 1:01:12
TerraPower will win and dominate the next SMR cycle.
“the company that will win and dominate that cycle is actually not publicly traded right now. It's Bill Gates's TerraPower.”
Listen at 1:01:18
Targeted commodity pure plays offer more value than diversified miners.
“we've always found there to be more value in going into a little bit more targeted pure play companies.”
Listen at 1:01:53
A typical portfolio should allocate roughly 10–15% to commodities.
“call it probably 10% to 15% across the entire cycle.”
Listen at 1:03:39
Commodity allocation should reflect investor risk tolerance rather than opportunity size.
“I would size it not to the opportunity. I would size it to the risk tolerance.”
Listen at 1:04:14
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.